Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

 

Lone Speed, Big Edge: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Picks 'N Plays 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Lone Speed, Big Edge: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Preview

Hello racing fans, even though the Breeders’ Cup is now in the rear-view mirror, there’s still plenty of top-tier racing action happening around the country.

This week, our ThoroFan spotlight shifts to Churchill Downs for the 20th running of the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes, a $300,000 event for three-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.

The field is deep and competitive, featuring several stakes winners and stakes-placed runners. With 11 horses entered, this edition promises plenty of intrigue under the Twin Spires.

Post time is scheduled for 5:25 p.m. E.T. 

WIN CONTENDERS:

Mansetti – Lone speed horse in the field who projects to control the race from the front. Synthetic form typically transfers well to turf, so the surface switch is only a mild concern.

Outrunner – Early/presser with strong tactical speed. Should sit right behind leader and get first run. 

Troubleshooting – Forward-placed presser who finishes with consistency.

EXOTICS USE:

Simulate – Mid-pack closer with a steady late run; ideal underneath type.
Giocoso – Presser who keeps grinding late; fits well in 3rd/4th.
Plensa – Late closer who can clunk up when the pace is honest.
Montador – Early/presser who can dig in for minor awards.
Chapman’s Peak – Forward presser capable of hanging around for a slice.

TOSSES:

California Burrito – Early/presser but outclassed and too slow.
Anegada – Presser lacking competitive figures.
Flying Mohawk – Inconsistent closer without the needed punch.

 

RACE ANALYSIS:

This year’s Commonwealth Turf shapes up with Mansetti as the lone true speed, but he’ll have some company; several horses with early/presser styles will apply steady pressure, creating an honest pace.

Outrunner sits in the prime pressing position, while Troubleshooting tracks just off the first wave, saving ground. This forward pressure sets up opportunities for the midpack and late runners to make their moves turning for home.

Down the stretch, Mansetti’s speed may carry him a long way, Outrunner gets first run and Troubleshooting grinds in, with the closers trying to sweep into the exotics late.

With a field dominated by early pressers, Mansetti’s lone-speed profile gives him a clear tactical advantage, while Outrunner sits perfectly placed to strike. Troubleshooting keeps himself in the race from the start and finishes reliably, and the midpack/later types round out the deep exotics.

The wagering strategy reflects the true pace shape and uses all relevant exotics horses in the 3rd/4th positions where they belong.

 

TOP THREE SELECTIONS:

🥇 WIN – Mansetti
🥈 PLACE – Outrunner
🥉 SHOW – Troubleshooting

WAGERING STRATEGY:

WIN BETS — $30

$20 WIN – Mansetti                                                                

$10 WIN – Outrunner (Win saver; his pressing trip gives him the best chance to turn the tables if Mansetti falters.)

 EXACTAS — $40

$15 EXACTA BOX: Mansetti and Outrunner

$10 EXACTA: Mansetti over Troubleshooting

 TRIFECTA — $1.00 Wheel ($10.00 Total)

1st: Mansetti
2nd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting
3rd: Simulate, Giocoso, Plensa, Montador, Chapman’s Peak

 SUPERFECTA — $.50 Wheel ($15.00) 

1st: Mansetti
2nd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting
3rd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting, Simulate, Giocoso, Plensa, Montador, Chapman’s Peak
4th: Giocoso, Plensa, Montador

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!   

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Pattison Canadian International (G1)

Canadian International a Global Affair

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

                   

A compact field of six runners representing the United States, Canada, Great Britain, France, Germany and Ireland converge Saturday in Toronto, Ontario for the Pattison Canadian International, the most-anticipated thoroughbred racing event of the Woodbine fall season. The Grade 1 showpiece for horses three years old and up encompassing the full 1 ½ miles on the gorgeous E.P. Taylor turf course carries a purse of $800,000.

Defending champion, Desert Encounter tops the list of turf specialists for the 82^nd edition. The David Simcock runner is seeking to be the first repeat winner of this race since Joshua Tree turned the trick in 2012-2013.

Post time is slated for 5:42 pm E.T.

Here is the field from the rail out.

1 - Ziyad (GB) - Maxime Guyon - Carlos Laffon-Parias – 1-1 - Bred in Great Britain, this French raced gelding has been pitted against some top competition since early June and exited with a win and two second-place finishes, narrowly missing a Group 1 win two back at St.Cloud. Owns a superb record at the distance, and if the course gets rain as expected on Saturday, he is one that will benefit from the soft ground.

2 - Pivoine (IRE) - Robert Hornby - Andrew Balding – 10 -1 - All but one of this Irish-bred runner’s races have been in England, with the lone exception being a start in the Arlington Million (G1) back in August where he finished fifth after a mild rally. His next race at Kempton can be excused as it came on the synthetic surface. Back on the turf he went for the Dubai Legacy Cup (G3) where he encountered significant traffic trouble, but still managed to run on for a second-place finish, one-length behind the winner who is also here. If you fancy that one, then this horse should merit your consideration too.

