Diverse Field in Whitney Stakes
By: The Turk
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| Diversify: Photo credit by Susie Raisher with appreciation |
The Turk loves the handicap division, even when it's a hot mess.
With Pavel pointing at the Pacific Classic on August 18th, one week before the Travers Stakes, it's not my inclination to lament who isn't here. My job as handicapper is to read the tea leaves before me for this race and worry about who will contend at the classic distance three weeks later.
Do you look ahead? I do, I can't help it, especially with my tickets in hand for Travers Day and Mrs. Turk and I planning our Breeders' Cup trip as well. I'm hoping three weeks from now will be drier than this weekend should be.
Will speed carry or will the track play fair and give closers a chance? I like to keep my eye on what the NYRA lists as "track trends" and I'm leaning towards speed favoring, especially if they get the rain they are expecting Friday and part of Saturday. I'm going to assume the track is a bit sloppy but speed carrying. I may adjust that thinking after watching some two turn runs tomorrow and early on the card. On 7/26 and 7/27 when the track was listed as sloppy and sealed speed was dominant.
Where is the early speed: Timeform US Early Pace figs in the Whitney are Diversify/6 @127; Dalmore/3@121; Backyard Heaven/2@117; and no one else is greater than 100.
Let's get after this!
When I handicap a track I expect to not play fairly, I focus strongly on what the pace and race shape should look like. I have a mental picture for this race forming: Dalmore and Diversify are in front on the first turn followed closely by Mind Your Biscuits, Backyard Heaven and Tapwrit and strung behind them are Good Samaritan, Discreet Lover and McCracken. By the top of the stretch, I'm imagining a pretty clean silk Joel Rosario up on Diversify with Dalmore dropping, Mind your Biscuits slowing slightly, inexperienced Backyard Heaven wanting the slopfest to end and Tapwrit and Good Samaritan moving forward.
I don't like being the public handicapper predicting chalk, but I think chalk wins convincingly here and I'll make my money singling Win and looking for value in Exacta and Trifecta. The modestly bred New Yorker Diversify was dominant in the Suburban last time out. 9 wins in 13 fast dirt starts and a >400 Tomlinson for Wet Tracks. A win over the main track in a state restricted romp in 2018.
The Suburban G2 : 1 1/4 Miles 7 July
Over a fast track, I think I'd be looking at Backyard Heaven to upset Diversify. His Stephen Foster Handicap is the sort of race you can draw a line through, not as bad as Twitterverse thought but not the results expected after a G2 Alysheba romp. Only his 6th start, boom or bust, I could easily see him in the far back of the pack or on the edges of the exotics.
The Stephen Foster Handicap G1; 1 1/8 miles 16 June
It's hard to be negative in any way over Mind Your Biscuits last race out in the Met Mile. The 5 YO is going two turns for just the first time and I tip my hat to Trainer Chad Summers for that. He clearly looms and I think the track should aid him. He has not been good at Saratoga at shorter distances hes more suited for, so is this just a dice toss? Possibly. I'll be covering him in Place and Show with some longer prices and won't be upset if he drops back.
The Met Mile G1: 9 June
Looking at prices that could surprise for Place or Show, I like Good Samaritan. Mott's runner will be coming fast at the end of this race and as long as he has an open path he could easily be flying at the end with lots of speed to run at.
New Orleans H. G2; 1 1/8 Miles 24 March
With the handicap out of the way, it's a bit early but lets start thinking about the bet.
A $2 Exacta with 6 (Diversify) OVER 1 and 7 (Tapwrit and Good Samaritan) for $4 bucks is my initial thought. It's not sexy, but these sort of low cost bets are what can really make your day and meet. If I'm looking at a Trifecta, a $2 bet of 6 OVER 1-4-7-2 (Tapwrit, Biscuits, Backyard and Good Samaritan) over 1-4-7-2-3 (Add Dalmore) for $32 bucks gets my early nod.
Have fun with it friends! Turk Out
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