Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Beholder Mile (G1)

 Behold the Dawn

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper

Beholder, the namesake for this classic race, was just inducted into the Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Fame in 2022 at age 12—her first year of eligibility. 

The induction was understandable simply by looking over her career. One of her 18 wins came in the Pacific Classic where she beat the boys. 

 

And of course we all remember that 2016 Breeders’ Cup Distaff where she defeated champion filly Songbird by a nose. There remains no doubt why this week’s mile race is named in her honor.

The field of eight running in this prestigious mile race run over the dirt course at Santa Anita. Weather forecasts call for a good amount of rain with the likelihood that the track will be off. Here is the field:

       1.      Kirstenbosch (Midnight Lute) is progressing over the last five races. Won last over an off Santa Anita surface with a Tomlinson wet rating of 384. Looks to sit off the place, but may not be fast enough to finish with the rest.

      2.      Pauline’s Pearl (Tapit) is shortening up to a mile for the first time. Closed to win the last on a muddy track with a legitimate speed figure, however not her best. Owns a bullet workout. Gets new jockey, Johnny Velazquez. Will be tough to beat.

      3.      Awake At Midnyte (Nyquist) finished second in the LaBrea Stakes (GI). Did less well in next race which raises questions of actual form and readiness for this level. No experience over a muddy track. Maybe in exotics.

      4.      Midnight Memories (Mastery) one of three runners trained by Bob Baffert. Has a bullet workout and a grade three mile win at Del Mar. Will likely want to control the early pace and will avoid mud kick-back. Has four front-end wins out of six tries. Could be close at the wire.

      5.      A Mo Reay (Uncle Mo) showed a liking for an off track with a win in a non-graded stakes races at the Fair Grounds with a 389 Tomlinson wet rating. Most experienced miler. Thorograph numbers suggest ready to run, maybe not with these. She was a $400,000 purchase at the November 2022 sale.

      6.      Ganadora (Quality Road) is a daughter of Quality Road that sold as a yearling for $1 million. Likely will join other Baffert-trained for the lead. Gets new jockey. She tries grade one level for the second time finishing in 5^th off by 6 lengths in the LaBrea Stakes (GI).

      7.      Desert Dawn (Cupid) finished an impressive 3^rd on wet-fast track in the 2022 Kentucky Oaks (GI) behind Secret Oath and Nest. Holds a Tomlinson wet rating of 407 for that effort. Working nicely with a bullet last week at Santa Anita. Could surprise.

      8.      Fun to Dream (Arrogate) homebred in partnership with Bob Baffert. With Baffert’s other two runners setting the pace, she will be coming down the stretch. She boast’s a 6-for7 win record of which she is 4-for-4 over the Santa Anita track. Speed figures put her in the mix. Possible.

The strength of the race may be with the closers. The condition of the track may change that for deep closers. Strategically placed horses should do better. The two pace setters are fast and will heat-up the pace. The outside posts may avoid the heavy, wet kick-back and finish well. Here is how I see the race finishing:

       7.      Desert Dawn (4-1)

        8.      Fun to Dream (5-2)

        2.      Pauline’s Pearl (7-2)

        6.      Ganadora (15-1)

Handigamble:

$30 to win on #7                  = $30

$40 to place on #7               = $40

$5 Exacta Box (#2, #7, #8)  = $30