Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Santa Margarita Stakes (G2)

La Force Intriguing Prospect in Santa Margarita

By: John DaSilva, PARX Linemaker

 

The Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap is an interesting race that is being run at Santa Anita. The mile and an eighth race was downgraded this year by the American Graded Stakes Committee, one of six races downgraded from Grade 1 to Grade 2 status. 

The race is hoping to regain Grade 1 status and this year’s field, depending on the results here and the future, may help make that happen.

The 9/5 morning line favorite in the race is Paradise Woods. The winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks and 2017 Zenyatta Stakes makes her third start for John Shirreffs.  She has lost her last seven starts since winning the Zenyatta. She comes into this race off a third place finish in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile Stakes. She will be ridden today by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. Shirreffs has been known to work his horses back into shape so this could be the key race for her for the rest of the year. Her class should take her to the winners’ circle versus these. But if she continues to fade in the stretch as she did in most of her recent losses, then it might be time to stop on her as a racing prospect.

The 3/1 second choice on the morning line is Lemoona. She was third to the impressive Escape Clause in the Grade 3 La Canada in January two starts back when making her last start on dirt. That was her only career graded stakes placing. The Richard Baltas trainee may have learned a new style of running with her victory last out, breaking slowly and being further off the pace than usual, but then made a wide move and drew off to a 5 ¼ length victory on April 6^th on turf going a mile and an eighth. She will be ridden here by Aaron Gryder.

An intriguing prospect in this race is the 4-1 third choice La Force, who is making her first start since tiring in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. While her record of 23-2-7-4 isn’t going to scare anyone away, her three consecutive second pace finishes in Grade 1 races last year prior to the Distaff is nothing to sneeze at. She is still looking for her first career stakes victory and if ready off the five plus month layoff, she could get it done under Drayden Van Dyke.

While the horse is a longshot, the jockey for the Ian Kruljac trained Exuberance is a story to watch here and down the road. Norberto Arroyo Jr. is named to ride the 20-1. Despite what Equibase says, this is Arroyo’s first mount since November 19, 2017. Arroyo has dealt with injuries and personal issues but hopefully the talented jockey is healthy physically and mentally for this comeback.

Selections

Betting the race can be an adventure here. The question is, how much does the public trust Paradise Woods. While the classy mare figures to be the main pacesetter of the race, we are going to key on another horse in hopes of getting value and the victory. 

La Force will be our top choice. Despite the layoff, she has the running style that fits well here. She should take over from the tiring pacesetter in the stretch and go on to victory.

Handigamblng

We suggest betting $20 across the board on La Force. Then have a $10 exacta box of La Force with Paradise Woods and Lemoona.  $100 total.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Charlestown Classic (G2)

Charlestown Classic Over and Underlays

By: The Turk

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our eleventh year of blogging and celebrating 33 years of horse playing, if that's something to be celebrated (I know it is by my rabid audience of readers.) 



I'd like to thank The Thorofan, and the Handicapper's Corner, for this opportunity to share my thoughts with you today on the Good Friday. 

This is the sort of race I hear a lot of fellow horse players starting to call this year's edition of the upcoming Kentucky Derby, a bettors race.  There is no heavy favorite, there are multiple horses a handicapper can make a case for, and there is a growing feeling of a chaotic mutual end result.  Perhaps that's the case here but that also assumes the big three don't factor in the top two if you are an exacta player.  At worst, the lowest of the favorite odds is finishing second and long odds win the race.  The big three by the morning line have winning odds that add up to 60.5% and if you put the top four Morning Line odds in you are at 77%. 

While it's a subject for another day, you should be focused on who can win and how does the overall public view the odds of the horse you identified could win.  In doing this analysis you are creating a fair odds line for yourself.  You'll notice the odds on the Morning Line's don't add up to 100% and the reason for that is pesky little things like takeout (major) and a bunch of other small deducts from your betting dollar like rounding and breakage (minor).  Ignore that.  I'll actually take a minute to tell you that if you are gambling solely on morning line odds you should really consider reading a good book and learning to handicap yourself because most track odds makers tend to introduce biases into their work, and they have an obligation to tell you the most likely winning odds, not who is an overlay. 

Overlay: An underestimated horse by the betting public. 

