Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

 

Lone Speed, Big Edge: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Picks 'N Plays 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Lone Speed, Big Edge: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Preview

Hello racing fans, even though the Breeders’ Cup is now in the rear-view mirror, there’s still plenty of top-tier racing action happening around the country.

This week, our ThoroFan spotlight shifts to Churchill Downs for the 20th running of the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes, a $300,000 event for three-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.

The field is deep and competitive, featuring several stakes winners and stakes-placed runners. With 11 horses entered, this edition promises plenty of intrigue under the Twin Spires.

Post time is scheduled for 5:25 p.m. E.T. 

WIN CONTENDERS:

Mansetti – Lone speed horse in the field who projects to control the race from the front. Synthetic form typically transfers well to turf, so the surface switch is only a mild concern.

Outrunner – Early/presser with strong tactical speed. Should sit right behind leader and get first run. 

Troubleshooting – Forward-placed presser who finishes with consistency.

EXOTICS USE:

Simulate – Mid-pack closer with a steady late run; ideal underneath type.
Giocoso – Presser who keeps grinding late; fits well in 3rd/4th.
Plensa – Late closer who can clunk up when the pace is honest.
Montador – Early/presser who can dig in for minor awards.
Chapman’s Peak – Forward presser capable of hanging around for a slice.

TOSSES:

California Burrito – Early/presser but outclassed and too slow.
Anegada – Presser lacking competitive figures.
Flying Mohawk – Inconsistent closer without the needed punch.

 

RACE ANALYSIS:

This year’s Commonwealth Turf shapes up with Mansetti as the lone true speed, but he’ll have some company; several horses with early/presser styles will apply steady pressure, creating an honest pace.

Outrunner sits in the prime pressing position, while Troubleshooting tracks just off the first wave, saving ground. This forward pressure sets up opportunities for the midpack and late runners to make their moves turning for home.

Down the stretch, Mansetti’s speed may carry him a long way, Outrunner gets first run and Troubleshooting grinds in, with the closers trying to sweep into the exotics late.

With a field dominated by early pressers, Mansetti’s lone-speed profile gives him a clear tactical advantage, while Outrunner sits perfectly placed to strike. Troubleshooting keeps himself in the race from the start and finishes reliably, and the midpack/later types round out the deep exotics.

The wagering strategy reflects the true pace shape and uses all relevant exotics horses in the 3rd/4th positions where they belong.

 

TOP THREE SELECTIONS:

🥇 WIN – Mansetti
🥈 PLACE – Outrunner
🥉 SHOW – Troubleshooting

WAGERING STRATEGY:

WIN BETS — $30

$20 WIN – Mansetti                                                                

$10 WIN – Outrunner (Win saver; his pressing trip gives him the best chance to turn the tables if Mansetti falters.)

 EXACTAS — $40

$15 EXACTA BOX: Mansetti and Outrunner

$10 EXACTA: Mansetti over Troubleshooting

 TRIFECTA — $1.00 Wheel ($10.00 Total)

1st: Mansetti
2nd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting
3rd: Simulate, Giocoso, Plensa, Montador, Chapman’s Peak

 SUPERFECTA — $.50 Wheel ($15.00) 

1st: Mansetti
2nd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting
3rd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting, Simulate, Giocoso, Plensa, Montador, Chapman’s Peak
4th: Giocoso, Plensa, Montador

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!