Handicapper's Corner: Flower Bowl Invitational (G1)

Six Fillies  Vie in 2016 Flower Bowl 

Michael Amo,  Chairman of ThoroFan

The Flower Bowl Invitational (GI) with its small field could be one of the most exciting races on the Saturday Belmont Park card. The French sensation, Sea Calisi, who stormed home in the Beverly D (GI) at Arlington Park has everyone talking about her Breeders’ Cup debut in the Filly and Mare Turf.  
 
Beverly D. Stakes

Yet as with Flintshire in the Joe Hirsch she doesn’t need to win; a good performance would be an acceptable prep for the Breeders’ Cup. Lady Eli who returned to the races in Saratoga after more than a year off showed in the Ballston Spa that she is ready for the big leagues, again. 

 Ballston Spa Stakes  

Interesting both are trained by Chad Brown. Yet the rest of the field must be respected. Here is the field: 

1.   Ame Bleue (GB) (Dubawi (IRE) makes her USA debut for trainer Abdre Fabre. Distance should not be a problem; however her best running has come while running “right-hand”. She will have to adapt to the left going. Yet, her second in the Darley Prix Jean Romanet (GI) announces she must be considered a serious contender. 

2. Strike Charmer (Smart Strike) was a surprise longshot winner of Ballston Spa Stakes (GII) in Saratoga over Lady Eli and Sentiero Italia. She set the stakes record with that win. Positive jockey move to Castellano will help at this level, but not likely enough to win. 

 3. Itsonlyactingdad (Giant’s Causeway) likes Belmont track when finishing second last year (behind Lady Eli) in a grade one race and this year in an allowance race. Switch to Velazquez for Pletcher may have a message. 

4. Sentiero Italia (Medaglia d’Oro) had solid performances in Saratoga and the 2 for 3 at Belmont suggests a liking for the track. Distance seems to be her weakness. 

5. Lady Eli (Divine Pack) her undefeated record through July 2015 separated her from the rest. After recuperating she turned in a super performance in the Ballston Spa at Saratoga losing by ¾ of a length to long shot Strike Charmer. Brown was likely testing her and she passed. 

 6. Sea Calisi (Fr) (Youmzain-IRE) this group one experienced filly has shown her prowess in three starts on Lasix in USA. Her last win in the Beverly D as the heavy favorite among fourteen others earned her an automatic spot in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Winning here doesn’t offer more. Just needs one good outing in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup in four weeks. 

This is a solid field of fillies and mares looking for another Black-type win and a $300,000 prize. This is sufficient motivation for all. However, the real prize is the $1,200,000 prize for winning the $2,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. For all except Sea Calisi(Fr) a win gets them into that Breeders’ Cup race. Therefore, leaning to others to win is reasonable. With little speed form in the race, deep closers like Ame Bleue (GB), Itsonlyactingdad and Sea Calisi will be at a slight disadvantage. The tactical running style of Strike Charmer, Sentiero Italia and Lady Eli should set them up for an exciting finish. With Strike Charmer out-classed and Sentiero Italia distance-challenge this puts Lady Eli in the best position to win. 

 Picks: 
 1. Lady Eli (#5)
 2. Sea Calisi (Fr) (#6) 
 3. Ame Bleue (GB) (#1) 
4. Strike Charmer (#2) 

Handigamble: 
$10 Exacta Box (1,5,6) ---$60 $20
Exacta Key (5/1,6) ---$40

Good luck, but keep the day job.

Handicapper's Corner: Juddmonte Spinter Stakes (G1)

Chatting about the 2016 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (GI), three-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, post time 5:45pm EDT

This year marks the 61st running of the Spinster Stakes, a nine-furlong, weight-for-age test of filly and mare routers.  It has always been run on the main track: dirt, except for 2006-2013 when it was run on polytrack.  The race has been a rich source of filly and mare champions; twenty horses in the history of this race have won it on their way to a championship. Before the Breeders' Cup era, such stars included Doubledogdare (1956), Bowl of Flowers (1961), and Gallant Bloom (1969).  

During the Breeders' Cup era, the Spinster has produced four horses who went on to win the Distaff in the same year: Princess Rooney (1994), Sacahuista (1987), Bayakoa (1989, 1990), and Inside Information (1995).  Two horses have won the Spinster and the Distaff in different years: Paseana (1993 Spinster, 1992 Distaff) and Azeri (2004 Spinster, 2002 Distaff).

