Handicapper's Corner: Del Mar Debutante Stakes (G1)

Brilliant Field Set for Del Mar Debutante

By: Laurie Ross, PedigreePower

Since 2000, nine fillies who would later be crowned Champion Two Year Old have contested the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante(G-1). Four of them, Halfbridled, Sweet Catomine, Stardom Bound, and Songbird won the Debutante and completed a Debutante/BC Juvenile Fillies double.

 

This year a field of only five hopefuls will enter the starting gate at Del Mar. 

BRILL(8-5) had an impressive debut.  After bobbing at the start, the filly made up ground, going five-wide around the turn, and in a furious charge, ran down Del Mar Mary, who later finished a distant second to Bellafina, yet held off the charge of Boujie Girl by a nose. By prominent filly sire Medaglia d'Oro out of a stakes-winning Malibu Moon mare, Brill is a large, long-striding filly who will improve with distance. She’s trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who trained Champion Songbird, a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro who captured the Del Mar Debutante in 2015.

MOTHER MOTHER (2-1) was impressive in her debut, leading the entire way to win by 6 1/2 lengths.  Although she has high knee action, she lengthened stride down the lane. By Pioneerof The Nile, Mother Mother is a half-sister to 2014 Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve and should love the extra distance. Trainer Bob Baffert has sent out seven Debutante winners since 1997, but the last was in 2012. Mother Mother gets a jock switch from Drayden Van Dyke to Joe Talamo, as Van Dyke opted to stick with Brill. 

WATCH ME BURN (15-1) is the most experienced filly in the race, with four races under her saddle. Her BRIS speed figures have improved each time, as has her winning margins in her last two races. The daughter of Hold Me Back had a pre-race breeze over the turf. Alonso Quinonez has piloted the youngster in every start.

BOUJIE GIRL (8-1)  was no match for Belafina in the Sorrento Stakes. The daughter of Flashback broke on top but was four to five wide the entire way while pressing the pace. She ran out of oats in the stretch, missing second place by a nose, and crossed the finish line 4 1/4 lengths behind Bellafina.  Boujie Girl galloped out in front of the tired Bellafina after the wire. Boujie Girl drew the rail, so she’ll get a better trip in the Debutante.

BELLAFINA (9-5) ran them off their feet in the 6F Sorrento Stakes (G2) in her last start, setting wicked early fractions of 21.82, 45.25 and 57.37. She slowed in the stretch, getting her final furlong in 13.24.  Her speed figure took a 19 point upward hike, and her post-race work was a full second slower than her pre-race breeze, a hint that she may regress. In her favor, the Simon Callaghan trainee recorded a 5F bullet move for the Debutante.  The daughter of Quality Road may be fastest out of the gate and has zipped faster early fractions than the rest, but she may not be able to sustain her speed against this field going an extra furlong.

Selections:

Del Mar is overwhelmingly speed-favoring, and there’s no shortage of speed in the race. All except Brill won their races on the lead.   

If Bojie Girl breaks as sharply as she did in the Sorrento, she may vie for the lead with the very quick Bellafina. Mother Mother and Watch Me Burn may stalk them, and Brill will be right there, too.  With only five fillies in contention, this is a jockey’s race.

BRILL (8-5)
 

MOTHER MOTHER (2-1)
 

Longshot: WATCH ME BURN (15-1)
 

Handigambling:

Part of being a successful handicapper is to know which races will return the best ROI for your money. With only five horses in the field, you could conceivably cover the field with a slew of exotic bets, but although you’d be certain of a payout, the return would likely be less than the amount bet.  My advice is save the dollars for a more lucrative betting opportunity and enjoy watching the race.