Handicapper's Corner: Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3)

Hot Pace in Sam Davis Stakes - Who will Prevail?

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $250,000 Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes is the first of two 2023 Kentucky Derby qualifying preps contested at Tampa Bay Downs, and it is a stepping stone to the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 11. The top five official finishers are awarded a scale of 20-8-6-4-2 qualifying points.

 

The 1 1/16 mile event is featured as race ten of 11. A dozen 3-year-old colts and geldings are entered, including Remsen Stakes (G2) winner Dubyuhnell, the Pasco Stakes winner and runner-up Zydeceaux and Champions Dream, plus the Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner (through disqualification) Dreaming of Kona.

This year's Sam Davis Stakes is wide-open, and a case can be made for and against most contenders. So let's take a closer look at the field.

Favorites

7. Dubyuhnell (9-5) won two of three career starts, both victories over sloppy tracks. His Brisnet speed rating jumped from a tepid 83 at a mile when he graduated in his second start to a 100 rating in the Remsen Stakes (G2). Good Magic's son has tactical speed and can close or press. Contender.

9. Champions Dream (9-2) closed to miss the victory in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes as the beaten favorite in his first start for the Mark Casse barn. He ping-ponged between rivals at the start of the race and then raced widest of all at the back of the six-horse field. Champions Dream made a sustained drive around the turn, then battled down the lane with a stubborn Zydeceaux, who wouldn't let him pass.

Previously, Champions Dream captured the one-mile Nashua (G3) for Danny Gargan. Justify's son is making his first start around two turns and should enjoy the extra distance. Contender.

11. Litigate (5-1) was no match for Cyclone Mischief while making his second career start. He finished best of the rest, 5 ¾ lengths behind, and got his final quarter in a pokey 27.25. Unfortunately, the winner returned to finish a dull seventh in the Holy Bull Stakes, so class is suspect. On a positive note, the Todd Pletcher trainee drilled two recent bullets, including a pre-race four furlongs in :48.13. Over the last three years, Pletcher has 11% winners with 37% in the money, with 3-year-olds making their second start off the layoff in a graded stakes. Exotics.

 

Live Longshots

3. Classic Legacy (12-1) Is making his first start of the season after graduating in his third try last year at Aqueduct. This seems an odd place for Classic Legacy to start his 3-year-old campaign; however, Bill Mott has been on fire this winter, capturing the Pegasus Invitational (G1) and recently completing the exacta in the Holy Bull (G3). Over the last five years, Mott has started a trio of last-out maiden winners making their first start at three in a stakes. He hit the board with two, including Tactius in the Tampa Bay Derby. Over the last three months, Mott and Alvarado hit the winner's circle 22% of the time and were in the money 47%. Additionally, Classic Legacy has tactical speed and can lay off a hot pace. Contender.

2. Prairie Hawk (6-1) enters the Sam Davis with two straight victories at Tampa for Saffie Joseph, Jr. In his last start, he beat only three rivals, including Groveland by a length. However, Curlin's son's speed ratings are rising, plus leading jock Samy Camacho is in the driver's seat. Additionally, Prairie Hawk's half-brother Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), which is evidence of class. On the downside, Prairie Hawk will have to deal with other speed types. Still worth a look at 6-1 odds. Exotics.

10. Dreaming of Kona (12-1) earned the Mucho Macho Man Stakes victory through DQ when he was impeded by Legacy Isle coming over on him in deep stretch. It was 5 ¾ lengths back to the third-place finisher. The Mucho Macho Man lost some luster when Legacy Isle faded to fourth place after setting the pace in the Holy Bull (G3). Still, Dreaming of Kona can sit off the pace, and he's never finished out of the money. Exotics.

 

Summary

Three favorites have won in the last decade, and three completed the trifecta. Eight placed first or second in their previous start, four at Gulfstream. The majority of the winners were pacesetters or pressers.

The winning profile fits 11 of the 12 entries, so yes, this is a very contentious race.

There's a ton of speed in the Sam Davis. In fact, the entire field are pacesetter/presser types. Zydeceaux, on the far outside, is a confirmed speedster. He also has a sprinter's pedigree and may be used early to get to the front. However, I predict he'll fade when the actual running starts.

I'm going with the longshot Classic Legacy on top. Mott doesn't ship for the fun of it, plus Mott, Alvarado, and the sire, Into Mischief, have been on fire lately. At 12-1 morning odds, it's an enticing bet.

3. Classic Legacy (12-1)

7. Dubyuhnell (9-5)

9. Champions Dream (9-2)

2. Prairie Hawk (6-1)