Handicappers Corner: CashCall Futurity (G1)

Easy Money in the CashCall Futurity

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

The CashCall Futurity is the last Grade One race of the year held for two-year-old colts, and is a 2018 Kentucky Derby qualifier.  Since the race’s inception in 1981, 16 colts who hit the board in the Futurity have also run in the money in at least one of the Triple Crown races.  Six won the Kentucky Derby and three each the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.  2014’s Los Futurity hero Dortmund finished third in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

In previous years, the Los Alamitos Futurity drew very strong fields. The late, great Shared Belief kept his win streak intact in ’13, and 2014 Dortmund rallied for an edge of your seat performance. 

Brilliance is the name of the game for this year’s select field of five contenders. Four have won a race by three or more lengths. The fourth, Solomini, was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Easy Money

The well-regarded McKinzie galloped to a 5 1/2 debut victory at Santa Anita, getting his final quarter in 24.62 and his last furlong in 12.84. His final time for seven furlongs was 1:22.70. He showed plenty of ability in his final breeze and looked good, taking aim at a rival and closing ground. He appeared ready to take another step forward.

Could Cash In

Runaway Ghost has done just that in his last two starts, beating rivals by a combined 9 1/4 lengths. The son of Ghostzapper has speed and isn’t afraid to use it, but he’ll have to navigate an extra 2 1/2 furlongs.

Solomini is the class of the field, with a major caveat. The lightly raced son of Curlin is still figuring things out. During his races and breezes, he’s getting by on natural talent but doesn’t show the inclination to pass other horses. He was out-worked in his final two breezes by two unraced stablemates.

Speculators

Instilled Regard captured his third start by 4 1/4 lengths at Santa Anita, but the son of Arch traveled 1 1/16 miles in a pokey 1:45.76, getting his final quarter in 25.31, and his final 1/16 in 6.44. Instilled Regard has breezed strongly, but regular jock Mike Smith, who piloted the colt in all three starts, sticks with McKinzie.

For Him won a $50K maiden claimer at a mile over the Del Mar dirt in his third start. He followed up with a fourth-place finish in the Zuma Beach Stakes over the Santa Anita turf. The son of hot new sire Violence has shown the ability to lead or press the pace, but his late pace speed figures are poor. He recorded three sharp pre-race three-furlong breezes, but the distance and competition may prove too much.

Selections

Unless the post-time longshot surprises, the payouts won’t be worth the bet.

#5 MCKINZIE (6-5)

#4 RUNAWAY GHOST (8-1)

#3 SOLOMINI (7-5)

 

Handicapper's Corner: Frontrunner Stakes (G1)

Klimt to Paint Winning Performance in FrontRunner

By: Reinier Macatangay, Lady and the Track

 For those interested in risqué artwork, Klimt is the name of a famous painter who had quite an imagination. The name also belongs to a promising 2-year-old colt named Klimt, who is on the rise for trainer Bob Baffert and owner Kaleem Shah. He starts in the 1 1/16-mile $300,000 FrontRunner Stakes (GI), on Saturday at Santa Anita Park.

Currently, Klimt owns three wins out of four career starts. The sole loss came while making his career debut, and a horse’s first career start is easily forgiven.

The son of Quality Road improved next time out, breaking his maiden in a short sprint by over five lengths after pressing the leader through the initial stages. He used the same tactics to win his next start in the Best Pal Stakes (GII) at Del Mar, although neither speed figure appears fast on paper.

The Best Pal featured slow opening fractions of 23 1/5 and 46 flat, which possibly influenced the final speed figure. When horses go slow early on, it is hard to make up the difference late, so the final time is more likely to end up slow. Speed figures are based on final time, whether on Daily Racing Form, BRIS or TimeformUS.

In any case, young horses improve as they go on, so taking their first few speed figures as their full potential realized is a poor way to handicap 2-year-old races. Essentially, 2-year-old horses are still babies.

Klimt went off at relatively modest odds of 5-2 in the Del Mar Futurity (GI) for his fourth start. Despite hailing from the Baffert barn with just one loss, bettors were not hyped over Klimt and made Straight Fire the favorite instead.

Supporters were rewarded though when Klimt stalked a swift pace set by Straight Fire and eventually reeled him in after the turn. Klimt displayed an ability to reach a new level at Del Mar, and might only get better.

Of course, Klimt is the “boring” choice, so bettors might want to look elsewhere for value in this field of promising horses. Starting from the rail, Gormley broke his maiden by over four lengths and could step up in his second career start. The bottom half of Gormley’s pedigree is turf orientated, but he ran fine on dirt.

Next to Gormley, Plum Dandy makes his third career start, and ran great breaking his maiden locally in a one-mile race after dueling from the inside. The speed figure makes little difference after only two starts.

Plum Dandy lost his career debut by 24 lengths to Straight Fire at Del Mar, but this only proves the point of first races working as a learning experience for horses. The stretch out to a route distance also helped.

Down the list in post four, Midnight Pleasure makes his third start as well, and he pressed Straight Fire through the first quarter of the Del Mar Futurity, only to slowly fade. Trainer Shelbe Ruis fares well with 2-year-old horses, and it would be unwise to discount the notion he could move forward enough to contend in this spot.

In post five, Straight Fire will certainly attract a ton of wagering support, if only because media personality Jim Rome’s Jungle Racing owns him in partnership with other groups. This horse set a quick pace and faded in the Futurity. To win here, the jockey may want to use more patience by sitting off the flank of the pacesetter.

Jockey Kent Desormeaux loses the ride on Straight Fire to Flavien Prat, and rides the hopeless Vibe instead.

Overall, Klimt holds enough positives to stay on board. Sure, it does not require a lot of thinking to choose Klimt, but not every race out there offers a clever choice. The horses described above have a chance, but Klimt should be able to handle two turns effectively and take home the FrontRunner for Baffert and Shah.

Handigambling:

$35 Exacta - Klimt / Gormley
$35 Exacta - Klimt / Midnight Pleasure

$20 Exacta - Klimt / Straight Fire

$10 Exacta - Klimt / Plum Dandy