Horse-by-Horse review and betting the Pegasus International
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
ThoroFan heads south to the Sunshine state on Saturday, January 28, where the $3 million G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational returns to Gulfstream Park.
Now in its seventh year, the Pegasus World Cup, a 1 1/8-mile event for older horses, headlines a stellar 13-race program that will also feature the $1 million 1 1/8-mile G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational and the $500,000 1 1/16-mile G3 Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf, as well as four other graded stakes. First-race post time is set for 10:50 a.m.
The Pegasus World Cup is one of the richest and most prestigious races of the year in North America, and it always attracts an outstanding field. The 2023 edition will be no different with a full field of twelve exciting contenders ready to take down the Grade 1 title.
Post time for the Pegasus World Cup Invitational race is slated for 5:40 p.m. NBC will be on site to nationally televise the World Cup festivities from 4:30 p.m. to 6 p.m. Let’s look at the horses from the rail out.
PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML
1 - Proxy – Joel Rosario/Michael Stidham – 9-2 - Five-year-old earned his first stakes victory and first G1 score when delivering a commanding win in the Clark Stakes to close out his 2022 campaign. Prior to that breakout performance, he was on the fringes with close finishes against G2/G3 stakes company. His win in the aforementioned Clark at the 1 1/8-mile distance certainly strengthens his case and makes him a real win threat here. Look for him to be coming on late through the stretch.
2 - Simplification – Paco Lopez/Antonio Sano – 15-1 - Newly turned 4-year-old exits a third-place finish in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes on New Year’s Eve over this surface. His best performances, including his latest, have all come at Gulfstream where he has registered all three career wins.
Can be considered a ‘horse for course’ type and should be respected off those accolades on this track.
3 - Riden With Biden – Julian Leparoux/Robert Reid – 20-1 – Ships down from Parx off a mini two-race win streak and was a winner of 3 of his last 4 there, including the G3 Greenwood Cup Stakes, but this is a major step up in class and his speed figures pale in comparison against his rivals. Looks to be part of a lively pace before the anchor drops.
4 - White Abarrio – Tyler Gafflione/Saffie Joseph – 10-1 - Grey colt has been blanked in five races since his last win on this track in the Florida Derby last April. That G1 win came at the same distance as the Pegasus World Cup. Finished third last out in the G1 Cigar Mile in New York, and is another ‘horse for course’, with a perfect record of four wins from four starts on the Gulfstream dirt and could thrive on his return to South Florida.
5 - Defunded – Irad Ortiz/Bob Baffert – 6-1 - He became a G1 winner two races back when winning the Awesome Again, before putting in a strong performance in his last outing to clinch the Native Diver. Both wins came at the 1 1/8-mile distance. Trainer Baffert holds the record for the most wins in this event, having saddled the winners in Arrogate (2017) and Mucho Gusto (2020). He’s the expected pacesetter, or at least, will be in the early mix and his class could keep him around for a piece of the pie.
6 - Art Collector – Junior Alvarado/Bill Mott – 10-1 - Six-year-old has won 10 of 20 career starts, garnering well over $2 million in earnings. As an older runner, he won the 2021 edition of the G1 Woodward Stakes and the 2021 and 2022 running’s of the G2 Charles Town Classic Stakes. He has a lot of wins but has also disappointed just as often. Another one with early foot who must go up against others speed types and may not keep up late.
7 – Skippylongstocking – Jose Ortiz/Saffie Joseph – 5-1 – This colt could be on the verge of a big 4-year-old campaign after closing out his 3-year-old season with arguably his career-best race with a stylish victory over the Gulfstream Park dirt surface in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday, the local prep for the Pegasus. He showed considerable promise throughout the 2023 season, winning the G3 West Virginia Derby and placing third in the G1 Belmont Stakes. He’s got momentum and must be considered a legitimate win candidate in this spot.
8 - Get Her Number – Luis Saez/Peter Miller – 15-1 – Was beaten a narrow head in the G1 Cigar Mile to close out his 4-year-old season. His three wins in 2023 have all come sprinting against optional allowance company. Last summer he was second in the G1 Bing Crosby and a non-factor in his subsequent run in the G2 Pat O’Brien, both at Del Mar. He’s stepping up to try nine-furlongs against stiff competition and needs a miracle.
9 - Last Samurai -Lanfranco Dettori/D. Wayne Lukas – 20-1 – Ships in for the Coach. Five-year-old was a convincing four length winner of the G2 Oaklawn Handicap back in April but was outmatched in a subsequent trio of G2 races. Two back he was a well beaten fourth in the G1 Clark, and then just failed to win a minor stakes at Oaklawn. Severely outclassed but will probably get some support due to the Lukas factor and the presence of Dettori.
10 - Cyberknife – Florent Geroux/Brad Cox – 5-2 - The likely post time favorite will be making his final career start and will try to emulate his sire who won this race in 2018 before heading off to the breeding shed. This colt was one of the leading 3-year-olds last year, winning a pair of G1’s (Arkansas Derby and Haskell Stakes). He concluded his sophomore season in November with a solid runner-up finish in the G1 B.C. Dirt Mile. The one to beat.
11 - Stilleto Boy – Mike Smith/Ed Moger – 30-1 – West Coast invader returns this year after filling out the trifecta spot in last year’s Pegasus behind the two favorites. Comes in off a runner-up showing in the G2 San Antonio at Santa Anita where he put in his best showing last year winning the G2 Californian, going wire-to-wire. Might prove difficult to replicate that win on the front end here with other fleet-footed runners to his inside.
12 - O’Connor – Javier Castellano/Saffie Joseph – 10-1 - Six-year-old Chilean-bred runner won half of his 18 starts in Chile, including a pair of Group 3’s and a Group 1 and then in his U.S. debut last October, he turned in a sparkling six-length at Gulfstream Park. Most recently, he finished fourth as the favorite in Harlan’s Holiday, but that performance may have been affected by one of his glue-on shoes separating during the race. Longshot should give a better showing here, but it won’t be enough to get it done from out here.
Also Eligible:
Endorsed – Julian Leparoux/Mike Maker – 15-1 - Fourth in this event last year, but was well below par in a pair of subsequent G3 contests. His current form and speed figures are eons away from what it would take to even make an impact.
Analysis: The Pegasus Stakes has always been run true to form for the race favorite. Four of the previous winners were the post time betting choices and two other winners were second choice in the wagering. That bodes well for Cyberknife, who is expected to be the betting favorite for the seventh running. The Brad Cox colt holds a class edge and any one of his speed figures from his last four starts certainly can get it done here, barring something unforeseen that would result in a big upset.
Outside posts at Gulfstream have traditionally been a hinderance to horses exiting them, and not only is Cyberknife trying to do what his sire Gun Runner did five years ago, which is, end his racing career on a winning note, but he’ll have to do it breaking from the same post 10 as dear old dad did.
I’m comfortable backing Cyberknife can do it. I don’t really see a reason why he gets beat in this race. He has the best races, has the talent, has excelled at the nine-furlong distance and should get a favorable pace set up from just behind the leaders. In addition, Geroux knows this horse very well and he knows how to time rides like this.
Wager: $100 ThoroFan mythical dollars to be played in the following manner
$30 win on Cyberknife - $10 exactas Cyberknife over Skippylongstocking, Defunded and Proxy.
$5 Trifecta Key – Key Cyberknife over the same three horses. Cost $30
Also, Skippylongstocking is a bonafide win threat who I respect and will use in a $10 reverse exacta with my top choice.
Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!
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