All Signals Go for the Fountain of Youth Stakes
By: John Caro, S. FL Thorofan member
There is a lot talent and a bunch of speed from several and based on the running at the Holy Bull last month the setup could be the same. Caught at the line by a closer who can pace from mid pack in the last half of the race.
Do we have Holy Bull 2.0? Maybe.
I’ll list these in ML odds rank order today.
#7 Hidden Scroll (9-5) – Mott/Rosario – He’s been basking in
the Florida sunshine since December in the training spa at Payson Park. A
country setting were the horses are relaxed and well worked. He’s been getting
a steady diet of works here. Orb trained here before his triumphs. And it is
remarkable that Scroll went 5 furlongs in a minute in his last work and that
says a lot over their surface. He’s only had one race and it was impressive
front running effort for a 14 length victory over Gulfstream’s sealed sloppy
track in hand at the finish going shorter. Distance will not be a question
given his family on both sides. He’s a Speedball, a Stout colt and deserves his
odds but he’s not faced this level. He’ll have a lot of competition up front
which might set him up for failure. Rosario suspends his working vacation in
Southern California to ride and although Mott doesn’t send a lot of his
trainees forward toward the Triple Crown he’s a Hall of Fame trainer and knows
his craft. Is Hidden Scroll the winner? I think he’ll be caught. Likely in the
money.
#5 Vekoma (7/2) – Weaver/Franco – He’s not raced
since his win in the Nashua going a one turn mile with a short field. Good
motion after bobbling at the start through quick fractions while tracking the
leader into the turn then smooth to the finish with a best last speed. V is two
for two and is out with Lasix for the first time. His works say he’s ready and
his Candy Ride heritage says he will go the distance. He lacks two turn experience
but he has a hot jockey up and he knows how to work out a trip. I like this guy
a lot but have my reservations about a win for him today. I want to see how he
looks at the track on race day and his demeanor. Another ITM runner.
#6 Signalman (9/2) – McPeek/Hernandez B. Jr. – I’ve had
the pleasure of seeing this one up close and personal while he visited Payson
Park for a while. Impressively large, stalwart looking athlete and kinda likes
to profile. This young man is ITM five of his five races including two Grade
I’s earning his team 14 times their initial investment. The thing I like best
is his ability to be in the back, in the middle and get home in time to make
money. He’s versatile. I read recently that he has not reached his full
ability. I think he ranks as well as any in this field. I’ll be using him on
top and second in a trifecta.
#1 Code of Honor (6-1) – McGaughey/Velasquez – Another
training a Payson with a great work tab. The last two starts have not garnered
a win after trouble at the start, stumbled/bumped, in smaller, weaker fields
going shorter. Gotta love the
connections and if he gets away well and stays out of trouble he might show
better with his early pace near the rail though his pace at the finish has not
been impressive if they all go fast. Likely a third or forth if he can use his
energy and stay. Underneath.
#4 Bourbon War (10-1) – Henning/Ortiz, I Jr.* - His family
has all the capacity to go long and he proved his ability when closing from off
the pace to win by 2+. What we have here is a fella that is proven at the
distance, closes into a good pace with the highest late pace in the field,
ridden by the Hottest Jockey on the Florida planet* in a field of speedballs
and has great odds. What to do? He goes near the top despite his power rating
as 6th. He’s a contender and I’ll use him high on the ticket.
#8 Global Campaign (10-1) – Hough/Saez – This undefeated colt
has family lines that anyone would want for a distance. He’s two for two at Gulfstream
through moderate fractions and gets his steady jockey who often surprises a
field with a change is pace tactics. He has not seen a field this big, has not
seen graded stakes company, he’s returning off short rest compared to others
but, he must be in great shape given his works. Or is that the owners? The
connections here are great and I suspect they know what they expect. I think
he’s played under others.
#2 Epic Dreamer (20-1) – Breen/Gaffalione – Another
speedball as seen in the Holy Bull he can set a wicked pace through a mile. His
win came at Belmont on the lead in a short field. He gets a new jockey who
knows this track well and how to pace. The question is if he doesn’t get on the
lead will he have any interest in closing? He hasn’t shown it and that’s
concerning. He did show up forth in his last and I suspect he will do about the
same this go around. Under.
#9 Everfast (20-1) – Romans/Landeros – My last writing
about him before the Holy Bull was unkind as I said his name didn’t march his
performance. And in fact he did not show squat since his maiden win until the
Holy Bull. Landeros must have said something special at some point because if
you watch that race he took him near the rail tracked well behind Epic Dreamer
and Maximum Mischief, then opened up the rail letting McPeek’s Wallbanger
through as they nearly touched and Landeros (undeterred and determined) moved
sideways while gaining to finish second at 128-1 by a neck. Holy Sh.. sorry,
Holy Bull. Ya gotta love it! Is he a contender here? Gosh I can’t leave him off
the ticket after his last.
#11 Union Destiny (30-1) – Avila/Reyes – Interesting colt.
Union Rags with a mom that could run from here to Kentucky. Hasn’t been seen at
the track since early December but has worked eight time since with two 6
furlong works. Showed a lot of early speed in the Smooth Air Stakes. The
trainer has a 29% win and 71% ITM stat for 45-90 days away. Is this the
ultimate long shot? Well he shot a 99 Bris speed and given his early pace
that’s pretty good for a fella that did that after a four month break. Yes,
he’s worthy of a look at a price. Some would say that Reyes can’t win against
the best in the country but the truth is, if you watch Gulfstream as I do, he
can and does ride well knows how to close a horse given a pace and often at a
big price.
#10 Frosted Grace (30-1) – Ritvo/Gonzales, J. – He’s only had
one route race that saw a short field and came close to winning. Nice pace but
his breeding says he’s a miler/sprinter and I hope him the best in that
endeavor. Not on my radar.
#3 Gladiator King (50-1) – Mejia/Solorzano – This guy took
more than a minute to load after sticking his nose into the gate and nearly got
the assistant starter three times in the Holy Bull. Good thing the loaders were
young. I’d like to say something kind about this colt and I will. His successes
have been on the lawn and in the slop. He should stick with that and so should
his connections. Nope.
So I see
another hotly contested pace that someone is either going to last their way
though it or be caught in the last 100 yards (or 25 feet). I expect Hernandez
to make a closing move al ah Harvey Wallbanger in the Holy Bull.
Handigambling for $100
$1 Exacta – 4, 5, 6 with 4, 5, 6, 7,
8, 2, 9, 11 = $21
$1 Trifecta – 4, 5, 6 with 4, 6, 7, 5,
9 with 4, 6, 7, 5, 9, 8, 11 = $60
Longshot bet for the small bettor – $1
Exacta Box 4, 5, 6, 9, 11 = $20
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