Superstars in the Oaklawn Handicap
By: Anthony Falbo, The Turk
Rated R Superstar: Thank You Dustin Orona |
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, I am the Turk, a 37 year horse handicapper who has been blogging since 2007.
My handicapping these days is primarily for races run over a route of grass, but an occasional foray onto dirt is always enjoyable. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me this opportunity today.
My handicapping methods are a derivative of styles learned from reading handicapping authors like Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz, and when I was a younger, The Happy Handicapper, Robert Summers.
Yes, I refer to myself in the third person as The Turk. Originally I did this to protect my identity because I wasn't sure if my employer would frown upon an employee with a certain amount of fiduciary responsibilities writing about gambling.
Oh how the times have changed. For anyone who joined the work force in the 1980's, just think back to what was acceptable behavior and personal appearance back then compared to now. I'm not saying it was better or worse, I'm just saying it's very different.
In today's climate, writing about horse racing and gambling will most likely cause you to be ostracized for being a bit weird, but in the spectrum of workplace weird, on the harmless side of the scale.
What does any of this have to do with horse racing? I started to think about older horses when I looked at Rated R Superstar, the 1 horse in the Oaklawn Handicap, the $1.0 MM Grade 2 race at Oaklawn Park I am focused on today. This will be the 10 year old gelded son of Kodiak Kowboy ($5,000 fee) 69th race.
When I started handicapping, and horses made more starts, it wasn't uncommon to see big start counts, but when was the last time in a Grade 2 you saw a 10 YO with that many starts? It's not often. A millionaire winner across the Oaklawn surface and approaching $2.0 MM in career earnings, I have a special place in my heart of the hard knocking veterans. His performance for his career in blacktype is just steady and consistent. Follow this link to read more about Rated R Superstar's 10th season debut from earlier this year.
Do you put time into studying the science and data behind racing?
In a 29 January 2011 published paper entitled, The Effect of Age on Thoroughbred Race Performance, authors Marshall and Marksteiner generated data on the impact to Beyer Speed Figs over time. Horses were grouped into 25 categories based on age and the table above shows the average difference between the speed figure a horse earned in a particular race and that horse’s career mean speed figure.
In Rated R Superstar's case, 55 horses made 565 total starts when they were greater than 9 years old. Speed figures for the horses running in these 565 races average 7.1 points or 0.5 standard deviations below their career mean speed figure (Diff and St Diff). This differential translates into 2.9 lengths for a 6 furlong race. It may seem obvious, but I find the curve up and the curve away to/from peak performance by age to be the interesting thing here and it fits my fact pattern for analyzing horses of different age competing against each other. Interesting yes, handicapping actionable data? I focus on recency, typically less than a year and less than past six starts, to peg current form and don't try to view the career starts and performance like this, but still, fascinating.
Ok, I clearly did not understand the assignment! Lets get after it.
It's a bit early to figure out what the track conditions will be. Weather is calling for some rain on Friday and slightly dryer Saturday.
The Essex Handicap G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 18 March 2023 at Oaklawn Park
The Gulfstream Park Mile G2: 1 Mile on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023
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