Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Florida Derby (G1)

Looking for value in Florida Derby

 By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan 

This is the highlight of the Gulfstream winter meeting. The weather will be spectacular. 

We have twelve runners going one and an eight for the money and 200 points are up for grabs for the Kentucky Derby five weeks from now.

Forte, Forte, Forte. Did I mention #11 Forte? Deserved Florida Derby favorite and the betting favorite to win the Kentucky Derby at this juncture. The Florida Derby has produced so many Kentucky Derby winners it hard to count. Hard to doubt that Forte will not win here as he did in the Fountain of Youth Stake a month ago.

One of his prime challengers, Rocket Can, is out of town for the run in Arkansas.

From a strictly handicapping standpoint there is only one winner, Forte, unless something silly happens. He is drawn to the outside which is not ideal but has a jockey that is keenly aware of all that goes on in these situations. And there is no value from a betting standpoint for a win bet.

Personally, I don't bet a favorite unless there is great value underneath with value odds to go with such a short priced favorite. So I'm looking for contenders who are proven at a distance, have the breeding to go and stay, close well against a fairly fast pace and have odds that justify the wager. Let's look at a few….

#9 Cyclone Mischief is ranked third on the power scale for this race but weakened in the stretch going shorter in the FOY.

There are two Good Magic colts in the race and Good Magic has had great success this season.

 #4 Mage was all the rage after a lightning quick win first time out and finished a good fourth against Forte in the FOY. He gets Luis Saez who could be very strong on the front as seen with Maximum Security.

#12 Dubyuhnell has gone the distance in the slop and won the Remsen last December. His return was not so good but, is consistent with what happens with most young horses after a big win into a layoff. I expect a move forward given the connections.

#8 Mr. Ripple is another that's been tested going the distance and on this track. Sent to us by Dialed In, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Zayas he has my nod as an ITM player.

#2 West Coast Cowboy showed a lot of guts in the Holy Bull at 58-1 which paid a great price in the exotics. Sony Leon is up and no doubt has shown his ability with a horse that might have the mind to get open and clear some competition.

Two interesting colts from two great dads, Arrogate's #1 Jungfrau has gone this distance twice. Don't this Juddmonte and Bill Mott would be sending him out for practice. And California Chrome’s #5 Mr. Peek. Yeah that's crazy, right. Okay, I like the idea of having a horse in there who is ridden by a guy who wins 36% on routes and is ITM 56% of the time. Picking two who are Maidens. What? Okay done quibbling about my choices.

Handigambling – A friend of mine asked me to make a Superfecta for this one and here it is:

$0.10 Superfecta below = $12 fun bet and you can bet it in multiples. It will pay best if the 2 or 8 come in second.

11 with 2, 4, 8, 12, with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12

Other bet options

$1 Exacta   -  2, 4, 8, 11, 12 w 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12  =  $35 sensible bet if you believe in silly things happen to nice horses.

$10 Exacta  -  11 with 4, 9, 12  =  $30 logical given the odds

$5 Exacta  -  11 with 1, 2, 5, 8  =  $20 hoping for longshot heaven

$1 Trifecta  -  11 w 2, 4, 8, 12 w 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12  =  $24 solid bet with a good payout of longshots come 2^nd

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Bonus Round - Arkansas Derby – Win Contenders are 6 and 7….bet as you wallet will allow

$1 Trifecta  -  6, 7, with 4, 5, 6, 7, with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11  = $30

$2 Exacta  -  4, 5, 6, 7, with 4, 5, 6, 7, 11  =  $32