This year's Spinster, again sponsored by Juddmonte, offers a $500,000 purse as well as a Win And You're In berth to the Breeders' Cup Distaff for the winner.  The race drew a field of just five.  I’m a Chatterbox and Paid Up Subscriber formed the exacta of the GI Delaware Handicap earlier this year, and Engaginglee also achieved a grade I placing in the La Troienne earlier this year at Churchill Downs.  Miss Pink Diva and Genre, both trying Grade I company for the first time, complete the field.

Unfortunately, this year's edition of the Spinster is not the best betting race.  The race drew a field of five horses...and though I’m a Chatterbox will likely go off the heavy favourite, she deserves it, and she has proven everything she needs to prove in order to be the goods here.  A five-horse field can be a bit unpredictable.  Speed can be good, and I’m a Chatterbox has it, but so do Genre and Miss Pink Diva.  It makes sense to look for a horse who has speed, but also ratability.  I’m a Chatterbox is not only the fastest horse in the field, but also has that running style.  She also has form at a mile and an eighth, and two exacta finishes in three tries at Keeneland.  Her only off-the-board finish in Lexington came in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (GI) last year; this field is nowhere near that level.  Her three bullets since the Personal Ensign suggests she is coming into this in good form, too.  In short -- opposing I’m a Chatterbox here just seems cute for cute's sake.  In multi-race bets, single her and move on.

Underneath, Genre and Paid Up Subscriber have the most appeal.  Genre already has a "second to I’m a Chatterbox" medal from the Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park earlier this year.  The Obeah was the same mile and an eighth distance as the Spinster.  Since then, she has started three times.  Though Genre has been facing a bit softer company than this, she has made good account of herself.  She won the Molly Pitcher (GIII) in the slop two back, and proved her stamina in winning the ten-furlong Lady Jacqueline last out.  Genre has been highly consistent in her career, finishing in the exacta in nine of her eleven starts.  And, her running style fits nicely, as she has speed, gameness, and a stalking gear.

Among the late runners, Paid Up Subscriber appeals a bit more than Engaginglee.  Paid Up Subscriber can sit up a bit closer to the pace, an advantage here.  Though Engaginglee did win in a short field last out, that came in the mud.  Engaginglee is a slop monster, and may not be quite as effective against these better horses on a dry track.  Whereas, Paid Up Subscriber drops here from a much tougher Grade I last out, and has shown herself to be adaptable enough to be effective in a short field.  Turning the tables on I’m a Chatterbox would be too much to ask, but given her class and speed, it would be a surprise to see Paid Up Subscriber miss the board.

Selections:

#3 I’m a Chatterbox

#5 Genre

#2 Paid Up Subscriber

 

Handicapper's Corner: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (GI)

2016 Hirsch Turf Classic - Flintshire's Race to Lose

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

 

At first glance it appears that the Turf Classic is an easy race to handicap. After seeing Flintshire (GB) out-class the fields of the Bowling Green and the Sword Dancer at Saratoga, what else might you think. 

Bowling Green:

Sword Dancer:

The four horse field has little hope of beating Flintshire (GB) this time, unless the intention of Flintshire(GB) is to get a last workout before the Breeders’ Cup and not expend too much energy. Then and only then MIGHT he be upset.

Here is the field:  

1. Ectot (GB) (Hurricane Run-Ire) is a five year old from Great Briton, who took an 8-1 record into the 2014 Prix De l’Arch de Triomphe (GI) only to finish 17^th behind Flintshire who finished second. Recent efforts in Saratoga allowance races on Lasix suggest these were preps for this race. 

2. Twilight Eclipse (Purim)is a solid 7-year-old horse but was only capable of getting as close as third to Flintshire (GB) in both Saratoga opportunities. Improving Beyers and ThoroGraph figures suggest he could upset. 

3. Money Multiplier (Lookin At Lucky) the youngster in the quartet at 4-years-old looked good in the Sword Dancer closing for the second spot by 1 ¾ lengths behind a “pulling away” Flintshire (GB). Jockey John Velazquez opts for him over Twilight Eclipse and Ectot may forecast his readiness. 

4.  Flintshire(GB) (Dansilli-GB) a 6-year-old receiving Lasix for the third time and has been giving his American competitors a turf clinic. Should continue. 


Flintshire should win, but will offer no value in the win pool. The best options are to find a nice longshot on the race preceding or the race following the Turf Classic to lock in a daily double (DD). A Pick 3 (P3) with Flintshire in the center of those two races might be of value. When such an odds-on-favorite is in a race, horizontal plays allows for better payoffs if undervalued horse(s) win the attached leg(s) of the wager.

