It is my honor to handicap this year’s Cigar Mile Handicap
(G2). I remember vividly watching him stand majestically at the rail, readying
for his morning workouts at Saratoga Racecourse. It brought chills to my neck
and back.
On the dirt, he only ran out of the money one time,
accumulating 18 wins in 22 starts on that surface. He won the Breeders’ Cup
Classic in 1995 and was named Horse of the Year in both 1995 and 1996.
From age 4 until his retirement, Hall of Fame Bill Mott
trained him. In the early races, the combo of Cigar/Mott/Bailey ruled, at least
that was the buzz.
This weekend a short field of seven horses honors him 21
years after he died. The weather at Aqueduct looks to be perfect for racing.
Here is the field.
1.Doc
Sullivan (Solomini) Is the lone NY bred horse in the race. Last
summer at Saratoga, he tried a Grade 1 race for the first time, finishing 4th
behind Book’em Danno, a head behind a hard-closing Crazy Mason, who he faces in
this race. Could surprise
2.Mika
(Catholic Boy) Tries graded company and Aqueduct for the first time. He is fast
and will challenge for the lead. He won his last by 14 lengths in an 8.5
furlong allowance race. Has stamina to be running late.
3.Pentathlon
(Spreightstown) Is a home bred by Phipps Stable. Working a bullet for this
race. New to graded races with a win in an open claimer at Aqueduct. Doesn’t
seem fast enough to challenge others in the race. Maybe in deep exotics.
4.Crazy
Mason (Coal Front) Working well for this race. Had trouble after
hitting the gate in the Forego this year at Saratoga. May like a little
shorter race, but fits here.
5.Brazenly
(Grazen) Johnny Velaquez replaces Irad Ortiz, who stays on
Crazy Mason. Recent Beyer figures aren’t as strong as others. Could be
closing for a share.
6.Phileas
Fogg (Astern-Aus) Seems to be the fastest and the one to catch.
Does well at Aqueduct. Showed his strength with a 3rd place in the
Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI) at Saratoga. He could win wire to wire.
7.Bishops
Bay (Uncle Mo) Has a 2-for-2 record at Aqueduct. Keeps jockey
Prat after a near wire-to-wire win in a grade three at Aqueduct. Bred by
Winstar Farm and sold at Keeneland auction for $1,300,000. His race to lose.
Analysis
The race looks like Phileas Fogg will be on or close to the
pace. In the stretch Bishops Bay, Doc Sullivan and Crazy Mason will challenge
him. Bishops Bay and Phileas Fogg will duel to the wire, with Bishops Bay
winning.
The $300,000 Hollywood Derby anchors a trio of stakes
scheduled for Del Mar’s turf festival.
The 1 1/8 mile Grade 1 event is one of the last graded
stakes on the lawn solely for 3-year-olds. Five of the nine entrants are East
Coast invaders, including Test Score, the only Grade 1 winner in the field.
The Hollywood Derby is featured as race 9 of 11 with a 3:30
M PT post time.
Let’s review the field.
Maaz (FR)comes off a runner-up effort in the Twilight Derby behind Test Score.
Maaz got an inside trip and didn’t have a smooth trip like Test Score. His only
in the money finishes were at Santa Anita, although he closed for fourth in the
La Jolla Handicap in August. The Mike McCarthy trainee gets another rail trip
and needs the pace to set up for him. Pass.
Friendly Confines set a comfortable one-length pace
in the restricted Let it Ride Stakes on October 30 but was edged out by Tempest
Volat. The Richard Baltas trainee has a win/lose form but now adds another
furlong against tougher competition. Pass.
Test Score has been solid all year, and his only off-the-board
finish was fourth place in the 1 5/16 mile Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs, which
was probably a little farther than he liked over the undulating turf. The
Graham Motion trainee is undefeated at 1 1/8 miles and is the class of the
field. Winner.
After a successful step into stakes competition, winning the
Gio Ponti Stakes, Salamis took on graded company in the Bryan Station
(G3). Although he was fifth, the Chad Brown trainee finished only two lengths
back in a three-way photo with Gakoso for third. That one won the Commonwealth
turf (G3)at Churchill last week. Exotics.