Underlay: An overestimated horse by the betting public and what you get when you read and consume most horse racing fluff pieces. 

I'm jumping ahead, but quite frankly this discussion to me is more interesting the the actual race and maybe helpful to my readers who are more casual and social bettors.  Look at my chart below.  

Diamond King was a 20% ML winner and I have him at 18.19%.  That is first signal of open betting race, a ML and Fair Line odds of 4-1 or worse. 

Look at Unbridled Jean:  6.25% ML, a 15-1 shot, yet the Turk Fair Line has him at 14.29% or 6-1.  Forget if I'm right or wrong, that is the Overlay you are looking for.  To get better as a handicapper you have to practice.  To get better as a bettor you have to trust your handicapping and act on when you identify an Overlay.  I can't tell you how many times I'd identify Overlays but lacked the courage to bet them or even put them in a chart like this because of fear of comments from other handicappers or on social media.  Think about it like this:  I gave Unbridled Jean odds to not finish first 85.71%.  When he doesn't win tomorrow was I dumb for betting him?  Another subject for another day but if you are betting a safe choice, with short odds in the Win Spot race after race, you need a new hobby. 

 Underlays?  Again this race isn't great for the examples because of the relatively small bid-ask between the ML and the Fair Lines, but Discreet Lover, a horse and trainer I absolutely love as a fan, by my handicap is the biggest underlay, and with that pronouncement,"... let's announce to the winners circle....Discreet Lover." 

Let this bald handicapping idiot savant shut up for a moment and let’s get after the race!

  

My handicap and thinking are influenced by the fact I expect the track to still be wet at race time tomorrow.  I know most of the rains will be gone by post time but I think a lot will fall and I have to consider what I think the track will be like based on what I know now so this rubbish insightful commentary can be published before lunch on Friday, 30 hours before the race.  You don't have that burden, so use the information you have effectively, such as track conditions and scratches and changes. 

I like Diamond King, son of Quality Road, buts he nothing more than light chalk. I could run down the whole field but I'm not sure of the value quite frankly.  

In bullet points:

• Diamond King: 4 YO with 5 wins in 11 career starts.  Low 400 Tomlinson. last race win as chalk. Servis and Castellano 0-4 over past year together.  Tepid.
• Unbridled Jean:  7 YO loses class war but solid career with 25 of 29 races in the money.  6 of 7 in the money over wet dirt. good early speed, strong final kick, will need tactical speed breaking from 10 post. 
• War Story:  Easy Choice, Safe bet. 16 of 32 in the money with $2.6 MM in earnings from a $5,000 stud fee. I think he gets bet hard and goes to gate 2-1 or 3-2. 2 wins in 3 wet races. 
• Mongolian Groom: California Shipper.  Trainer Genbat no stakes wins in past year.  Slow Early, good late speed.  Breaking along rail. Eh. 
• Rally Cry: Last win April 2017. Race best 417 Tomlinson but one Show wet start. Good overall speed early and slow.  Pletcher an amazing 33% winner off +180 day layoff as hasn't gone since Woodward.  Was my chalk, still could win, one of those horses that should be better than his record, 6 YO and 14 career starts.  

 
I don't know what i'm going to do yet, but I'll take my top five and assemble win and exacta bets.  If forced to choose now I'm leaning towards something simple like this: Unbridled Jean 10 Over  3-9-1-4 a $2 Exacta for $8.  Odds of winning low,  odds of paying well if it does win, high.  That's how the long game is played.  My real inclination is to walk away but you only need to win a few of these low risk $8 bets in a year to boost your overall ROI. 

Have fun with it friends! 

Turk Out. 

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Arkansas Derby (G1)

Improbable Winner in Arkansas Derby

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Chairman 

The Arkansas Derby is the last hope for some horses to find their way to the Kentucky Derby. The race’s 100 qualifying points will guarantee the winner a spot in the gate. Only two horse in the race already have enough points to be in the Derby field on May 4, 2019. They are: Omaha Beach (#19 with 37.5 points) and Long Range Toddy (#11 with 53.5 points). Clearly Omaha Beach needs to pick-up a share of the points to improve his chances. Long Range Toddy for trainer Asmussen would like to repeat his Rebel win and collect 60% of the million-dollar purse. The rest need to be in the money if they have any Derby aspirations.   