However, if this is only a workout for Flintshire (GB) or the effect of Lasix is not as dominant (4^th time using it), then he may vulnerable. As a saver using Flintshire (GB) under the other three in exactas may work. Even a small bet will be rewarding. 

Here is my Handigamble play:

·         Daily Doubles

Ø  $5 DD( 5^th/6^th  races)--7/4  = $5

Ø  $10 DD(6^th /7^th races)--4/4,6,7 =$30

·         Pick 3s

Ø  $4 P3(5^th/6^th/7^th)---4,5,6,7/4/4,6,7 =$48

·         Exactas

Ø  $5(6^th): 1,2,3/4 = $15

That leaves two dollars to tip the bartender when celebrating or drowning your sorrows.

Good luck, but keep the day job

Handicapper's Corner: Frontrunner Stakes (G1)

Klimt to Paint Winning Performance in FrontRunner

By: Reinier Macatangay, Lady and the Track

 For those interested in risqué artwork, Klimt is the name of a famous painter who had quite an imagination. The name also belongs to a promising 2-year-old colt named Klimt, who is on the rise for trainer Bob Baffert and owner Kaleem Shah. He starts in the 1 1/16-mile $300,000 FrontRunner Stakes (GI), on Saturday at Santa Anita Park.

Currently, Klimt owns three wins out of four career starts. The sole loss came while making his career debut, and a horse’s first career start is easily forgiven.

The son of Quality Road improved next time out, breaking his maiden in a short sprint by over five lengths after pressing the leader through the initial stages. He used the same tactics to win his next start in the Best Pal Stakes (GII) at Del Mar, although neither speed figure appears fast on paper.

The Best Pal featured slow opening fractions of 23 1/5 and 46 flat, which possibly influenced the final speed figure. When horses go slow early on, it is hard to make up the difference late, so the final time is more likely to end up slow. Speed figures are based on final time, whether on Daily Racing Form, BRIS or TimeformUS.

In any case, young horses improve as they go on, so taking their first few speed figures as their full potential realized is a poor way to handicap 2-year-old races. Essentially, 2-year-old horses are still babies.

Klimt went off at relatively modest odds of 5-2 in the Del Mar Futurity (GI) for his fourth start. Despite hailing from the Baffert barn with just one loss, bettors were not hyped over Klimt and made Straight Fire the favorite instead.

Supporters were rewarded though when Klimt stalked a swift pace set by Straight Fire and eventually reeled him in after the turn. Klimt displayed an ability to reach a new level at Del Mar, and might only get better.

Of course, Klimt is the “boring” choice, so bettors might want to look elsewhere for value in this field of promising horses. Starting from the rail, Gormley broke his maiden by over four lengths and could step up in his second career start. The bottom half of Gormley’s pedigree is turf orientated, but he ran fine on dirt.

Next to Gormley, Plum Dandy makes his third career start, and ran great breaking his maiden locally in a one-mile race after dueling from the inside. The speed figure makes little difference after only two starts.

Plum Dandy lost his career debut by 24 lengths to Straight Fire at Del Mar, but this only proves the point of first races working as a learning experience for horses. The stretch out to a route distance also helped.

Down the list in post four, Midnight Pleasure makes his third start as well, and he pressed Straight Fire through the first quarter of the Del Mar Futurity, only to slowly fade. Trainer Shelbe Ruis fares well with 2-year-old horses, and it would be unwise to discount the notion he could move forward enough to contend in this spot.

In post five, Straight Fire will certainly attract a ton of wagering support, if only because media personality Jim Rome’s Jungle Racing owns him in partnership with other groups. This horse set a quick pace and faded in the Futurity. To win here, the jockey may want to use more patience by sitting off the flank of the pacesetter.

Jockey Kent Desormeaux loses the ride on Straight Fire to Flavien Prat, and rides the hopeless Vibe instead.

Overall, Klimt holds enough positives to stay on board. Sure, it does not require a lot of thinking to choose Klimt, but not every race out there offers a clever choice. The horses described above have a chance, but Klimt should be able to handle two turns effectively and take home the FrontRunner for Baffert and Shah.

Handigambling:

$35 Exacta - Klimt / Gormley
$35 Exacta - Klimt / Midnight Pleasure

$20 Exacta - Klimt / Straight Fire

$10 Exacta - Klimt / Plum Dandy