Kokosan is still a maiden but improved in his first
two-turn attempt on the lawn after sprinting on dirt. He was on the inside in
his last race and was simply outfinished by a half-length. He had tactical
speed last year at a mile on the lawn, so this John Sadler trainee is worth a longshot
exotics play.
Noble Confessor SCRATCHED.
Copp finally found the winner’s circle against a weak
field of turf maidens in his sixth start. Next, he had a troubled trip against
allowance-class runners in his last race. Copp hopped at the start, had traffic
issues and got stopped, so draw a line through that race. The Mike McCarthy
trainee’s Brisnet speed ratings are poor, and he appears to be up against it. Pass.
Tempest Volat likes Del Mar. Since moving to Leonard
Powell’s barn in July, Tempest Volat has won or placed in four starts at a mile,
including two starts here, as well as a runner-up finish. By Not This Time,
Tempest Volat is half to Grade 3 turf winner Delahaye, who was third in her
only start beyond 1 1/16 miles. He’s moving up in class and distance, but is
worth an exotics look.
Tom’s Magic has faced the best Canadian runners,
placing second in the King’s Plate on Polytrack and winning the 1 1/2 mile
Breeders’ Stakes on the lawn. Now he’s facing a tougher group. Outside of
Canada, Tom’s Magic won a pair of minor stakes and had an excuse in the Transylvania
(G3), where he had to steady at the start, and played bumper cars with rivals.
Other than the ninth-place finish in the Transylvania (G3), the Michael Stidham
trainee hasn’t finished off the board. He has tactical speed and is worth a
look for the exotics.
Analysis
Friendly Confines, Tempest Volat and Kokosan are most likely
to vie for the early pace.
Test Score stands head and withers above this group, so the
real race is for second through fourth.
Tom’s Magic is consistent, has a versatile running style and
has won from 1 1/16 to 1 1/2 miles.
Tempest Volat likes Del Mar, and Not This Time’s son could
get the distance if he can settle off the pace.
Lone Speed,
Big Edge: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Preview
Hello racing
fans, even though the Breeders’ Cup is now in the rear-view mirror, there’s
still plenty of top-tier racing action happening around the country.
This week, our
ThoroFan spotlight shifts to Churchill Downs for the 20th running of the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes,
a $300,000
event for three-year-olds traveling a mile
and a sixteenth on the turf.
The field is deep and competitive, featuring
several stakes winners and
stakes-placed runners. With 11 horses entered, this edition
promises plenty of intrigue under the Twin Spires.
Post time is scheduled
for 5:25 p.m. E.T.
WIN CONTENDERS:
Mansetti– Lone speed horse in the field who projects to control
the race from the front. Synthetic form typically transfers well to turf, so
the surface switch is only a mild concern.
Outrunner – Early/presser with strong tactical
speed. Should sit right behind leader and get first run.
Troubleshooting – Forward-placed presser who finishes
with consistency.
EXOTICS
USE:
Simulate – Mid-pack closer with a steady late
run; ideal underneath type. Giocoso – Presser who keeps grinding late; fits well in 3rd/4th. Plensa – Late closer who can clunk up when the pace is honest. Montador – Early/presser who can dig in for minor awards. Chapman’s Peak – Forward presser capable of hanging around for a slice.
TOSSES:
California
Burrito –
Early/presser but outclassed and too slow. Anegada – Presser lacking competitive figures. Flying Mohawk – Inconsistent closer without the needed punch.
RACE
ANALYSIS:
This year’s
Commonwealth Turf shapes up with Mansetti
as the lone true speed, but he’ll have some company; several horses with
early/presser styles will apply steady pressure, creating an honest pace.
Outrunner sits in the prime pressing position,
while Troubleshooting tracks just off the first wave, saving ground.
This forward pressure sets up opportunities for the midpack and late runners to
make their moves turning for home.
Down the
stretch, Mansetti’s speed may carry him a long way, Outrunner gets first run
and Troubleshooting grinds in, with the closers trying to sweep into the
exotics late.
With a field dominated by early pressers, Mansetti’s
lone-speed profile gives him a clear tactical advantage, while Outrunner
sits perfectly placed to strike. Troubleshooting keeps himself in the
race from the start and finishes reliably, and the midpack/later types round
out the deep exotics.
