Handicapper's Corner: Alabama Stakes (G1)

Alabama Stakes Showcases Top Fillies

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

The Alabama Stakes (GI) at Saratoga is considered by some the very best race during the Saratoga meet. It has showcased some of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country, if not the world. A list of winners includes: Go For Wand, Sky Beauty, Silverbulletday, Royal Delta and Song Bird.

This year’s edition has some whose name my go down in history, especially if they prevail tomorrow. With wet weather predicted for Saturday, handicapping decisions will need to factor in the predicted thunderstorm as the race approaches. Another important factor is distance. None of the fillies have raced at the 10 furlong distance before.

Let’s look at the field of eight.

    1.   Piedi Bianchi (Overanalyze) has been running at the grade one level, but not winning. She has only won races at 5 furlongs. Rail position may help, but enough to win.

    2.   Eskimo Kisses (To Honor and Serve) finished fourth in the Coaching Club American Oaks (GI) against Midnight Bisou at 9 furlongs. She did win an 8.5 furlong race on a wet track. Weather may help her. Her sire, To Honor and Serve, placed second in the Belmont Stakes suggesting she may have the distance in her.

    3.   Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute) ran a good race last out, albeit not winning. Distance is a serious concern for this filly, since sire, Midnight Lute, never raced past a mile and only won at 7 furlongs. The Saratoga Stretch may be problem.

    4.   She’s a Julie (Elusive Quality) will be challenged by the distance. Her sire, Elusive Quality, never raced beyond a mile. Her one try at a wet track was a disaster. Although she seems to be maturing nicely, these two factors may be too difficult to overcome.

    5.   Auspicious Babe (Bodemeister) is really stepping up in company. This will be her first attempt at graded company. Her five-furlong bullet race suggests her trainer, Dallas Stewart, who has success with these types is looking long. Her sire placed in the Kentucky Derby, so maybe she will get the distance.

    6.   Figarella’s Queen (Medaglia d’Oro) comes from the breeding stock that makes one respect her ability. Her sire won the Travers Stakes over this Saratoga track. She his making her debut in grade one company, after a 2^nd place finish in a grade three race.

    7.   Coach Rocks (Oxbow) is a local favorite because of one of his owners from the area. Her race in the Black Eyed Susan over a sloppy track suggests the prediction for wet weather might benefit her. Her sire finished second in the Belmont Stakes at 12 furlongs might mean distance is in her blood. 

    8.   Talk Veuve to Me (Violence) looks like the fastest of them all and will be on the lead early. Yet, there are others who may contest that lead, requiring jockey Leparoux to be patient and reserve his horse’s energy for the stretch run which will likely be intense.

Finding the winner in this race will require multiple points of analysis. Since none have traversed the distance of the race, pedigree will be important. If the track is sloppy, as expected, those that like it wet will have an advantage. Finally, Saratoga has been showing a bias for speed and inside position over the last few days, so positioning on the track by the jockey will be critical.

Here is how I think the race will finish.

   1.   Eskimo Kisses (#2)

   2.   Midnight Bisou (#3)

   3.   Figarella’s Queen (#6)

   4.   Auspicious Babe (#5)

Handigamble:

$10 Exacta Box: 2,3,6 =$60

$1 Trifecta Box: 2,3,5 and 6 =  $24

$16 to win: #2 =10

And a six-dollar beverage to celebrate. Enjoy, but keep the day job.