Hoosier Pick for the Rachel Alexandra Stakes?
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
The $300,000 Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes, named, of course, for the Champion and fan favorite, is a major stepping stone to the 2023 Kentucky Oaks. The 1 1/16 mile contest offers a scale of 50-20-15-10-5 points to the first five finishers, in this case, to all but the unfortunate lass who finishes last.
Oddly enough, Rachel Alexandra never competed in the prep, which has undergone a few name changes over the years. However, that doesn't diminish the significance of the race, and the winner's roll call reads like a who's who of accomplished fillies.
Untapable, Monomoy Girl, Serengeti Empress, Summerly, and Silverbulletday are some of the names enshrined as Rachel Alexandra/ Kentucky Oaks winners. Other notables are Grade 1 heroines Clairiere, I'm a Chatterbox, Shadow Cast, and Take Charge Lady, to name but a few.
This year's edition of the Rachel Alexandra contains a competitive field of six led by Hoosier Philly. However, favorites win this race only 33% of the time, so let's examine the field for the most likely to upset the race.
Tom Amos has kept the pretty gray filly busy in the mornings, firing three consecutive pre-race bullets at the Fair Grounds. Hoosier Philly has tactical speed and can press or follow the pace. 50% of Tom Amoss' 3-year-old charges hit the board in stakes when making their 3-year-old debut after a layoff.
Chop Chop (8-5) shook the dust off in the Silverbulletday Stakes. City of Light's daughter had a three-wide trip throughout and was carried six-wide around the turn into the stretch by The Alys Look. The pair dueled down the lane, but Chop Chop got a little leg weary after her earlier efforts and finished a length behind The Alys Look. To her credit, the rest were over 13 lengths behind. The Brad Cox trainee is poised to move forward off the effort and poses the most significant threat to Hoosier Philly
Last year, Chop Chop fought eventual champ Wonder Wheel to a nose decision in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1), Chop Chop missed the photo, but the race showed her determination and class. She had a very wide trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and never threatened.
She gets a shiny new set of blinkers to keep her focused. Brad Cox has a 13% win rate and 50% in the money with 3-year-olds in their second start off the layoff and first-time blinkers.
Pretty Mischievous (9-2) tasted defeat for the only time in her short four-race career at the hooves of Hoosier Philly in the Golden Rod. It was the Brendan Walsh trainee's first try at two turns and in a stakes. Previously she beat lesser foes sprinting, and after her Golden Rod effort, she returned to capture the 1 mile 70 yard Untapable Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths, beating Vahva. Like the top two contenders, Pretty Mischievous has tactical speed.
Vahva (8-1) graduated in her third start, then faced Pretty Mischievous in the Untapable Stakes. The Cherie DeVaux went to her knees at the start, and Luis Saez gave her time to recover. She made a wide rally around the turn, but in an effort to find room in the stretch, Saez took her to the inside, then back outside. They lost precious ground with the maneuver but continued to gain third place. Gun Runner's daughter should appreciate the extra distance; if she gets a clean start, she could surprise. DeVaux's 3-year-olds hit the board 48% off the layoff.
Knockyoursocksoff (12-1) has been knocking at the door of a stakes victory, but she's faced tough company. Kitten's Joy's daughter began her career on turf. She graduated at first asking and finished a distant five-length second in the Jessamine Stakes (G2) after a very slow start and a wide rally.
Then the Chris Block trainee made a successful switch to dirt and finished strongly to finish second behind Hoosier Philly in the Golden Rod. Knockyoursocksoff has a strong closing kick and may rely on a swift early pace to set up her run.
Last year, Turnerloose returned from a 14th-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies to capture the Rachel Alexandra at double-digit odds.
Miracle (12-1) steps into open company after struggling against New York restricted stakes class runners. She's hit the board in all four starts, but her only victory was debuting against state-bred maidens. Mendelssohn's daughter makes her first start for the Pletcher barn and has a tough assignment ahead of her. Miracle does her best work on the lead, yet she loses ground in the stretch, which is not a good indicator that she'll handle two turns.
Analysis
The favorite has won four times and placed three times in the last dozen years. Nine winners hit the board in their last start, and six won off the layoff.
Miracle is the likely pacesetter but unlikely winner. She'll vie for the lead early from her outside post. The rest will be content to sort themselves out behind her.
With only six runners entered, this is a jockey's race. There's a confirmed pacesetter (Miracle) and one-run closer (Knockyoursocksoff), and the rest will sort themselves out in between.
Hoosier Philly is the obvious one to beat. Undefeated has beaten others in the field and has spectacular works. What's not to like? It's hard to bet against a deserved favorite.
So who can step up if Hoosier Philly stubs a hoof? Pretty much, anyone, it becomes wide open at that point.
Chop Chop has the physical advantage; she's the sole filly with a recent race under her girth.
Pretty Mischievous is an obvious choice, but I like Vahva
to turn the tables. Knockyoursocksoff will make a late move and
should be included.
2. Hoosier Philly (6-5)
4. Chop Chop (8-5)
1. Vahva (8-1)
5. Pretty Mischievous (9-2)
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