Handicapper's Corner: 2022 LeComte Stakes (G3)

 LeComte more than a two-horse race

By: Rowan Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The Kentucky Derby trail at Fair Grounds started earlier than usual this year, with the Gun Runner Stakes on December 26. It continues January 22 with the traditional beginning of the New Orleans spur: the Lecomte Stakes (G3).

The race takes its name from Lecomte: an equine star of the 1850s, a half-sister to Saratoga stakes namesake Prioress, and the only horse to defeat the great Lexington.  Though Lecomte was bred in Kentucky, he went to Louisiana as a yearling. He was named after his owner’s friend Ambrose Lecomte, a Louisiana landowner, and later gave a misspelled version of his name to the town of Lecompte, Louisiana.

The 2022 edition of the Lecomte Stakes drew a field of nine, who will compete for a $200,000 purse as well as Road to the Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1) for the top four finishers.

Though no Lecomte Stakes winner has yet gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, seven have won the Louisiana Derby, most recently International Star (2015).  The race has been a particularly live Preakness prep in recent years; in the last ten years, two of its winners have gone on to win Baltimore’s most important race: Oxbow (2013) and War of Will (2019). Last year’s winner, Midnight Bourbon, ran second in the Preakness as well.

The likely favorite in the 2022 Lecomte is #3 Pappacap, the class of the field. His versatility should suit him well, as there is quite a bit of early gas in this edition of the Lecomte, and Pappacap has been able to win either on or just off the pace. The question is when he will bounce back into that winning form, as he won his first two starts last year, but has not posed for the photographer since the Best Pal (G2) last August. However, he has been able to keep getting shares, as he was second behind Corniche in both the American Pharoah (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last autumn. Regular rider Joe Bravo returns to the saddle, and his trainer Mark Casse has gotten a solid enough beginning to the Fair Grounds meet to bode well for Pappacap.

#5 Epicenter is already a stakes winner over the course and distance, winning the Gun Runner Stakes authoritatively. Though he is one of several speed horses, he proved in both his maiden win and the Gun Runner that he can dispute the pace and keep going strongly, something Epicenter will have to prove again. The jockey assignment is a little strange, since on all form Epicenter appears to be the Steve Asmussen “A” entrant, but his last-out rider Brian Hernandez rides Presidential instead. However, Joel Rosario does come in to ride — and Rosario had the call on Epicenter’s maiden win, making the jockey assignment less of a concern than it would otherwise be.

The most interesting new face to the stakes level is #4 Trafalgar.  He has won twice in three starts, including a head victory in a N1X over this course and distance on December 2. Though it has been about a month and a half since that score, he won that race first off of a two-month layoff, proving that he can handle a bit of time off before a race, for a trainer (Al Stall) who has a strong record with those kinds of breaks. What makes Trafalgar most appealing is the versatility he has shown. Though his allowance win came from just off the pace, he was off slowly in his maiden win, settled toward the rear, and made a winning run. That proves Trafalgar does not need everything his own way, and can carve out a winning trip from wildly different shapes. He needs to move forward against these tougher horses, but is going the right way and has the upside to be the spoiler.

A short word about #6 Cyberknifeis appropriate. He is also a maiden winner over course and distance, and his connections (trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux) are strong at Fair Grounds. But, he will likely be overbet on that angle, and with the blinkers going back on, there is a good chance he will be one of too many speed horses, in a race where he ceded both that pace disadvantage and experience against classier horses.

 

Selections

#4 Trafalgar (5-1)

#3 Pappacap (8-5)

#5 Epicenter (9-5)

 

Longshot:  #8 Call Me Midnight makes his first start since a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as a 48/1 longshot. However, off the layoff, he does have several positive points for a big price. Though the Kentucky Jockey Club attempt was a disappointment, he has a good second-place effort in his other mile and a sixteenth race, a maiden special at Keeneland last October. That came with jockey James Graham in the irons; Graham, who is having a smart start to the Fair Grounds meet, returns for the Lecomte. And, with so many speed horses entered in the field, Call Me Midnight could work a good trip.

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Pasco Stakes

 Betting the Pasco Stakes no easy task

By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Tampa Bay Downs’ road to the Kentucky Derby starts in earnest this Saturday with the 7-furlong, $125k Pasco Stakes. Whether or not this event, carded as race 5, will produce a Classic runner remains to be seen. However, at this time of year, trainers like to throw horses against the proverbial wall to see if they go on the Derby trail, so it does offer an interesting handicapping exercise at a track I don’t often play. 

Let’s dive in and look at the field.

 

 

1.       Provocateur – (A. Gallardo; T. Pletcher) 3-1:  This good-looking bay son by Into Mischief hails from Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher for MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm. Each year Pletcher deploys part of his string up to Tampa to pick off these lucrative stakes and is usually well represented. Provocateur started long on the turf at Belmont in the late fall, which tells me that the barn thinks he is a distance horse. That day he didn’t show much run as the favorite but came back in a pair of sprints and looks to be coming around nicely. The way he polished off his maiden win over this track suggests he has plenty of upside. However, there is concern about him going from the outside stalking trip he had to a potentially pressing rail trip with other speed to his outside. WIN CONTENDER.