3 - Nessy - Chris Landeros - Ian Wilkes – 8 -1 The lone United States representative shipped north of the border last month and was a game second in the Northern Dancer (G1) over this course and distance. That event was his first attempt at the top level, and it was a huge performance from this six-year old, whose previous best effort was a Grade 3 win at Santa Anita last year. He’s on the improve and certainly has the pedigree for this race, as his full brother romped in the 2017 edition of this race.

4 - Desert Encounter (IRE) - Andrea Atzeni - David Simcock – 2-1 - The 2018 Canadian International winner has returned to the Woodbine turf for a chance to defend his title. The seven-year-old Irish-bred is riding a three-race winning streak. He enters this year’s edition in the same fashion as he did last season, by prepping in the Dubai Legacy Cup (G3). Has been consistent, not only this year, but throughout his career, sporting a record of 11-4-7 from 30 starts. Seems to be at his best from summertime onward, and he comes into this race in top form.

5 - Alounak (FR) - Clement Levoeuvre - Waldemar Hickst – 6-1 - French-bred runner has done practically all of his racing in Germany. He exits a narrow win by a head in a Group 3, the highest level he has attained. He didn’t threaten in a pair of Group 1 events over the summer, so questions remain as to whether he can make any type of impact, even in this small field.

6 - Pumpkin Rumble - Eurico Rosa Da Silva - Kevin Attard – 15 -1 – Eight-year old gelding is the local representative and tops the field in racing experience with 45 lifetime starts. Woodbine has been his home for the last two-and-a-half years after coming up from the U.S. after being claimed. Owner of 10 wins, split evenly between both countries with his latest coming in a restricted stake a few weeks ago on a road trip to Parx. Broke through in the graded ranks when scoring in the Valedictory stakes (G3) here last December. Faces quite the task here as hasn’t seen Grade 1 competition in two years.

ANALYSIS: At the time of this write-up, an 80% chance of rain is forecasted in the Toronto area on Saturday, which could leave the turf course less than firm, a determining factor which will bolster the chances of Ziyad, as he is highly proven on soft ground. He has good current form and an excellent record at the distance. He likes to be on the lead and in a race lacking speed, he can control the pace from his inside draw. Desert Encounter is rolling along with three consecutive wins. He is the lone G1 winner in the field and that award carries plenty of merit and must be respected. He too is proven at the distance, and it’s going to be tough to stop his winning momentum on good/firm turf.

WAGER: Either Ziyad or Desert Encounter should prevail. The two horses stand apart and are clearly superior and tower over the others on class, but the odds offered on each horse will be low. The tricky question is, which horse should be bet to win. If either?

Take the higher priced horse. Let the odds dictate your bet. In two-horse races, bet the overlays only, either to win or in exacta combinations.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.

Handicapper's Corner: Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

Commonwealth Stakes Feature Horses for Courses

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

A small field of seven three-year-old colts and geldings are set to enter the starting gate for the 1 1/16-mile Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday. 

Three entrants have previously competed over Churchill sod. Hot Springs is three for three, and Year of the Kitten won his only start. Zero Gravity placed in one of two starts.

Let’s review the contenders.

Horses for Courses

#7  HOT SPRINGS (2-1) has won three of six-lifetime starts, and all three victories were over the Churchill lawn. The son of Uncle Mo captured his last start, the 1 1/8-mile Jefferson Cup at Churchill, and is making his third start off the layoff for trainer Steve Asmussen.  Strong Win Contender.

#6  YEAR OF THE KITTEN (15-1) captured his debut over the Churchill lawn last year around this time with Corey Lanerie aboard. Since then, Year of the Kitten has only won a claiming race at Saratoga but placed in the Rushaway Stakes earlier this year. Lanerie hasn’t been aboard the son of Kitten’s Joy since the colt’s debut, but the two reunite here. Wild Longshot Play.

Class of the field

#4  MARCH TO THE ARCH (5-2) placed ahead of Hot Springs in the Saranac Stakes (G3) two starts back. Last time out, he just missed in a blanket finish in the Hill Prince (G2), finishing fourth, beaten a head and neck for third. The bay gelding cuts back in distance from his usual 1 1/8 miles but is capable of winning at shorter distances. Strong Win Contender.

Making up the exotics

#3  SNIPER KITTEN (7-2) was out of his league in the Secretariat Stakes two races ago and ran out of oats in the Caesar’s Stakes at Indiana last out. Mike Maker gave the colt a light break, and he’s ready to get back on course. His prior record says Sniper Kitten fits here, but he’ll need to step up his game to beat the top pair.

#1  RERIDE (4-1) won an allowance over soft turf last year but has been off the board in two subsequent turf starts. Career-wise, he’s been all over the board, from allowance races to graded stakes. He may find his niche as a sprinter-miler in restricted/listed stakes. Note that he’ll likely play catch me if you can from the rail spot, but may be hounded by Marzo.

