All Fired Up for the Florida Derby!
By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member
It’s a new world, for the world, isn’t it? But the world of
horse racing continues with many restrictions for the fan base with no
attendance at the tracks while the crews and connections follow Covid-19
guidelines to continue our sport. And horse racing is the only major sport
still active around the world to my knowledge.
What remains for us as fans is an opportunity to see this
great race from afar, on TV and via the internet. As depressing as the current
situation is; try to find some bright spots along the way. Maybe you dress up
in your best race hats, pull out the fish dip and crackers, get a beverage and
have a virtual party with your Pals via Skype to toast the winners. So fire up
your hardware and check your accounts for a great race.
Programming Note: Javier Castellano will not be at
today’s races as he is in quarantine for Covid-19. We won’t know who else is
positive until the day begins. Note 2: The Pick 6 is in play and will be paid
out on this race.
We seem to have more than full field with an AE, of which
there are four strong win contenders and the remaining longshots. And the track
has been playing fast and favoring speed horses.
All the top jockeys at the meet are here with some out of
town guests with the exception of Javier. Some of the nation’s top trainers are
here to vie for the title including five times winner Todd Pletcher who hooks
up with Johnny V. again. Don’t know who has the mount for Pletcher’s other
colt, Candy Tycoon.
Let’s handy this one….
#1 As Seen on TV (12-1) – Breen/Lopez – This Looking
at Lucky colt likes to track the pace close but got wrung out in the FOY Stakes
after being boxed to the turn following a 56 day break when he lost by a head
in the Mucho Macho Man going 103. He’s had two good works since last out
including a bullet. Second off the break, makes 100+ twice, sired by Preakness
and Haskell winner and his jockey won 7 the other day on a single card and
continues to the winner’s circle on a regular basis. This is an ITM horse
Looking (no pun) and if the connections change their pace positioning, he might
upset. He needs to be near the top.
#2 Shivaree (30-1) – Nicks/Jaramillo – This guy is in
the money a lot going shorter and may try to be part of the pace early on from
an inside post and an aggressive jockey. He goes blinkers off which is not
going to improve his breeding that does not suggest success at the distance.
Daddy was a sprinter a mom wasn’t very keen. Chances are low that he will be in
the money for this one.
#3 Dic Jockey (20-1) – Saffie/Gaffalione – He’s been
on a 40 day rest after winning a stakes here going seven furlongs. He’s gotten
four works in since then and they look good. His trainer has been just stellar
at Gulfstream this meet, and Tyler gets it done for him 24% of the time. I
expect we all know his sire, Bodemiester and the talent that he showed. Given
the above I think this guy improves off his last in both pace and speed to
break past the 100 barrier. He’s a closer folks and that doesn’t seem to fit
today track but, I expect he needs to be in the exotics.
#4 Soros (30-1) – Delgado/Prado – 119 days is a long
break for any horse. Soros got back on the work tab with six works going well
with two at 6 furlongs and a bullet five move. This will be a first start as a
three year old. Challenging situation and a big ask. In his favor is Delgado’s
record at the meet is excellent and Edgar is on a high just past Cordero for
wins yesterday for 7057. As a team these two hit at 25%. Can’t speak to how
good the horse really is but he could be an extreme longshot given his sire’s
performance in the Belmont when Commissioner took it to them losing by a head
to Tonalist when California Chrome lost his Triple Crown bid. Gotta throw him
in the bottom of a tri or super.
#5 Gouverneur Morris (8-1) – Pletcher/Velazquez – Now
this is a team. I think they are the top winners for this event with five wins
each; four of them as a team. GM has been the favorite in every race he’s
entered. Hope he’s not disappointed with being the fourth ML pick. Like As Seen
on TV his style is to track the pace and pounce. Don’t let the lower level
optional claiming race fool ya. His trainer wanted a race under his belt to
prep for this. He’s had a work every ten days or so going well. By
Constitution, who is changing the statistics in the new sire rank, there is no
durability or ability question. Logical ITM play on or near the top given the
connections.
#6 Ajaaweed (30-1) – McLaughlin/Saez – I’m kinda
wondering why this fella is here. One win in five lifetime, likes to run late
in the high 80s and lost badly in the SF Davis in Tampa to Independence Hall by
11+ lengths. This is Kairan’s last outing as a trainer as he moves on to the
agent ranks. He will be missed. Luis Saez is at the top of the class at
Gulfstream right now and I’m sure will make a best effort with his mount, but I
can’t imagine Ajaaweed making an impact.
