Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Hillsborough Stakes (G2)

Seeing Green in the Hillsborough Stakes 

By: The Turk

Hawksmoor (Ire)  Photo by SV Photography 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 11th year of handicapping and bet  construction for people who never asked for it.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today about the Grade 2 Hillsborough, a route of grass for four year old and up Fillies and Mares at Tampa Bay Downs.




 It's important to bring consistency to your handicapping methods if you want to achieve consistent results.  I like to start any handicap by checking the weather and the expected track conditions prior to starting to analyze the field.  The weather has been wet and the races were off the track on Wednesday but things look dry since Thursday and you can check here for track conditions but I'm going to assume if its not firm its close to firm.

Lets get after the review of this field.


Sometimes it’s hard to find good video at Youtube for these sort of runners. That's not an offense to Grade 3 Filly and Mare runners, it’s just a reality that fewer and fewer of us care enough to record and post.  You can find very good video at a site like Twinspires and their Twinspires TV.  When video is lacking, and even when it's not, reviewing race charts to supplement the Past Performances is always a useful endevour.

Speaking of endevours, the  Grade 3 Endevour at Tampa Bay Downs contested  at 1/16 of a mile less grass and "kinda firm" like I expect Saturday will be is a good place to start.  Exiting that race from 9 February are Hawksmoor who won by rating, a new trick for an old girl, Viva Vegas, Streetwithnoname, Get Explicit and Goodyearforroses (Ire), while the other key race to study is the Grade 3 Suwannee River from GP on 9 February as well in which my chalk Rymska (Fr) came up Place but short as the heavily bet favorite that day and Peach of a Gal over performed it's much bigger price to get up for Show.

I like to use DRF PDF Race Charts.  For the older races, just select the track you want and manipulate the web address to get to the date you want.

Just change that date at the end to 20190209 and hit enter and away you go.

TAM 9 February Race 10:  1 1/16 Firm Turf; G3 Endevour F and M 4 YO and Up.

The interesting thing about this race is clearly at 6 YO and racing for the last time before breeding to Kitten's Joy, Hawksmoor rated and rallied off a fast pace of :23, 47 1/5, 1:11.... I like Viva Vegas exiting as well and late turns of foot by Goodyearfortheroses (Fr) and Streetwithnoname shouldn't be ignored.


GP 9 February 2019 Race 6:  1 1/8 Firm Turf;  G3 Suwannee River F and M  4 YO and Up
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This is a second off a 45-180 day layoff for Rymska (Fr) who failed as the heavily bet favorite to win in first start since 2 December.   Trainer Chad Brown's stats are hard to put in perspective because they are so gaudy, but he's 26% winner off these layoffs, a 29% Turf winner, a 29% route winner and 23% Graded Stakes Winner.  No one else is close in this field with those figures.  4 YO Peach of a Gal set high career Beyer in that race which maybe signals a step forward but I need to see a bit more from the daughter of Curlin trained by Graham Motion.  

The pace scenario is a bit of a mystery to me.  The early speed is Hawksmoor, with a Timeform early 112 and no one else is greater than 80.  I'm guessing that the rating shown in the last race is abandoned and she is sent to the front.  The extra distance is not something she has done well with, a lifetime winless in 4 tries with 2 show finishes.  I think Conditioner Delacour sends her to the front and plays catch me if you can.  Perhaps that's suicide because there is alot of late speed here.  So maybe his instructions are to Bravo to rate and stay close Rymska (Fr), but is that a good plan either?

My handicap assumes the latter, that she reverts back to what she's done for 23 starts in which she has 10 Place and Show finishes to go with her 6 wins (1 win in last 7) and that is to go to the front and carry for as long as possible.   I think she does get caught and I can see any of the 7-3-8 catching her and even possibly 10-9.

I'm building exactas without her in them and that's how I'm approaching, with something like this:

$2 Exacta:  7-3-8-10-9 box for $10.  I'm not sure I don't even go more narrow and bet $2 7 over 8-10 for $4 and call it a day. 

I'll be watching the toteboard and the will pays and I will unemotionally bet this one for low risk, ok reward.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!