#2  MARZO (12-1) showed nothing last year in two starts for the Pletcher barn. After being off for close to a year, Marzo surfaced in Ben Colebrook’s barn and has hit the board in two of three starts.  Marzo takes on stakes company for the first time, and this lightly raced colt may contest the lead.  So far, his speed figures are lower than the more experienced colts, but he has the most room for improvement.

#6  ZERO GRAVITY (8-1) took his sweet time finding his way to the winner’s circle, finally getting his picture taken in his seventh start. Since then, he’s finished second by a neck and just missed second place, beaten a head by Reride, in an off the turf allowance at Keeneland. Ehhh.

SELECTIONS

It doesn’t look like there will be surprises here, but that’s why they run.  Hot Springs loves the course and can get a good trip from the outside. Even if floated wide, he’s cutting back from 1 1/8 miles and is fit enough that it shouldn’t matter.

March to the Arch is the class of the field and has won over multiple tracks. He’ll sit back and make one run.

Marzo has the most upside, but he’ll likely contest the pace.

Sniper Kitten can sit anywhere and make a run & fits with these.

HANDIGAMBLING

Probably a chalky race, so you don’t want to bet $2 to get back $2.10. Exotics may be the best bet.

$10 exacta box: #7, #4, #3 = $60

$5 exacta box: #7, #4, #2 = $30

$10 for a mint julip

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Commonwealth Turf (G3)

Mr Cub Can Steal Commonwealth From Mr. Misunderstood

By: Reinier Macatangay, Thoughts on Racing, Life and More

Most handicappers will admit Mr. Misunderstood looks tough to defeat in the $100,000 Commonwealth S. (GIII) on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The expected favorite sports a 6 for 6 grass record, and faces a somewhat soft field in his bid to keep the streak going. Yet, the ML odds of 4/5 are hard to swallow.

 

Therefore, it is time to search for value in this 1 1/16-mile affair. It is a common scenario in a lot of races, but the value in this race comes from the horse with the favorable pace setup – Mr Cub. 

The son of Artie Schiller is 7-2-1-0 on paper, but a closer inspection reveals an interesting pattern. When Mr Cub is sent for the lead, he fires a decent race. When he attempts a closing bid from behind, he flops.

For example, look at the Oct. 16, Aug. 4 and Sept. 6 efforts. Mr Cub dueled for the lead in all three races, winning twice and losing the other one by half a length. In the loss at Ellis Park, he endured grueling fractions where the leaders went in 46 flat for the half and 1:09 3/5 for six furlongs at also a 1 1/16-mile distance.

Glance at the July 16 Ellis Park loss, where Mr Cub tried to close from nine lengths off the pace. He finished 11^th and seven lengths behind. Likewise, in the Nov. 17 race at Churchill, the gelding tried to close from five lengths off the pace in seventh and could do no better than fifth by a little more than four lengths.

This horse stinks with conservative tactics.

Observers might glance at Mr Cub’s disappointing Jefferson Cup effort though, where he faded to fifth after sparring through moderate fractions. The longer 1 1/8-mile distance possibly affected him in that one.

With this pattern in mind and a lack of true speed signed on to the Commonwealth, the connections must be thinking to let him roll again up front. He offers enough value at 6-1 and gets the top endorsement here.

As for Mr. Misunderstood, does anyone really need help from a public handicapper on this horse? Everyone understands 6 for 6. Furthermore, the horse is dominating his races by two or three lengths each time.

If there is any concern for Mr. Misunderstood, it is that his BRIS Speed Ratings (assuming speed figures for turf races are important), do not appear so dominant compared to the rest of the field. When a horse is 4-5 on paper like Mr. Misunderstood, every part of his form needs to be an overwhelming standout.

Finding an alternative to those two horses is difficult. Gorgeous Kitten might improve for the familiar team of trainer Michael Maker and the Ramseys if the colt reverts to more conservative tactics. If he tries to wing it on the lead like in his Ontario Derby (GIII) effort at Woodbine, he will cook both himself and Mr Cub.

The winner of the Ontario Derby, Tiz a Slam, could put in a decent run as well. Note how his fourth-place finish at Indiana Grand came in a one-mile race where the leaders went in 48 4/5 for the half. He had little chance from midpack. The son of Tiznow also managed a runner-up finish in the restricted Queen’s Plate.

Also, Giant Payday is not without a shot as well. He did defeat Mr Cub three races ago at Ellis Park, although the blistering fractions helped set up his run.

Parlor has been a disappointment, and My Bariley likes wet turf.

All of them will chase Mr Cub. Without Gorgeous Kitten to press or a change in tactics from the other contenders, Mr Cub can take the Commonwealth field all the way.

 
Handigambling ($100)

$30 Win – Mr Cub
$35 Exacta Box ($70 in all) – Mr Cub, Mr. Misunderstood