Handicapper's Corner: 2022 LeComte Stakes (G3)

 LeComte more than a two-horse race

By: Rowan Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The Kentucky Derby trail at Fair Grounds started earlier than usual this year, with the Gun Runner Stakes on December 26. It continues January 22 with the traditional beginning of the New Orleans spur: the Lecomte Stakes (G3).

The race takes its name from Lecomte: an equine star of the 1850s, a half-sister to Saratoga stakes namesake Prioress, and the only horse to defeat the great Lexington.  Though Lecomte was bred in Kentucky, he went to Louisiana as a yearling. He was named after his owner’s friend Ambrose Lecomte, a Louisiana landowner, and later gave a misspelled version of his name to the town of Lecompte, Louisiana.

The 2022 edition of the Lecomte Stakes drew a field of nine, who will compete for a $200,000 purse as well as Road to the Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1) for the top four finishers.

Though no Lecomte Stakes winner has yet gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, seven have won the Louisiana Derby, most recently International Star (2015).  The race has been a particularly live Preakness prep in recent years; in the last ten years, two of its winners have gone on to win Baltimore’s most important race: Oxbow (2013) and War of Will (2019). Last year’s winner, Midnight Bourbon, ran second in the Preakness as well.

The likely favorite in the 2022 Lecomte is #3 Pappacap, the class of the field. His versatility should suit him well, as there is quite a bit of early gas in this edition of the Lecomte, and Pappacap has been able to win either on or just off the pace. The question is when he will bounce back into that winning form, as he won his first two starts last year, but has not posed for the photographer since the Best Pal (G2) last August. However, he has been able to keep getting shares, as he was second behind Corniche in both the American Pharoah (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last autumn. Regular rider Joe Bravo returns to the saddle, and his trainer Mark Casse has gotten a solid enough beginning to the Fair Grounds meet to bode well for Pappacap.

#5 Epicenter is already a stakes winner over the course and distance, winning the Gun Runner Stakes authoritatively. Though he is one of several speed horses, he proved in both his maiden win and the Gun Runner that he can dispute the pace and keep going strongly, something Epicenter will have to prove again. The jockey assignment is a little strange, since on all form Epicenter appears to be the Steve Asmussen “A” entrant, but his last-out rider Brian Hernandez rides Presidential instead. However, Joel Rosario does come in to ride — and Rosario had the call on Epicenter’s maiden win, making the jockey assignment less of a concern than it would otherwise be.

The most interesting new face to the stakes level is #4 Trafalgar.  He has won twice in three starts, including a head victory in a N1X over this course and distance on December 2. Though it has been about a month and a half since that score, he won that race first off of a two-month layoff, proving that he can handle a bit of time off before a race, for a trainer (Al Stall) who has a strong record with those kinds of breaks. What makes Trafalgar most appealing is the versatility he has shown. Though his allowance win came from just off the pace, he was off slowly in his maiden win, settled toward the rear, and made a winning run. That proves Trafalgar does not need everything his own way, and can carve out a winning trip from wildly different shapes. He needs to move forward against these tougher horses, but is going the right way and has the upside to be the spoiler.

A short word about #6 Cyberknifeis appropriate. He is also a maiden winner over course and distance, and his connections (trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux) are strong at Fair Grounds. But, he will likely be overbet on that angle, and with the blinkers going back on, there is a good chance he will be one of too many speed horses, in a race where he ceded both that pace disadvantage and experience against classier horses.

 

Selections

#4 Trafalgar (5-1)

#3 Pappacap (8-5)

#5 Epicenter (9-5)

 

Longshot:  #8 Call Me Midnight makes his first start since a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as a 48/1 longshot. However, off the layoff, he does have several positive points for a big price. Though the Kentucky Jockey Club attempt was a disappointment, he has a good second-place effort in his other mile and a sixteenth race, a maiden special at Keeneland last October. That came with jockey James Graham in the irons; Graham, who is having a smart start to the Fair Grounds meet, returns for the Lecomte. And, with so many speed horses entered in the field, Call Me Midnight could work a good trip.