Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Louisiana Derby

Looking for an Upset in Louisiana Derby

By: John DaSilva, PARX Linemaker

The Kentucky Derby prep season is now turning for home as the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby is scheduled to be run at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. The mile and an eighth race is the first event on the Derby trail that the winner receives 100 points and basically a guaranteed spot into the Kentucky Derby field. 

After the upset of the Bob Baffert duo of Game Winner and Improbable at Oaklawn Park last week in the two divisions of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Kentucky Derby favoritism seemingly could be up in the air. While Game Winner is still #1 in the NTRA Top 3-year-old poll this week, Louisiana Derby 6-5 morning line favorite War of Will trails by only 6 points, 342-336. A victory in the Louisiana Derby could propel the Mark Casse trainee to Kentucky Derby favoritism. Question is, can he get the job done. 

 

#1 Roiland (12-1)  (Successful Appeal – Anabranch by Congaree)

James Graham/Tom Amoss – 6 starts, 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third $119,660   

10 Derby Points

 Has a problem leaving the gate in a timely manner but took advantage of the speed collapsing in the Grade 2 Risen Star, getting up to be third at 69-1. Gets no favors with the rail draw because if he has trouble leaving the gate for the fifth consecutive start, he will be last going into the clubhouse turn. He will then have to deal with plenty of traffic and might get stuck inside for most of the race. Could be good enough to fatten up the exotics underneath but will probably need a speed duel and speed collapse if he is to defeat these.

#2 Lemniscate (15-1)  (Exchange Rate – Meet At Lola’s by Smoke Glacken)

Brian Hernandez Jr./Kenny McPeek – 3 starts, 1 win, 1 second, 0 thirds $41,500

0 Derby Points

Makes dirt route and stakes debut after breaking maiden last out at Gulfstream Park in first start on grass and at a route. McPeek knows how to get a horse to run successfully at a distance. Despite the bullet dirt work on 3/13, it might be asking too much to step up in class so high along with the surface change and shipping from Florida to Louisiana.

#3 Limonite (20-1)  (Lemon Drop Kid – Colina Verde by Know Heights)

Jose Ortiz/Steve Asmussen – 5 starts, 1 win, 1 second, 2 thirds $92,300   

2 Derby points

Bred to handle the distance and getting Jose Ortiz to ride is a plus. He did finish third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in the slop last year. This is his second start off the layoff and should improve off his fifth place finish in the Risen Star. With Eclipse Award winning jockey and trainer getting together along with a pedigree that can handle the distance, this is a horse that must be used if an upset happens.

#4 Sueno (8-1)  (Atreides – Class Above by Quiet American)

Corey Lanerie/Keith Desormeaux – 5 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third $190,440   

8 Derby Points

Desormeaux returns to his home state with this one after beaten ¾ of a length in the Grade 3 Southwest. Avoided the Baffert duo by skipping the Rebel to run in this spot. With Lanerie aboard, he should be mid pack while racing on the rail. Desormeaux always does a great job getting horses ready to run in spots like this. Not worried that Kent isn’t riding for his brother here as he is riding for him in the Sunland Derby with Diamond Blitz. He is a contender that probably makes his move when the favorite decides to go.

#5 By My Standards (12-1) (Goldencents – A Jealous Woman by Muqtarib)

Gabriel Saez/Bret Calhoun – 4 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third $53,710   

0 Derby Points

Impressive maiden winner takes major class jump and stretches out. Showed improved early speed in last two while stalking the pace. Saez had a bad looking spill in last race locally on Thursday but so far reports says he is fine. Would have to spread with many horses in order for me to use him

#6 War of Will (6-5)  (War Front – Visions of Clarity by Sadler’s Wells)

Tyler Gaffalione/Mark Casse – 7 starts, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third $491,569  

60 Derby Points

Favorite has been impressive since switching to dirt, winning all three starts since the surface switch. He was favored in all of those starts and it coincided with the jockey switch to Gaffalione, who took a step up in his riding career by leaving the comfort of South Florida and having a successful foray to Kentucky last fall. Should stalk the pace and the last race he showed that he can last and run successfully while rest of the early pace runners dropped out of it as the race went on in the Risen Star. Bravazo won this race last year but the Risen Star winner came back to win the Louisiana Derby in the previous three years. His spot in Kentucky Derby is virtually guaranteed so a loss wouldn’t be bad unless it was a horrendous looking performance or he gets hurt. He is a deserving favorite and will be tough to beat.

