Handicapper's Corner: Dubai World Cup (Group 1)

Thundering into the Dubai World Cup

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

This year marks the twenty-fourth edition of the Meydan's flagship race, the Dubai World Cup.  It offers a rich $10,000,000 purse – the biggest purse on earth, once again, now that the Pegasus has split into dirt and turf races.

Originally run over the dirt at Nad Al Sheba, it was moved to the Tapeta when Meydan opened in 2010.  The very first World Cup in 1996 saw Cigar score the fourteenth of sixteen consecutive victories.  Cigar is not the only Hall of Fame inductee to have won the Dubai World Cup during his career: Silver Charm (1998), Invasor (2007), and Curlin (2008) have also emerged victorious in Dubai's biggest race.  All those horses won in its early days on the dirt.  During the Tapeta era, 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (2013) ranked among its winners.

In 2015, Meydan switched back from Tapeta to dirt.  Though Meydan local Prince Bishop  won the first over the new dirt surface, American horses won the next two.  In 2016, California Chrome joined Animal Kingdom and Silver Charm in the club of horses who have won both the Kentucky Derby and the Dubai World Cup.  The next year, Arrogate notched the final victory of his short, brilliant career in the race.  The home team returned to the winners’ circle in 2018, when Thunder Snow jumped to the lead and kept on going; he returns to defend his crown in this year’s edition.

Often, speed is where you want to be on the Meydan dirt during a big race day.  Thunder Snow used that to his advantage last year, seizing the early lead when North America came away poorly.  This year, however?  North America returns in even better form and hopes to break well.  And, one gate inside of him, there’s another speed horse who is in the shape of his life: Capezzano, who shot to the lead and held Thunder Snow at bay in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1) over this course and distance earlier this month.

Between the two speed horses, North America appeals a bit more.  His connections have freshened him since a pair of dominant victories in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1 (G2) and Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2).  That is probably a good thing, as he tends to fire well when freshened, and in recent years winners of the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 haven’t come back best in the Dubai World Cup.

But the presence of Capezzano means even with a good break, a spot near the front, and the possibly speed-favoring track, North America will have to come with his absolute best to get the job done.  It also means that a good horse with first run and a well-timed move could get the best run of things – giving Thunder Snow, second off the layoff, an excellent chance to become the first horse to win the Dubai World Cup twice.  Though he flattened out a bit late behind easy frontrunning winner Capezzano in Al Maktoum Round 3, he is the type to hit back harder second off a layoff. And, even though Thunder Snow is mired in the parking lont, he won this race from the parking lot last year, too.

It’s hard to love a deep closer for more than anything but a belated run for an underneath share.  However, if North America and Capezzano really lock up, an off-pace type may get a better run of things than usual.  Among them, it’s the ones who don’t have do drop all the way back (unlike the honest, classy, yet compromised Gunnevera) who appeal most to be threats late: think Yoshida and Seeking the Soul.  Neither needs an absolute collapse in front of them to make an impact – particularly a good thing in case either North America or Capezzano comes away badly.  Yoshida is preferred between the two because of his experience in shipping; he took a transatlantic journey last year and held his own at Royal Ascot, so this is something he has done before and come into well.  However, Seeking the Soul, consistent as he is through his American career, would be no surprise to see find the frame.

Selections:

#12 Thunder Snow (6/1)

#3 North America (5/2)

#10 Yoshida (8/1)

Longshot:  For the most part, this year’s Dubai World Cup looks quite the formful race; finding a credible longshot is a tough endeavor.  However, #9 New Trails (30/1) has some good outings through the Carnival.  Yes, it’s not great that last time out, he was caught late by Dolkong for show in Al Maktoum Round 3.

However?  If you’re willing to believe that race was intended to tighten the screws for World Cup Night, his form earlier in the carnival is strong.  In January he won a handicap as easily as he needs to in order to look a proper stakes horse, then followed that up with a late-gaining second behind lone speed North America in Al Maktoum Round 2.  With North America such a key contender today – and likely to get a tougher run of things than he did in Al Maktoum Round 2 – a horse who can run in North America’s ZIP code appeals, especially at the long odds New Trails will most certainly be.