West vs. East in Rebel Stakes Renewal
By: Stuart deVoe, ThorFan Handicapper
A salty group of eleven 3-year-olds, all with Derby dreams, will face the starter and look to grab the lion’s share of this $1 million purse. As handicappers, we must keep in mind that the springtime of a horse’s 3-year-old season is when the most physical and development occurs. Any one of these charges can make a dramatic improvement in mere weeks and a boy becomes a man just like that. We must decipher where each entrant is on that arch of maturation. Not an easy task.
On the human side of things, we find the usual suspects. Steve Asmussen has 3 entered (Powerful, Red Route One & Gun Pilot). Brad Cox has the two morning line favorites (Verifying & Giant Mischief). Baffert sort of has one but that horse (Reincarnate) is now transferred to Tim Yakteen – you know the story. Sprinkle in a little D. Wayne (Bourbon Bash) and McPeek (Frosted Departure), who always enters to see if they fit, and now we have a horse race!
Here's the field:
Verifying
(Geroux/Cox) 2-1 –
This Justify colt came back last month trouncing N1X allowance foes by over 5
lengths. Verifying beat 2 next out
winners, one of which he faces today (Gun Pilot). He was G1 placed over the slop in only his 2nd
career start and earned his way into the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile where a poor
start dashed his chances. Brad Cox gives
a leg up to his main jockey in Florent Geroux.
He looks like he means business with the race over the track and the
quality he has already displayed. I do
question the rail draw for him. He likes
to be forward in his races and there seems to be a fair amount of speed to his
outside. He may get a very dirty trip. At low odds, I am willing to fade him, but he
certainly is a WIN CONTENDER.
Powerful (Castillo/Asmussen) 20-1 – The first of Mr. Steve’s triumvirate seems aggressively spotted off a maiden win and a sprint stake win. Those wins sandwich a poor effort in the G1 Breeder’s Futurity at KEE. Clearly, the nation’s winningest trainer sees something in him. He will be on the engine and is bred to go long and like the slop. He will have to prove it to me for my backing. OUTSIDER
Red Route One (Torres/Asmussen) 10-1 – The second from Mr. Steve seems to rounding into good form as he ran 2nd to Arabian Knight, the current Derby favorite, in the sloppy Southwest here at OP last month. This Winchell homebred will get a pace into which he can close and if the pace is as hot as expected he is not without a chance. That said, he had a perfect set up in his last and was never catching the winner. BOARD CONTENDER
Gun Pilot (Santana/Asmussen) 8-1 – The last of the Mr. Steve brigade in another one on the improve. Verifying dusted him in his two-turn debut but he came back 3 weeks later and ran a much-improved race. This Gun Runner colt is an early foal (February) and I like how he “learned something” in his last start. Instead of gunning to the lead as he did in his first 2 starts, he listened to his jockey, rated and then ran down his foes in a very professional manner. He will have to improve again to win. BOARD CONTENDER
Giant Mischief (Ortiz Jr./Cox) 5-2 – Brad Cox goes for the nation’s leading rider for one of the morning line favorites. He has 2 wins and a 2nd in three starts but none against graded company. His speed figures say he fits and this looks like a good starting point for him this year. Reading a bit between the lines, perhaps the 1 1/8 Risen Star was too far for him to start off. He has trained this winter at Fair Grounds where that event was held last week but ships in here. I’m also not sure what to make of the fact that Florent gets off this horse to ride Verifying. If he didn’t get Irad or another big name jock, then it would be a big red flag. WIN CONTENDER
Reincarnate (Velazquez/Yakteen) 7-2 – This former Baffert runner looks like he could be any kind. In his last, he looked dead to rights in deep stretch after getting hounded on the lead the entire way. However, he dug in and held off Newgate who came back to win a stake in his next start. I love how he has some battle scars. On the downside, he looks best on the lead and will have plenty of company today. I don’t think he needs the lead but that is his game. Johnny V. went out to California to get good horses and he may have found one here. They will have to pass him in the stretch to win. WIN CONTENDER
Confidence Game (Graham/Desormeaux) 15-1 – Another Fair Grounds shipper shows up in Hot Springs. Confidence Game exits the G3 Lacomte where he pressed the pace and got a bit late. He is also another how likes to be forward. I think he will find this pace a bit taxing. TOSS
Talladega (Prat/Brisset) 30-1 – A recent MSW winner here at Oaklawn will find the waters a bit deeper today. Looks like he has some quality, and you will get paid if you like him. I don’t. TOSS
Event Detail (Corrales/Lobo) 30-1 – Bossed Turfway MSW company in his 3rd start last month. I see the owners of a pricy City of Light colt ($600k) taking a shot at getting some return on their investment. I get it if I owned him. I don’t and don’t plan to for this 1 1/16th mile journey. TOSS
Bourbon Bash (Michel/Lukas) 20-1 – Has danced 8 times so far with only a maiden win to his credit. D. Wayne is clearly taking a shot here. Again, I get it but… TOSS
Frosted Departure (Arrieta/McPeek) 20-1 – Kenny sends out the most experienced runner of the group with 10 starts. Breaking from the outside post with more speed to his inside this Frosted colt will have to learn to rate, save ground and pass rivals late. He’s never done that going a route of ground in the past. He may be able to do some of those things but I can’t back him to do all of them. OUTSIDER
SUMMARY:
I find that when there are a handful of win contenders a race often comes down to trip. Given the expected off track, I like to look for horses that will stay clean and clear. That means out of the mud, kickback and traffic. It’s just less to overcome.
That said, Reincarnate is my man! Although Tim Yakteen is listed as the trainer, this is a Baffert runner – at least in my mind for today. That means he has been trained to run fast and hard for the entire race. At the 7-2 m/l I find that a juicy price and I think in this deep field he will be just about that.
Reincarnate can run them off their feet, just like Baffert’s Arabian Knight did in last month’s Southwest Stakes. I feel that horses like Powerful, Bourbon Bash, Frosted Departure, Talladega and Confidence Game will all chase and fade and could create some issues for the backers.
Horses like Verifying, Giant Mischief and Gun Pilot will have to work out a trip in the mud to make some noise. Gun Pilot offers the most value. That said, most of my play will be in the win pool as I feel that has the most amount of certainty.
THE BET: Based on $100
$85 win Reincarnate
$15 exacta Reincarnate – Gun Pilot
Good Luck!!
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