#7 Mr. Money (20-1)  (Goldencents – Plenty O’Toole by Tiznow)

Adam Bechizza/Bret Calhoun – 5 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds, 0 thirds $154,000   

2 Derby Points

Can be excused for his seasonal debut as the took up in the stretch and fell back to be seventh. Gets jock switch to meet leading rider in wins, Adam Bechizza. Looks to make a middle move in his recent starts but with the jock switch one wonders if the Biscuit (Adam’s nickname) will be patient, awaiting and make his move to the front later on in the race. At the price, he could be used if we are trying to beat the favorite.

#8 Country House (9-2)  (Lookin At Lucky – Quake Lake by War Chant)

Luis Saez/Bill Mott – 4 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds, 0 thirds $120,175   

20 Derby Points

Broke slowly but ran well to be second in the Risen Star in stakes debut and first start since breaking maiden. The least regarded of the Mott trio of Derby contenders might be the second horse from the barn to get into the Derby field with a third place or better finish here. Gate issues in last two is a worry and he might have too much work to do to get in the money. But Saez is a having an outstanding year and he might be ready to step up from being one of the top jocks in South Florida to being in demand for major stakes as one of the best jocks in the nation. 

#9 Bankit (20-1)  (Central Banker – Sister in Arms by Colonel John)

Irad Ortiz Jr./Steve Asmussen – 8 starts, 2 wins, 3 seconds, 0 thirds $345,625 

4 Derby Points

After a successful move to open company with a second place finish in the Springboard Mile at Remington, he was disappointing with off the board finishes at Oaklawn Park in the Smarty Jones and Southwest. Asmussen tries change of jock and track switch in hopes to get him back on track towards the Derby. Just don’t see him waking up and being a contender versus these.

#10 Spinoff (8-1)  (Hard Spun – Zaftig by Gone West)

John Velazque/Todd Pletcher 3 starts, 2 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third $60,000  

 0 Derby Points

Went to the sidelines after third in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. He came back on a Friday at Tampa Bay in an optional claimer last month. Velazquez gave up a day at Gulfstream to ride him in that race, where he was an easy 11 length winner in his route and seasonal debut. Velazquez and Pletcher made a similar move in an allowance in December 2017 with Vino Rosso. They obviously see great potential with him and if he moves up off that performance, he could be like Magnum Moon, who came back to win the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby after winning a mid week allowance at Tampa Bay last year

#11 Hog Creek Hustle (12-1)  )Overanalyze – Candy Fortune by Candy Ride)

Miguel Mena/Vickie Foley  6 starts, 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third $137,300  

9 Derby Points

Anther horse that made up plenty of ground in the Risen Star after being checked early, finishing fourth. Finished second in the Grade 3 Lecomte in previous start. Mena rides for the first time and if he can get him to get a clean trip while not racing wide, he could be an exotic factor.

The Plays

Most likely winner is War of Will but win bet would be cost prohibitive. So in hopes for an upset, take a shot with a $5 exacta key box of Spinoff with War of Will, Limonite, Sueno, Mr. Money and Country House. $50

Then $5 win and $5 show on Spinoff, Limonite, Sueno, Mr. Money and Country House because they most likely will be overlays and if a bridgejumper goes all in on War of Will and misses, the value will be great with your return.  $50

Total $100

John DaSilva was the lead handicapper for the New York Post from 1999 to 2013. He has also worked as a jockey agent and is presently the morning line oddsmaker for Parx.