Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Providencia Stakes (G2)

 Short Providencia Stakes field offers value

By: Robert Marks, @theyreinthegate

Saturday at 5:00 pm Eastern time is the $100,000 Grade 3 Stakes for 3-year-olds fillies at Beautiful Santa Anita Park in California. With next week being Kentucky Derby week, this is a nice race to try to pad your betting account for Derby bets next week. 

 

 

 Here is a look at your field:

 

We will focus on these 3 horses out of the 6-horse field:

 

The post time favorite is Ancient Peace, an Ontario Bred making her Stakes Debut. She is at a morning line price of 8-5. She won at Santa Anita, breaking her maiden last year going a mile on the turf, and has a dirt win at Santa Anita in a one-mile allowance race on April 8^th.

Trainer John Sadler switches her back to the turf and has her go an extra 1/8 of the mile, which should be no problem as she is a War Front sire and has AP Indy on the Dam side.

5-2 morning line Paris Secret, trained by Phil D’Amato, had a troubled trip last time out in her US Debut going a mile on the Santa Anita turf finishing 4^th.  She has only run twice and looked very sharp in her debut in Ireland easily breaking her maiden. Kazushi Kimura gets the mount. Look for Kimura to run her wide, not looking for any traffic trouble this time around.

We always like to look for value and in short fields you must look at a longshot to do that. We like 12-1 longshot Una Palabra who sports two wins out of five starts and two runner-up efforts at Turf Paradise.

Her breeding, by multiple dirt stakes winner McCraken, suggests she would do well over dirt and she’s run twice on the dirt, a victory 3 races back and then a disappointing 8^th last time out in the Sunland Park Oaks.

I like the switch back to the turf here and Una Palabra is probably the most seasoned horse in the field.  She seems content to make a stalking trip and I believe she will handle the distance. Victor Espinosa, no stranger to Santa Anita, will be on board.

We look for Una Palabra to sit chilly mid pack and pass the Ancient Peace and Paris Secret late to garner victory.

 

Here is a look at who we will be betting:

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Una Palabra

$2 Trifecta Box: Una Palabra, Ancient Peace, Paris Secret (total bet $48)

$2 place: Una Palabra