#7 Tiz the Law (6/5) – Tagg/Franco – I picked this
fella in the first Derby pool and his sire in that pool. Think his three for
four record with two graded stakes wins and can fire a 108 here in the Holy
Bull says a lot about his ability. He’s been rested for 56 days and worked five
time with a nice 1:13 six and a bullet five a week before. Manny is 50% with
Tagg in two tries. Tiz’s early tracking style and pace make him a win
contender. The only drawback is the comments about getting in trouble at the
gate. That concerns me as it is expected that the early pace will be contested,
and the track have favored speed. Any delay from the gate hurts his chances.
#8 My First Grammy (50-1) – Sanchez/Berrios – My
question is why? There is no doubt about this colt’s pedigree and ability in
the future will improve but at this level with his past performances, there is
little doubt where he will be in the finish order. No.
#9 Independence Hall (9/2) – Trombetta/Rosario –
Another stalwart performer from Constitution in this year’s crop. A Grade III
winner at two and a race favorite in all his races to date, he gave up his lead
in the Tampa stakes late. He is an on or near the lead type and fits the
scenario for Gulfstream He gets Rosario aboard and Joel is a master craftsman
at pace. Brisnet gives him the number one power rating but I would put him
second or third behind Tiz the Law and Ete Indien.
#10 Candy Tycoon (20-1) – Pletcher/????? – A Twirling
Candy colt who has won one of six career starts and was 8+ lengths behind Ete
Indien in the Fountain of Youth Stakes 28 days ago. He goes with plus four
pounds this time. Yes, he gutted it out to take second from As Seen on Tv, but
I expect limited improvement off that run. Toss. We don’t know who gets the
ride yet.
#11 Sassy But Smart (50-1) – Condie/Bravo – Here is
another question Why? Can’t see a colt who’s been traveling the lawn and whose
sire’s career ended after three races making something special happen here. A
good candidate for the AE to replace. Toss.
#12 Ete Indien (4-1) – Biancone/Geroux – This FOY
winner looks great. He’s three for five lifetime, has mustered three races in a
row at 103+, on 28 days rest (ideal) he shot a warm down works and bullet seven
and a bullet four at Palm Meadows and the connections are good. Looks to be the
most fit or the field to me and I like the current odds. My top pick.
#13 Rogue Element (50-1) – Romans/Vazquez – This also
eligible Honor Code colt is the best of the 50 to 1 longshots in the field
although he is a maiden. He has the same faults as the others; lacking
experience against a high level, low speeds, and a work tab that is uninspiring.
If he gets in, I would throw him in the bottom of a Superfecta just because.
My best successes in betting are with patterned Trifectas.
If the odds are right, I’ll use two win picks on top and then fill in the space
below with long and short contenders to round out the bet in a $0.50 bet. That
gives me the option of playing one or multiple bets to match my bankroll. We
have a field of 12 to play today which is the max that can go if everyone runs.
I’ll toss the 2, 6, 8, 10, 11, and the 13 AE. I will use the remaining seven in
the bet.
$0.50 Trifecta - 1, 12 with 1, 5, 7, 9, 12 with 1, 3, 4, 5,
7, 9, 12 = $20
It’s half the price if you key the 12 on top and half again
if you put the 12 in second…You can bet my winner or pick one of your own in
the format below for a low-cost safety bet.
$0.50 Trifecta - 12 with 1, 5, 7, 9, with 1, 3, 4, 5, 7,
9 = $10
$0.50 Trifecta - 1, 5, 7, 9 with 12 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9,
12 = $10
Now for a safety reminder:
Some of the recent news in our racing world has not been the
best and the coronavirus has further threatened our sport not to mention our
families and friends around the world.
Funny thing is most of us ride the
internet carefree because we have a Virus Protection in place, right? But we
have no Virus protection for this bug or a bug fix either. Make no mistake;
invisible deadly bullets are flying out there and you won’t know who is armed
and dangerous until you’ve been hit. Then you won’t know you’ve been hit for
several days while you take the new bullets someone gave you home to others.
Troubling times call for personal change and an assessment
of risk to make changes that will reduce your exposure. We do have ways to
avoid or reduce the threat. It’s like not going outside during hurricanes or
tornadoes when bullets are flying or betting money you can’t afford to lose is
common sense.
Best way to avoid being struck by a bullet is; not to get into a gunfight. If you have to get in a gunfight (check with the Vets and Law
Enforcement) the second best thing is to wear your protection, e.g.; armor,
vest, and helmet. Not getting out of your bunker (home/safe space) and not
letting others in that have a loaded weapon will significantly reduce you and
your families’ risk of being a victim of a bullet.
When you leave your safe
space, wear your gloves, take the sanitizer and wipes with you and protect your
space. You may not completely avoid the stray bullet from a drive-by but,
you’ll have done your best. Please, Practice Common Sense. I want to see you at
the tracks.
Jockeys Wear Protection for their Safety and Jobs. Shouldn’t
We All?