The prep for this race was the Rebel Stakes (GII) run on March 16^th in two divisions. With the closing of Santa Anita its Derby prep, the San Felipe, was cancelled. This forced a number of west coast horses to migrate to Arkansas for the Rebel Stakes and Derby points. These races were confusing for many handicappers. One division showed a bias for speed, while the other showed the opposite.

1.  Improbable ((City Zip) made a closing move in the Rebel, but was passed by Long Range Toddy. As the favorite the move by jockey Van Dyke was unexplained. Baffert goes to Jose Ortiz for a better ride. Rail draw may compromise.

2.  Six Shooter (Trappe Shot) is taking a big step up in class. Working nicely, but is not fast enough for this race. Maybe next race.

3.  Omaha Beach (War Front) is fit and ready. Mike Smith returns to try to notch another win, even though it would seem he already has his Derby horse. Drew perfectly to track the early speed and move when they tire. Looks like a serious contender in need of an insurance policy to get in the Derby field.

4.  Tikhvin Flew (Street Sense) fought the bias in the Gotham Stakes. Although breeding says so, his past performances suggest he might like a shorter race. Will push the pace for others.  Maybe in exotics?

5.  Laughing Fox (Union Rags) starting from inside he had trouble in early stages of the Rebel Stakes and was not able to regain position. The combination of jockey Santana and trainer Asmussen is powerful in Arkansas Derby. Drawing mid-pack in this race should give Santana a clean start and chance to position for a late run. Maybe?

6.  Gray Attempt (Graydar) will again try to get out front of the field and improve his position. However, it backfired in the Southwest Stakes and should here.

7.  Galilean (Uncle Mo) connections thought he could win the Rebel Stakes, but couldn’t overtake Improbable and was dusted by Long Range Toddy. Keeps jockey Prat and takes off blinkers. Since trainer Hollendorfer is not that successful with the blinkers off move, suspicion is they are guessing. Will they guess right?

8.  Country House (Lookin At Lucky) is the only one in the field that has tried the 8-furlong distance. He did it in the Louisiana Derby but had trouble in the 1^st and 2^nd turns which took him out of contention. New jockey may make the difference.

9.  One Flew South (Giant’s Causeway) is jumping up in class, however with Borel up anything can happen. Fast out of the gate. Will assure the pace is a good one. After that who knows.

10.  Jersey Agenda (Jersey Town) is showing some improvement, but not likely enough to make a difference here. Jockey Ortiz goes to Improbable for Baffert. Asmussen puts up Vazquez who has a 26% win percentage for him. Interesting. Another pace setter.

11.  Long Rane Toddy (Take Charge Indy) is a solid closer as he proved in the Rebel Stakes. Asmussen has four horses in the field of eleven. Two are pace setters ( Tikhvin and Jersey Agenda). This one is his best shot run the field down for a second win.

On so many variables Improbable is the real deal. Working great and improving pattern suggests Baffert has him ready. He needs to win or place to get enough qualifying points to get into the Derby. However, his post position is a problem, especially with Mike Smith on Omaha Beach one path to his outside who will surely try to box him in. Other speeders will reinforce Smith’s strategy. 

As the field settles into the final turn, Omaha Beach and the long shot, Tikhvin Flew, should be on the lead. Galilean should be right behind looking for a way to win. Note here that the trainer of Galilean, Hollendorfer, came into the Rebel after the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita was cancelled. May not have been fully prepared for that race. Trying now with blinkers off. Could surprise at a price.

With all the speed in the race, two solid closer are legitimate contenders ---Country House and Long Range Toddy. However, both will need to improve off last to make it to the Winner’s Circle.

So here is how I see the race finishing:

#7  Galilean (#7)

#8  Country House (#8)

#3  Omaha Beach (#3)

#4  Tikhvin Flew (#4)

Handigamble:

$20 win and $40 to place on Galilean (#7)                   $60

$5 Exacta Box Galilean (#7) and Country House (#8)  $10

$1.00 Trifecta Box (#3, #4, #7 and #8,)                     $24

Good luck, but keep the day job.

