Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Pebbles Stakes (G3)

 

  Longshot Appeal in Sunday’s Pebbles Stakes

By: Robert Marks  (X: @theyreinthegate)

The Grade 3 Pebbles on the turf at 1 mile for 3-year-old fillies with a $175,000 purse this Sunday at Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, NY, has a small but competitive field of six that should make for good betting opportunities. Carded as the third of nine races, post time is 1:10 PM ET.

 Here is who we like:

Peak Hype (2-1) Trained by Chad Brown with Ricardo Santana Jr., the Jockey, this lightly raced filly has 2 wins out of 4 starts, all as a 3-year-old. She comes off a win at Aqueduct last time out at a mile and 1/16th and a high speed rating. 

Peak Hype is a stalker type and is cutting back in distance for her fifth lifetime start. She will be taking a step up in class, running her first Graded Stake race, but we think she will be up to the challenge. She comes in well rested with 43 days since last outing. Chad Brown is very good at placing his turf horses in the right place, and we think she fits in here.

Paradise City (4-1) trained by Joseph Saffie Jr. with Manny Franco aboard has tons of experience with 11 starts; 4 of those races in Graded Stakes, including last time out on this same track (Aqueduct) at 1 1/8th finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes. In that race, she was first at every call before fading the last 1/8th. 

The cut back to a mile fits her here, and she has the speed figures to compete. Comes off a sharp 3-furlong workout last week. Watch her odds; if she stays at 4.1 or floats higher, run to the windows.

It Ain’t Two (12-1). This Mott Riley-trained filly with Johnny Velazquez on board and owned by Resolute Racing is the most experienced in the field with 19 overall starts, including 13 as a 2-year-old running in Europe. 

This year, she has run 5 of her 6 races at 6 ½ furlongs or less, with only one start at a mile. That was a third-place finish, where she led into the stretch before just getting beaten for the placing. 

There is a key jockey change here, with Johnny Velazquez taking over for Eric Cancel. This filly is fast and an early pace setter, and who better than Johnny V to figure out how to get this filly home at a mile distance. Don’t know if the odds will stay there but love this longshot at 12-1. 

Analysis 

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with good early pace, and your only real stalker being Peak Hype.

We think front-runners It Ain’t Two (12-1) and Correto (6-1) lead the pace with Peak Hype and Paradise City right behind them.

From there it’s a stretch duel where we see It Ain’t Two and Peak Hype together at the wire.

We hope to hit a Trifecta and then an Exacta, boxing our 3 highlighted horses with a win bet on It Ain’t Two.

As always, watch the horses in the paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 Budget

$5 Trifecta Box: Peak Hype, Paradise City, It Ain’t Two (total bet $30)

$10 Exacta Box: Peak Hype, Paradise City, It Ain’t Two (total bet $60)

$10 Win Bet: It Ain’t Two (Total bet: $10)