The wagering strategy reflects the true pace shape and uses
all relevant exotics horses in the 3rd/4th positions where they belong.
TOP THREE
SELECTIONS:
🥇
WIN – Mansetti 🥈 PLACE – Outrunner 🥉 SHOW – Troubleshooting
WAGERING STRATEGY:
WIN BETS —
$30
$20 WIN – Mansetti
$10
WIN – Outrunner (Win
saver; his pressing trip gives him the best chance to turn the tables if
Mansetti falters.)
The Grade 3 Pebbles on the turf at 1 mile for 3-year-old
fillies with a $175,000 purse this Sunday at Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, NY,
has a small but competitive field of six that should make for good betting
opportunities. Carded as the third of nine races, post time is 1:10 PM ET.
Here is who we like:
Peak Hype (2-1) Trained by Chad Brown with Ricardo
Santana Jr., the Jockey, this lightly raced filly has 2 wins out of 4 starts,
all as a 3-year-old. She comes off a win at Aqueduct last time out at a mile
and 1/16th and a high speed rating.
Peak Hype is a stalker type and is cutting back
in distance for her fifth lifetime start. She will be taking a step up in
class, running her first Graded Stake race, but we think she will be up to the
challenge. She comes in well rested with 43 days since last outing. Chad Brown
is very good at placing his turf horses in the right place, and we think she
fits in here.
Paradise City (4-1) trained by Joseph Saffie Jr. with
Manny Franco aboard has tons of experience with 11 starts; 4 of those races in
Graded Stakes, including last time out on this same track (Aqueduct) at 1 1/8th
finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes. In that race, she was first
at every call before fading the last 1/8th.
The cut back to a mile fits her here,
and she has the speed figures to compete. Comes off a sharp 3-furlong workout
last week. Watch her odds; if she stays at 4.1 or floats higher, run to the
windows.
It Ain’t Two (12-1). This Mott Riley-trained filly with Johnny Velazquez on board and owned by Resolute Racing is the most
experienced in the field with 19 overall starts, including 13 as a 2-year-old
running in Europe.
This year, she has run 5 of her 6 races at 6 ½ furlongs or
less, with only one start at a mile. That was a third-place finish, where she
led into the stretch before just getting beaten for the placing.
There is a key
jockey change here, with Johnny Velazquez taking over for Eric Cancel. This
filly is fast and an early pace setter, and who better than Johnny V to figure
out how to get this filly home at a mile distance. Don’t know if the odds will
stay there but love this longshot at 12-1.
Analysis
This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be
pretty fast with good early pace, and your only real stalker being Peak Hype.
We think front-runners It Ain’t Two (12-1) and Correto
(6-1) lead the pace with Peak Hype and Paradise City right
behind them.
From there it’s a stretch duel where we see It Ain’t Two
and Peak Hype together at the wire.
We hope to hit a Trifecta and then an Exacta, boxing our 3
highlighted horses with a win bet on It Ain’t Two.
As always, watch the horses in the paddock and the odds as
Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.
Bets: $100 Budget
$5 Trifecta Box: Peak Hype, Paradise City, It Ain’t Two
(total bet $30)
$10 Exacta Box: Peak Hype, Paradise City, It Ain’t Two
(total bet $60)
Welcome Friends to the ThoroFan Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.
"Specialize" is not how I feel this week, as I had Ethical Diamond at something like 3% chance to win the Breeders' Cup Turf.
I'd love to tell you how I thought highly of him and he was my wise guy pick, yada, yada, yada, but no.
I don't think I would have picked that horse, considering the field he was in, to finish in my exacta unless I boxed the whole field. Beware the handicapper and bet constructor who can't admit he was wrong. I'm going to diagnose both my handicap, pre race analysis and the video in a longer post tomorrow, just because I like pain and I also like to try to learn. The only sign was improving Timeforms, but in that field, at his post draw, I still don't see it. Anyways, I'll stop grumbling.
Turf racing is over for the year. Yes I know there are some races, but for all legitimate purposes, it's done. When you like turf racing, and you like older horses, this time of the year is slow and slim pickings, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me (they didn't read my Breeders' Cup debacle....shhh, or they won't invite me again) handicap the River City at Churchill Downs, so that is the mission.
