Wading Through the Blue Grass Stakes Field
By Nick Costa, Trackside with Trakman
A major steppingstone for the $3 million G1 Kentucky Derby, to be run May 6 at Churchill Downs, the Blue Grass Stakes offers 200 points toward qualification to this year's Derby on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale to the first-through fifth-place finishers.
Tampa Bay Derby winner, Tapit Trice, trained by Todd Pletcher has been installed as the 5-2 morning-line choice in a field of eleven 3-year-olds.
As for Tapit Trice and Gotham Stakes winner, Raise Cain, who is also in the Blue Grass field, both accumulated 50 points for their respective prep victories and have virtually locked up a spot in Louisville.
The Blue Grass will go as the ninth race on Saturday's 11-race program with a 5:15 p.m. ET post time.
With this event being held on just the second day of the spring Keeneland meet, we do not know how the track is playing in relation to running styles, so, I handicapped on the assumption of a neutral track.
On paper, this Grade 1 event doesn’t appear very strong, Tapit Trice and Blazing Sevens seem to be the most talented and I expect one of the two to win this race.
I’ve always held firm in my belief that G1 races are won by Grade 1 horses, and Blazing Sevens is such a horse, having taken the Champagne Stakes last fall. He was fourth behind Forte in the G1 B.C. Juvenile, beating more than half the field, after being hampered at the start, and was G1 stakes placed in the Hopeful at Saratoga last summer. In his only start this year, he got bumped around pretty good heading into the first turn in the G2 Fountain of Youth and never got untracked, languishing near the back of the pack for the entire race.
I’m willing to give him a mulligan for that no-show effort. This appears to be a better spot, and trainer Chad Brown does well with horses second off the layoff. In addition, Blazing Sevens gets first time blinkers (another category Brown has had great success with) and the riding services of Irad Ortiz. For me, it’s all systems go.
Tapit Trice had no early interest in the Tampa Bay Derby, but certainly was interested late. He only ran hard the last quarter-mile, but what a run it was, turning on the after burners to motor to a two-length win. He’s been green early in a couple of his races, so he’ll need an alert beginning breaking from the rail to stay intact with the field. He’s gunning for four wins in a row, but in order to get it done, he must improve and show more professionalism too. If he does, look for him in the winner’s circle.
Verifying who was expected to be the pacesetter in the Rebel, was outrun for the lead and tracked along the inside rail into the far turn, where he was then surrounded by rivals and had no place to really run until he finally found clearance late.
There is other speed to his outside in Major Blue, so it’s imperative this Brad Cox horse break cleanly from post three. If he can secure the lead, he could take this group a long way, especially if the track is kind to front runners,
Sun Thunder was hindered by the slow-paced Louisiana Derby where he had only two horses beaten at the three-quarter mark but was able to improve his position from far back in the field to finish fifth. The pace here should hopefully be more beneficial to his closing style. He has been very competitive in his outings this year and deserves some consideration to be on the board.
WAGER
$100 Mythical Dollars
$10 Win – Blazing Sevens
$10 Exacta Box – Blazing Sevens and Tapit Trice (Cost $20)
$10 Exactas – Blazing Sevens and Tapit Trice over Verifying (Cost $20)
$5 Trifecta Box – Blazing Sevens-Tapit Trice- Verifying (Cost $30)
$5 Trifecta Wheel – Blazing Sevens and Tapit Trice in the first two positions adding Verifying and Sun Thunder to the third slot (Cost $20)
Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.
No comments:
Post a Comment