Knicks Go ready to take flight in Pegasus
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
It’s January folks, and that means only two things.
1) Snow, ice and freezing cold temperatures up here in the ‘Great White North’.
With that, I will pay homage to the late singer Meatloaf and borrow his lyrics: “The snow is really piling up outside and that ain’t getting us nowhere”.
2) Gulfstream Park is underway down south in Florida.
Given the two options, we choose the latter and get away for some warmth, sunshine and a fast track for this Saturdays $3 million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational which drew a nine-horse field.
A total of seven graded stakes worth $5.2 million in purses will be offered on the Pegasus Day 12-card program, led by the World Cup, held at 1 1/8 miles and the $1 million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf, also contested at the same nine-furlong distance. In addition, race fans will see the debut of the $500,000 Grade 3 Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf, previously run as the Marshua’s River, which will be run at 1 1/16 miles
Since its debut in 2017, the Pegasus World Cup Invitational has grown into a signature event that helps to kick off the yearly schedule of top stakes races in the country.
Knicks Go and Life Is Good, a pair of Breeders’ Cup winners, headline this year’s Pegasus event. Both horses easily prevailed in their respective championship races back on November 6th, and now, facing each other, are bringing horseracing fans to the edge of their seats.
Both the Pegasus Turf and the Pegasus World Cup will be televised live on NBC from 4:30-6 pm E.T.
Let’s have a brief look at the Pegasus World Cup horses from the rail out.
1 - KNICKS GO: Joel Rosario/Brad Cox: 6-5 - The defending champion of this race, and likely to be named 2021 Horse of Year at the Eclipse Awards next month, attempts to become the first back-to-back winner of the Pegasus. In addition to winning this race last January and closing out the 2021 season winning the B.C. Classic, another signature win on his resume was a triumph in the Whitney Stakes. He’s had a stellar racing career and I’ll be rooting for him, but win or lose, this is his farewell race before heading off to retirement.
2 - CHESS CHIEF: Reylu Gutierrez/Dallas Stewart: 10-1 - Winner of Tenacious Stakes the day after Christmas at Fair Grounds gets his first try at Gulfstream which marks his 10th different racetrack, but he’s had difficulty winning on the road as all five lifetime wins have come at the Fair Grounds. He’s a deep closer who will need a pace collapse. It could happen, but unlikely.
3 -STILLETO BOY: Kent Desormeaux/Ed Moger, Jr: 20-1 - His only stakes win came last summer in the listed Iowa Derby, but he hasn’t disgraced himself when facing elite competition. Just look at the cast of horses that have finished in front of this guy in his last three G1 races. Another minor award is probably his ceiling here.
4 - LIFE IS GOOD: Irad Ortiz, Jr/Todd Pletcher: 7-5 - Was a runaway winner in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, leading every step of the way and winning by six lengths. The Pletcher trainee has won five of his six lifetime starts and has been pointed here since his November win. Despite the nine-furlong distance being his farthest attempt, his talent makes him a major threat to bring home the top prize.
5 - EMPTY TOMB: Paco Lopez/Robert Falcone, Jr: 20-1 - He was claimed last summer at Saratoga, then finished last in a pair of stakes before rebounding to win an allowance race in November and finish second in the Queens’ County Stakes last month, both at Aqueduct. He’s in a tough spot to get his first career stakes win.
6 - SIR WINSTON: Edwin Gonzalez/Mark Casse: 12-1 - After being sidelined for nearly a year, the 2019 Belmont Stakes winner returned last year to win an allowance race at Woodbine and closed out the season there last month with a winning score in the Valedictory Stakes. After the top two marquee names, this horse is only other G1 winner. He now returns to dirt racing after a series of good efforts on synthetic.
7 - TITLE READY: Tyler Gaffalione/Dallas Stewart: 20-1 - Opened last season with a victory in the G3 Louisiana at Fair Grounds then was shipped overseas to try the G1 Dubai World Cup where he finished eleventh, beating just one opponent. In two outings since, he’s been third and sixth over off-tracks. Outclassed and probably prefers shorter distances.
8 - ENDORSED: Umberto Rispoli/Mike Maker: 20-1 - Most recently, he was runner-up in G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes to close out 2021 season. Hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since May 2020, a series of 15 starts and hasn’t raced this far in a non-turf start since the summer of 2020 at Saratoga. To his credit, he’s worked regular and swiftly, but going two turns off the break is a tough task to ask. He’s better suited to sprinting.
9 -COMMANDEER: Julien Leparoux/James Toner: 30-1 - Had a successful 2021 campaign as a three-year old winning three races from seven starts and missing a top three finish just once, and that occurred in his first outing last February. The Pegasus marks his first stakes try and a gigantic leap in class.
ANALYSIS
This looks like a heavyweight matchup. Will a retiring champion make a memorable exit, or will there be a grand inauguration of a new champ that will continue to dominate races and provide fireworks for the rest of the year?
Five of the last six Pegasus winners prepped for the race with a win in the prior Breeders’ Cup Championships, including Knicks Go last season. That’s a glaring statistic that bodes well for the two headliners this year with Life is Good and the returning champion coming off wins in the Dirt Mile and Classic, respectively.
Both horses are wicked fast speedsters who prefer to be on the lead, so this duel could start right out of the gate. It’s hard to separate the two of them with their similar running styles and on-track success. The two horses stand apart and are clearly superior to the others on full-dress handicapping.
The tricky question is, which horse should be bet to win, if either?
Take the higher-priced horse. Let the odds dictate your bet. Usually, one horse will be an underlay, the other a low-priced overlay.
Players can consider Knicks Go and Life is Good to have a relatively equal chance, and the rest of the field some chance. By this reasoning, either of the two horses is a fair bet at 2-1, but no lower, and an overlay at 5-2 or greater.
If both possibilities are underlays, pass.
Another scenario to consider is, if you feel both could run themselves to a standstill and open the door for a late running rival, then choose one of the off-pace horses you think can pull off the upset.
Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!
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