2.       Cyberviking – (C. Sutherland; J. Delgado) 7-2:  In his last two races, Cyberviking showed some versatility which is a good racehorse trait. Two back, he dueled on the lead while three wide, and when he made the lead, he waited on foes. He dug in well and won better than the head margin suggests. In his last race, he was outsprinted early but made a wide-sweeping move into an ok pace. I like when horses show different dynamics and can overcome adversity. That said, he is coming from cheaper races and will have to take a step forward to get his picture taken, but he does seem to have ability. WIN CONTENDER.

3.       Morgan Point – (J. Jude; C. Stewart) 10-1:  In his last race, Morgan Point fell out the back of a sharp pace but rallied wide and won off. During his rally, he lugged in and drifted a bit. But he won with his ears up and looking for more. Again, I see some talent in the youngster, but he needs to mature and run straight to contend with these. His pilot, Sammy Camacho, opts off him to ride the morning line favorite. LONGSHOT CHANCE.

4.       Markhamian – (M. Meneses; J. Avila) 4-1:  Juan Avila brings this Florida-bred son of Social Inclusion up north off a decent maiden score at Gulfstream. In that win, he tracked the pace three-wide around the turn and won off in a way that would suggest he can stretch out. This seems like a logical step. However, he will have to improve a bit on speed figures and wade out into open company. OUTSIDER.

5.       Cattin - (S. Camacho; R. Nicks) 2-1: This Florida bred son comes into The Pasco with “street cred.” He ran in two Florida Stallion series races last year and then came back off the bench to win the 6F Inaugural stakes right here at Tampa. Cattin took a step on The Sheets in that win, and I expect further improvement. WIN CONTENDER.

6.       Gold Special – (L. Panici; A. Rodriguez) 10-1:  Clearly the most experienced of the field, this charge will be rolling late if the pace is hot. He owns five in-the-money finishes out of 8 attempts, but he has finished behind a few of these in the past. OUTSIDER.

7.       Magical Mousse – (I. Castillo; J. Cruz) 12-1:  A speedy sort from an outside box getting blinkers for the first time alerts me to a possible pacesetter. He broke his maiden while on the engine for a tag of 40k before being sent off at 5.30-1 in the aforementioned Inaugural Stakes. Cattin was 4.70-1 in there, so somebody thought he had some ability. However, he dueled through sharp fractions in that stake race and wilted. I would expect him to improve first-time blinkers (trainer is 18%), and if they leave him alone early, he may get brave. BOARD CONTENDER.

 

Analysis

These types of races generally go through the Pletcher Army. Todd shipped Provocateur to Tampa to get a spin on the track in a 25k MSW. It clearly wasn’t a money grab but could potentially have been a dress rehearsal for bigger things to come. 

Provocateur is fast enough to clear most of the field, save the outside horse. I can see him getting a nice cozy stalking trip. 

Cattin seems like the goods. He is the most accomplished. It’s a logical progression for him, and he is the worthy 2-1 morning-line favorite. 

Cyberviking has upside but gets the acid test here. Morgan Point will need to improve, but you will get paid if he does. Finally, Magical Mouse will take them as far as he can and may hang around for a slice.

If they hang Provocateur anywhere close to his morning line of 7-2, he’s my guy. I don’t think he will be that price, so a win bet may not be in the cards. I will try and get one of the longer prices underneath and hope that Cattin regresses at the 2-1 ML. If Cattin floats up and Provocateur down, that may switch in my play.

 

The BET based on $100

$30 exacta 1-37 = 60

$12 exacta 37-1 = 24

$16 exacta 1-5

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Santa Ynez Stakes (G2)

Santa Ynez Stakes Fillies vie in Kentucky Oaks Qualifier

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

 

Saturday at 7:06 pm Eastern time is the $200,000 Grade 2 Santa Ynez Stakes, for 3-year-old fillies on the dirt at 7 furlongs. Held at the Great Race Place-Santa Anita Park, this is Derby Oaks Prep Race.

 

 

Of course, Trainer Bob Baffert is not eligible to race any horses at Churchill Downs so maybe this is a Derby Prep race for 5 out of the 6 entrants as the Bob Baffert Saga continues.

 

 Although a small field this shapes up as an interesting betting race. Your morning line favorite is the Bob Baffert conditioned Under the Stars. 

Under the Stars comes off a Maiden Special Weight victory at 6 furlongs and ran strong over a good field, including what looks to be a good filly in Miss Everything. The Bob Baffert trainee's first two races were only so-so, finishing 3rd both times, but something clicked last time out. This is a big step up, so I’ll pass on any win bets for this filly.

 

Big Switch at 9-5 is on our radar. Undefeated at 2-0 she dominated an 8-horse field last time out in the Golden State Juvenile Stakes at Del Mar.

Looks Like this filly can run up the distance ladder, starting at 6 furlongs, then 7 furlongs last time out. She is big indeed at over 16 hands and we like her to make the next progression Saturday.

 

Miss Mattie B at 5-1 has the most experience with 4 starts, with 2 coming on the Turf including her only win. If you think she can transition her winning form to the Dirt, this horse will be a steal at anywhere near her 5-1 morning line odds.

 

Awake at Midnyte ran a competitive 2nd last time out, losing by a bob in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes at Delmar. It was a one-mile race so she should have no problem handling the distance.

 

Big Shamrock at 20-1 looks just too slow for this field.

 

Mimajoon at 10-1 figures to be the early front runner but I don’t expect her to be around come the finish line.

 

We will look to beat Under the Stars using Miss Mattie B on top and Big Switch underneath

 

Here are our plays:

$50 Win on Miss Mattie B

$25 Exacta Box on Miss Mattie B/Big Switch