Fair Grounds Stakes Winners Clash in Louisiana Derby
By Rowan Ward, Blinkers-off
The race
covers 1 3/16 miles, the longest of any Kentucky Derby points race in the
United States, and the rewards are big: a $1 million purse, and 100-40-30-20-10
Road to the Kentucky Derby points for the top five finishers. This means a
guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby for the winner, a likely slot for the
second-place finisher, and a nice push up the Kentucky Derby standings even for
the next few across the wire.
The Louisiana
Derby is the last of four points races during the Fair Grounds meet. The Gun
Runner, the newest race in the series, began it in December. It was followed by
the two traditional local lead-ins for the race, the Lecomte (G3) in January
and the Risen Star (G2) in February.
Though Risen
Star winner Angel of Empire does not return for the Louisiana Derby, this race
features a clash between Gun Runner winner Jace’s Road and Lecomte winner
Instant Coffee, both of whom go out for the barn of Brad Cox.
Only two
Louisiana Derby winners have won the Kentucky Derby: Louisiana legend Black
Gold in 1924, and Lil E. Tee in 1992. However, more recently, Louisiana Derby
fourth-place finisher Country House (2019) took the roses with him, and
Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter (2022) ran second in both the Kentucky Derby
and the Preakness as the favorite, and went on to win the Travers (G1) and
champion 3-year-old honors.
Brad Cox
holds a lot of the cards in this year’s edition of the Louisiana Derby. He
trains the favorite Instant Coffee, who would not be a surprise. He has won three of his four starts to date,
including the Lecomte over the Fair Grounds track. Though the jury is still out
on how long the Bolt d’Oro progeny want to go, he is out of an Uncle Mo mare,
which is a positive stamina influence. He has been able to close well and win
even if the pace was not terribly fast in front of him, and Luis Saez returns
to the irons for the fourth race in a row.e
However,
Instant Coffee has a tough near-inside post position in a large field, meaning
he could run into some trip trouble. However, the pace does not look like it is
going to unfold to be particularly fast, meaning he is going to have to be at
the top of his game in addition to getting a clean trip. And, the most likely
candidate to take the lead is a good foe: his stablemate Jace’s Road.
Though Jace’s
Road disappointed last out in the Southwest, that was over a sloppy track. Both
of his off-track races have been flat, but his three starts over fast footing
have been strong. That includes a win over the local course: he won the Gun
Runner two starts back, setting a pressured pace and drawing off. The outside
post, in most cases, can be a little tricky, but with no one else in the field
dedicated to the lead, Florent Geroux should be able to get him to the front
and work a trip. And, if someone else
decides to step on the gas? He won his
debut and finished third in the Iroquois from near but not right on the
pace, meaning he has that tactical ability in his pocket.
Kingsbarns cedes experience to his foes but has
shown strong talent in his two starts to date.
He sat close to the pace and took over in his one-mile debut at
Gulfstream, then romped from a tracking spot in an allowance at Tampa Bay
Downs. The Tampa allowance proved that he looked as good going two turns as he
looked going one, and also that he could take good form out of Gulfstream Park
to another track. Todd Pletcher has a good history of taking talented but
lightly-raced horses into final Derby preps and putting them in the Run for the
Roses, and Kingsbarns could be another one of those types.
The one who is relatively short on the morning line and worth standing against is Sun Thunder. He will not get the torrid pace that he closed into for the Risen Star. Furthermore, the fact that he was outfinished in the Risen Star combined with the fact that he is by Into Mischief from a female family where so much of the class comes at one turn means that he may not want the extra distance of the Louisiana Derby.
Selections:
#11 Jace’s Road (12/1)
#6 Kingsbarns (6/1)
#2 Instant Coffee (2/1)
Longshot: #7 Cagliostro (12/1) has woken up as a three-year-old going two turns. The son of Upstart comes into stakes company for the first time, and missed by a neck last out in an allowance over the course. Though he will face Dennington, the horse who beat him, again, there is reason Cagliostro can get the better trip. Not only did Cagliostro draw better, but he also stands to get the jump on that foe this time. In a race without a lot of speed entered, that helps a lot. Add to that the fact that his trainer Cherie DeVaux tends to shine at a price third off the lay, he has the tools to make his stakes debut a very good one.
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