Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Santa Anita Handicap (G1)

 Searching for value in the Santa Anita Handicap

By: The Turk

 

Defunded: Benoit 

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, and thank you to the good people at The Thorofan for having me today.  My blog primarily focuses on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.  I've handicapped dirt races for the better part of 35 years, so I'm capable, it's just not my blog's primary focus.  I hope you give me a read and good luck if you are playing.

Classic Distance racing always a bit of a wildcard for veteran older horses: 11 starts for this field at that distance, 2 wins and 4 Place/Shows.  Tomlinson's, always a bit murky, have Hopper 372 and next closest 50 points lower.  That's a good spread for comparing Tomlinson's but is Hopper the pick?.  Focus on the key metrics every race when building your base handicap: Class, Current Form, Early and Late Speed, Distances, Track Record, Trainer/Rider stats, In the Money and Wins over surface.  If you hit the key variables in the base handicap, it puts you in a good position to focus on the nuance during bet construction: pace, trainer intentions, post positions, tote board odds.  

Ultimately you will grade yourself on a few metrics:  Did I make a return on my betting capital? Was my handicap any good?  Does my analysis of the Past Performances justify continued betting on that surface, that age range, that track? Did I have fun?  I'm no gambling whale.  I'm just a nobody who likes horses, like's to write about race handicapping, and talks about himself in the third person.  All that said, I do this because it brings me joy and I have fun.  I think in modern times there are far easier ways to make money in sports betting, so if you are reading this, I hope you agree with me.

Let's get after it!

The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles for 4 YO and UP

I don't want to spend too much time on video as I don't think there are many races relevant for current form with this field.

The San  Pasqual Grade 2:  1 1/8 Fast Dirt SA 28 January 2023

Pegasus World Cup G1:  1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt GP; 28 January 2023

 

 The San Antonio Grade 2:  1 1/16 Miles over Fast Dirt SA:  26 December 2022

So what do we make of it? I think you could legitimately make a case for the top 7 in my base handicap to win.  

Defunded is a Grade 1 horse and gives nothing regarding class.  Good mix of early tactical and late speed.  Training well for Baffert after trip to GP in late January.  J Hernandez is up and  26% winner this meet and him and Baffert at SA over rolling year are 35% winners.   5 of 6 in the money at Santa Anita, 10 of 14 in the money over fast dirt, 9 of 14 lifetime exacta finish, one classic distance start, last year's Gold Cup G1 at SA, finishing Place to There Goes Harvard.  

Hollywood (Ha!) Gold Cup G1: 1 1/14 Miles Fast Dirt SA: 30  May 2022

A five horse field with lousy pace scenario is no reason to change thinking.  Different race, different field, different point in horse form.

Proxy is a fringe Grade 1 contender, winning the Grade 1 Clark last year.  Matches or comes close to Defunded's class level.  Solid early speed but excellent late turn of foot.  First SA start.  Only second attempt at Distance for this millionaire.    Pace, and how we feel about the pace scenario, will play a key role, but I do like his far outside start and his ability to be sitting midpack for critical part of race.  

Newgrange and Stilleto Boy form my next grouping.  Newgrange gets Dettori up (21% winner 85 starts) this meet and enters off last race win in the San Pasqual G2.  Fast Early, decent late speed. Violence colt is solid Grade 2 and gives up one rating in class to the best here.  4 YO and already $750K earnings.  5 wins in 8 starts, 3 wins in 3 starts at SA , 7 of 8 in the money over fast dirt.  Pay attention to tote board. 

Stilleto Boy is the proverbial "hanging around the hoop" colt, putting up $1.4 MM in earnings with 3 wins but 15 of 20 in the money.  Owner/Trainer Moger's not afraid to take this Shackleford colt go head to head with anyone.  Dangerous.  Fast early/solid late speed.  Kent Desormeaux up as Mike Smith jumps to Hopper.  1 win in 6 SA Starts but 5 of 6 in the money.

There Goes Harvard, a 5 YO Mike McCarthy conditioned horse had a turf to G1 dirt win  last year and tries again after going in a 1 mile Turf run at SA in early February.  Sharp work on 18 February.  2 Classic Distance starts, 2 exacta finishes.  6 starts at SA, 6 in the money finishes.  Solid, not spectacular. 

Warrant gives up two class ranks and is a solid G3 runner.  Cox and Prat are 39% winners rolling year outside of SA.  Prat's meet has been forgettable at 11%.  Place by a head in last year's race edition, a lifetime best Beyer for what that's worth.  9 of 13 lifetime starts in exacta.  

And finally Hopper, a 4 YO in 5th start, is very very fast early but seems to be in deep waters here.  Started on rail in San Pasqual and yielded late presumably after shortest run.    A huge wildcard, does he rabbit or does Smith, up for first time on him, wait?  

6 YO Heywoods Beach will be back early and can close fast late.  Really comes down to how this one plays out.  

I don't think this will be a race that the best horses can't manage the pace. Defunded and Proxy can both manage the speed tactics, as well as Newgrange and Stilleto Boy.  I do think Baffert will send Hopper early for Defunded to target later.  Some other late speed to consider is the 5 YO Curlin trained by Joe Sharp, Scarlet Fusion.  

I'll be paying attention to the tote board and looking for value in my exacta.  I may look at Defunded and/or Proxy OVER Value: There Goes Harvard, Warrant, Haywoods Beach, Scarlet Fusion, possibly Proxy.

If I single Defunded it's a $2 bet for $10 and if I hedge Proxy in both spots its a $18 bet.  I'll be clear and place the $10 bet. 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!