Betting the Pasco Stakes no easy task
By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
Tampa Bay Downs’ road to the Kentucky Derby starts in earnest this Saturday with the 7-furlong, $125k Pasco Stakes. Whether or not this event, carded as race 5, will produce a Classic runner remains to be seen. However, at this time of year, trainers like to throw horses against the proverbial wall to see if they go on the Derby trail, so it does offer an interesting handicapping exercise at a track I don’t often play.
Let’s dive in and look at the field.
1. Provocateur
– (A. Gallardo; T. Pletcher) 3-1: This
good-looking bay son by Into Mischief hails from Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher
for MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm. Each year Pletcher deploys part of his
string up to Tampa to pick off these lucrative stakes and is usually well
represented. Provocateur started long on the turf at Belmont in the late fall,
which tells me that the barn thinks he is a distance horse. That day he didn’t
show much run as the favorite but came back in a pair of sprints and looks to
be coming around nicely. The way he polished off his maiden win over this track
suggests he has plenty of upside. However, there is concern about him going
from the outside stalking trip he had to a potentially pressing rail trip with
other speed to his outside. WIN CONTENDER.
2. Cyberviking
– (C. Sutherland; J. Delgado) 7-2: In
his last two races, Cyberviking showed some versatility which is a good
racehorse trait. Two back, he dueled on the lead while three wide, and when he
made the lead, he waited on foes. He dug in well and won better than the head
margin suggests. In his last race, he was outsprinted early but made a wide-sweeping
move into an ok pace. I like when horses show different dynamics and can
overcome adversity. That said, he is coming from cheaper races and will have to
take a step forward to get his picture taken, but he does seem to have ability.
WIN CONTENDER.
3. Morgan
Point – (J. Jude; C. Stewart) 10-1:
In his last race, Morgan Point fell out the back of a sharp pace but
rallied wide and won off. During his rally, he lugged in and drifted a bit. But
he won with his ears up and looking for more. Again, I see some talent in the
youngster, but he needs to mature and run straight to contend with these. His
pilot, Sammy Camacho, opts off him to ride the morning line favorite. LONGSHOT
CHANCE.
4. Markhamian
– (M. Meneses; J. Avila) 4-1: Juan Avila
brings this Florida-bred son of Social Inclusion up north off a decent maiden
score at Gulfstream. In that win, he tracked the pace three-wide around the
turn and won off in a way that would suggest he can stretch out. This seems
like a logical step. However, he will have to improve a bit on speed figures
and wade out into open company. OUTSIDER.
5. Cattin
- (S. Camacho; R. Nicks) 2-1: This Florida bred son comes into The Pasco with
“street cred.” He ran in two Florida Stallion series races last year and then
came back off the bench to win the 6F Inaugural stakes right here at Tampa. Cattin
took a step on The Sheets in that win, and I expect further improvement. WIN
CONTENDER.
6. Gold
Special – (L. Panici; A. Rodriguez) 10-1:
Clearly the most experienced of the field, this charge will be rolling
late if the pace is hot. He owns five in-the-money finishes out of 8 attempts,
but he has finished behind a few of these in the past. OUTSIDER.
7. Magical Mousse – (I. Castillo; J. Cruz) 12-1: A speedy sort from an outside box getting blinkers for the first time alerts me to a possible pacesetter. He broke his maiden while on the engine for a tag of 40k before being sent off at 5.30-1 in the aforementioned Inaugural Stakes. Cattin was 4.70-1 in there, so somebody thought he had some ability. However, he dueled through sharp fractions in that stake race and wilted. I would expect him to improve first-time blinkers (trainer is 18%), and if they leave him alone early, he may get brave. BOARD CONTENDER.
Analysis
These types of races generally go through the Pletcher Army. Todd shipped Provocateur to Tampa to get a spin on the track in a 25k MSW. It clearly wasn’t a money grab but could potentially have been a dress rehearsal for bigger things to come.
Provocateur is fast enough to clear most of the field, save the outside horse. I can see him getting a nice cozy stalking trip.
Cattin seems like the goods. He is the most accomplished. It’s a logical progression for him, and he is the worthy 2-1 morning-line favorite.
Cyberviking has upside but gets the acid test here. Morgan Point will need to improve, but you will get paid if he does. Finally, Magical Mouse will take them as far as he can and may hang around for a slice.
If they hang Provocateur anywhere close to his morning line of 7-2, he’s my guy. I don’t think he will be that price, so a win bet may not be in the cards. I will try and get one of the longer prices underneath and hope that Cattin regresses at the 2-1 ML. If Cattin floats up and Provocateur down, that may switch in my play.
The BET based on $100
$30 exacta 1-37 = 60
$12 exacta 37-1 = 24
$16 exacta 1-5
No comments:
Post a Comment