Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Holy Bull Stakes (G3)

 Will Speed Rule the Holy Bull Stakes?

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper 

The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) is the first in a series of prep races at Gulfstream leading to the Florida Derby and the 2023 Kentucky Derby. There are points involved and competition will be quite keen.

There are some speed balls entered and as we know from past races at Gulfstream it is a speed favoring track. The one factor that might play a card this time is the weather. Although it's been super here for the week, a frontal passage Friday might bless us with some rain. Which may play a factor in the outcome.

Looking back at some races, two stuck out. 2020, Tiz The Law who jumped to the front, got passed, shuffled back and re- rallied to take the race. Was he really a front runner? Maybe, but he was able to track wisely in traffic and catch them on the later part of the turn.

2019, was all about the speed duel  between the Ortiz brothers and they out did themselves. Harvey Wallbanger shot to the rail and slipped through with a thunderous roar to take the money at 25-1. 

There is no question in this race we have speed on top of speed. Which presents a question. Do ya play for the speed of the speed, a tracking sort or the one who can track a pace and close?

 

I like the track and close idea. Not a horse that comes from way off the pace but sets up mid to early and can make a move to the lead in a situation where the wire is early for the mile and a sixteenth. Only two horses have proven at the distance. 

#4 Cyclone Mischief (2-1) – Romans/Gaffalione and #8 Rocket Can (7-2) – Mott/Alvarado. Both have gone the distance twice and won once, both are from their great dad, Into Mischief, both rate close to the par speed but only Rocket Can has run in the slop at 96 and closed at 108. I think Rocket Can is more tactical could side in the cat bird seat and make the right move at the right time.

There is no doubt that #6 Legacy Isle (7-2) – Crichton/Saez is the early speed of the speed with Cyclone Mischief right behind and Rocket Can can choose to track.

There is a probability #5 Mr Bob might try to press the pace with the leaders. Both the #1 and 2 trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr. and riden by Irad Ortiz and Edgard Zayas might be involved late. #1 was third in the Mucho Macho Man against Cyclone Mischief. 

The #3 Shadow Dragon (15-1) – Mott/Ortiz, JL – won his maiden as is consistent with animals coming from Army Mule and Mott must have seen something that needed adjustment since he hasn't been seen for three months to enter here. Caution!!!: Mott brings horses off a long rest with exceptional results…e.g. Art Collector, and I expect we'll see something from this lad.

As I said earlier, I like a horse that can be tactical, with speed who can close. The weather being a factor I put Rocket Can on top today.

Handigambling

$2  Trifecta  -  8 with 1, 4, 3 with All    = $36

$2 Exacta Box – 1, 3, 4, 8                       = $24

$7 Win 3, $14 Show 3                             = $21

Good luck to everyone…..See you at the Florida Derby