It's not a terrible field. This time of year you get older horses possibly taking one last run before retirement or 4 YOs who are building on their improvements, with very little high end class, or graded stakes wins, to show for it.
Conversely, not a lot of video I think worth looking at for this race. Interestingly, so much of this field is early speed, and not a lot of success in the field at the distance, with only five (5) 1 and 1/8 Mile wins combined.
Before I go to far, I'd be tone death to not mention that Louisville is having a terrible week following the airplane crash that left at least 13 dead, with 9 or more missing. Say a prayer for the area as they continue to heal and bury the dead. Prayer, regardless of your beliefs, helps, and never lose sight of the fact that as humans, we are all interconnected.
The weather should be mostly dry after some rain on Friday. Keep an eye on turf conditions, as this is the last race on the card tomorrow at almost 6 PM and two other races, non graded stakes, are on the card. Today is listed as firm with rail at 36 feet, it's max position.
Let's Get After This:
Exacta History: Exacta In The Money (ITM) > 60% in BOLD
Visualization of Early and Late US Timeform Pace: Three true late speed, a few tactical, albeit slow mid runners and a bunch of very early speed.
I set Par for this race as 75 Early and 105 Late
Tomlinson Number Analysis with Focus on Distance
8 Nov 2025 CD; The River City Handicap G3; 1 1/8 Miles on Turf
So, What to do with all that? If I'm being honest, I think I'm burned out on handicapping this year because I'm without a very strong opinion. Everyone can sometimes use a break, and post Breeders' Cup I generally shut it down. It doesn't help I uked all over myself in my annual Super Bowl, The Breeders' Cup Turf (can you tell I'm gripping?).
I'm going to value the late speed of Chasing the Crown/6: Loves Churchill, 6 for 6 in the exacta. Has a win 1/2 furlong shorter so I'm not holding the distance against him but its a wildcard he has to overcome. Not the best horse in the field, not the best trainer/jock combo, but I like all of it added together. My chalk.
I like Taking Candy/12 more than others, and I have the 5 YO son of Twirling Candy for Lael Stables as a win contender I like his early tactical speed and decent late turn of foot. Place in G2 two back and a G3 win four back.
I have a crowded group just below these two that I think are all legitimate exacta contenders.
Corruption/8 is an improving 4 YO who has just been building all 2025 after entering the year as a maiden. Acquitted himself well in 4th in The Manhattan in the deep G1 waters, same in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs.
Lagynos/9 doesn't win much, 3 wins in last 18 but 9 Place and Show in that time frame. $1.7 MM lifetime winner, won the $500K Tapit at Kentucky Downs by 5 lengths and ran back in Place 9 days later in a grade 3. Off since September 6, a break Asmussen wins 16% of the time on 485 tries. Dettori is up, winless in 5 CD starts over past year.
Epic Ride/2 is a $1.9 MM career winner at 4 YO and a 2024 Kentucky Derby entrant before going to turf in June of 2025. 1 turf win in 4 tries and today the longest stretch out beyond 8 furlongs since the Kentucky Derby. Big early speed. Quality horse, no doubt. More questions for me than answers.
Encino/4 is a Brad Cox, gaudy stats Brad,(24% Graded Stakes Winner, 22% Turf, 27% Synth to Turf, 28% Routes, 26% winner at CD with I. Ortiz, Up)with another improving 4 YO making only his 3rd turf start. First time at CD, First time at distance on turf, very classy son of Nyquist for Godolphin. More questions than answers as well.
Mercante/7 had a very good start to season in 2025, winning 3 of first 5 races before going backward a bit. Oddly placed as 60-1 shot at Keeneland in Turf Mile last month, cutting back 4 furlongs from Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs. Has a Place Finish/101 Beyer at this track and distance in May in a Grade 1 and followed that up with a G3 with 1/2 furlong shorter at CD. Not sure what to make of him.
If I boxed 6-12-8-9-4-2 (Skipping Mercante) for $2, that's a $60 bet. Too pricy and lousy risk/reward. This improves somewhat dropping the 4-2 from Win Position, a $2 bet for $24. That's my base bet.
If you are playing after the Breeders' Cup, I tip my hat to you, a real horseplayer.