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

Dethroning the Queen of Keeneland

By: Alex Sausville, RTIP Podcast

 

For a racing fan, the first days of spring did not come on the date of March 20th, 2019. Instead, they arise with the sun on opening day at Keeneland Race Course. As the bluegrass fans pile in for several weeks of top notch racing, the fillies and mares with hopes of major stakes campaigns throughout the summer and fall gaze towards the starting gate of the Jenny Wiley.

There are few stakes races that have produced future success to the level of the Coolmore Jenny Wiley. One major example would be the great Tepin, who parlayed a victory in the Jenny Wiley with the bookmakers of England in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Other winners include Dickinson, Hard Not To Like, Centre Court, and most recently the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner, Sistercharlie.

Coming off a long layoff, there could be some questions to be answered for the 6/5 ML favorite, Rushing Fall. Although Rushing Fall has shown success on the green grass of horse country in the past, I will be looking towards what seems to be the greatest prep race for the Jenny Wiley in recent memory, the Hillsborough.

Race Analysis:

A horse like Rushing Fall has one true question mark and that is the recent layoff. Off since a victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland last October, Rushing Fall will face a tough challenge in coming back in this very solid grade 1 event and prove she has not lost a step. Despite the layoff, there are very few faults in her resume. Trained by last year’s winning trainer Chad Brown, Rushing Fall is 3 for 3 at Keeneland, all three of which are graded stakes races. She also had a very similar layoff following her 2017 victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar, and came back strong going a mile in the grade 2 Appalachian at Keeneland. This is a horse whose only career loss came by the length of her neck in the grade 3 Edgewood at Churchill Downs.

Despite Rushing Fall being considered the heavy favorite, the likely 2nd choice, Rymska(Fr), will come out as possibly the most likely opponent to upend Rushing Fall, as well as looking to join a couple recent Jenny Wiley winners who prepped for this event down in Western Florida. Rymska is coming off a two length score in the Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The Hillsborough has been won by many successful horses including several Breeders Cup winners. Horses like Zagora, Stephanie’s Kitten and Tepin all captured the Hillsborough and continued on to great seasons. However, it was Tepin in 2016 as well as 2017 winner Dickinson who came from Tampa up through the bluegrass state and took the Jenny Wiley as well. With the question of how Rushing Fall comes back for this race, Rymska and the history of past winners give her the best shot to pull off a victory.

When looking through the rest of the field, there was one other horse that truly caught my eye and at a good price, should run a big race this Saturday. Princess Warrior, a 4-year old filly for trainer Kenny McPeek will be on her 2nd start back off a 3 month layoff that began with a victory in the Latonia at Turfway Park(or the old Latonia Race Course) in early March. This is a horse that has shown the ability to win at the distance in the past and could be getting back into good form at the right time to post a nice upset in the Saturday feature. The winner of last year’s Mrs. Revere at Churchill Downs has had only one race at Keeneland in the past and it came with a 4th place finish to Rushing Fall. However, if this horse continues to progress like I am expecting, she has the potential to flip the script.

My Plays:

$30 to win on 4 - Rymska(Fr)

$15 to win on 3 - Princess Warrior

$5 Ex Key Box - 4/2,3 = $20

$5 Ex Key Box - 3/2,4 = $20

$ 2 Tri Box - 2,3,4 = $12

Total: $97

Final Thoughts:

It is no secret to the racing world the true talent of Rushing Fall. A horse that thrives in the Blue Grass State and has been as consistent as it gets. However, at very short odds and the question of coming back after the long break, the opportunity to knock off a possibly overbet favorite and catch some really good value has come upon us. If a few of the challengers lined up for Saturday’s 10th race come to play, the current queen of Keeneland can be dethroned. 

Side Note:

The last race I wrote for was the Fair Grounds Oaks. I wanted to give a special shout out to the guy sitting a few tables down from me at Sunland Park on that Saturday. With just 3 minutes to post, he told one of his friends sitting next to him who had looked at the race to not worry about it. The exact words were, “unless the jockey falls off, that horse(Serengeti Empress) will not have a problem.” Although I did not have the right winner in Street Band, I appreciated the words of the guy who definitely did not help Serengeti Empress in her quest for the Fair Grounds Oaks and led to a 7th place finish at odds of ⅕. Such overconfidence is often frowned upon by superstitious horseplayers, myself included.