Handicapper's Corner: Davona Dale Stakes (G2)

Is the Davona Dale a walk in the park?

By: Jeffrey Cobb, S. FL ThoroFan member

Ahh, no place like Gulfstream Park in February. Beats the heck out of Aqueduct anyhoo. The Davona Dale is the warm up to the Fountain of Youth stakes on the GP card. The race is for 3 year old fillies going for a mile around 1 turn on the dirt. 






The field is a short one, but let's see what there is to see.

In gate 1 is the winner of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile fillies, Jaywalk. Jaywalk is trained by John Servis and will be ridden by Joel Rosario. Jaywalk is also the winner of the G1 Frizette at Belmont Park as a warm up to the Breeder's Cup. Jaywalk has won 4 of 5 races. Three of the wins were by wide margins in wire to wire fashion, but, before you think she's a one trick pony, she has also won by stalking the leaders.

Jaywalk has not raced since November, but she won the Frizette after a month and a half layoff and finished a game 2^nd in her debut indicating that she can run fresh.

Finally, Jaywalk is 2/5 in the morning line. When morning line writers have an entry as such a strong favorite, they're trying to tell you something. Jaywalk's last 2 Brisnet speed figures as a two year old are much better than any of the other entrants as three year old.

Normally, I would give you the run down on the entire field, but I don't see the point of going through the exercise here.

One thing to remember is that big favorites don't always win. I remember Fort Larned's first race after his Breeder's Cup Classic at Gulfstream Park. A 1/5 favorite it seemed he couldn't lose. And, in fact, Fort Larned did cross the finish line first. Unfortunately, he left B.J. Hernandez at the starting gate.

Here's how I would play it, if you made me. I'd single Jaywalk in every possible horizontal bet. Then I'd watch the show pool and see if the bridge jumpers are into this race. If yes, bet everyone but Jaywalk to show and hope for a Fort Larned scenario.

Good luck!