Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Cigar Mile (G1)

 Cigar Mile Handicap - a race where age is just a number

By: Michael Amo, Thorofan

Although no snow is expected for Saturday in New York City, there will be plenty of rain. With rain beginning mid-day on Friday and continuing through post-time the track will likely be very muddy. Footing and splash back are two obstacles the horses will have to overcome to win. At this time there is a full field of nine. 

 

 

 

Unfortunately, weather conditions likely will promulgate some scratches. Here is the field:

 

 

1.       Performer (Speightstown) has the inside post and shows some early speed. Will likely try to get out ahead of the field for safer trip. He has not run that well on muddy going. Although a serious contender on paper, success is unlikely.

 

2.       Mind Control (Stay Thirsty) has not return to his form of 2019. May not be fast enough for this talented field. Backed up over a muddy track this summer in Saratoga. Deserves his long shot status.

 

3.       Snapper Sinclair (City Zip) coming up in class. Ran in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, finishing 4^th. Needs to return to that form to be competitive. 

 

4.       Firenze Fire (Poseidon’s Warrior) has tactical speed and may show up late to challenge. If he duplicates his Vosburgh performance, he will be in the money and could even win. His enemy in the race is the weather and the muddy track.

 

5.       Mr. Buff (Friend Or For) showed his ability in the last race for New York breds. He and True Timber are the senior citizens in the race at age 6. His tactical speed and acceptance of a muddy track should position him well for the race. The mile may be his best distance. Stepping into open company will be his biggest hurdle –a play at the right price.

 

6.       King Guillermo (Uncle Mo) has been off seven months. He was pointed toward the Kentucky Derby when an injury caused him to miss the race. He is working really well and could be in the money.

 

7.       Majestic Dunhill (Majesticperfection) drops 14 lbs. from his last race. Has a quick foot in the stretch. If he is in contention at the top of the stretch, he might surprise. He didn’t seem to like his race over a sloppy track, finishing off by eleven lengths. Big question mark.

 

8.       True Timber (Mineshaft) is a Calumet runner who has been trying grade one races with little success. He ran 3^rd in last year’s Cigar Mile. 

 

9.       Bon Raison (Raison d’Etat) is another Calumet runner that will be closing. He is working perfectly after a terrible showing the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Very quick in the stretch. However, needs more pace than will likely be in this race. Light weight with a chance for the exotics.

 

 

Predicting the winner of this year’s Cigar Mile (GI) will be determined a great deal by the weather, the condition of the track and post positions. There may be a few scratches announced on Saturday morning that could change the dynamics of the race. Given these risks it is unwise to take a low odds horse in a race where anything can happen.

 

Looking for some value, leads to the following selections:

1.       Mr. Buff (#5)

2.       Firenze Fire (#4)

3.       Performer (#1)

4.       Snapper Sinclair (#3)

 

HANDIGAMBLE PLAY:

$20 win on # 5 Mr. Buff --------------------------$20.00

$40 place on #5 Mr. Buff--------------------------$40.00

$5 Exacta Part Wheel #5 with #1, #3 and #4--$15.00

$1 Trifecta box #1, #3, #4 and #5 ----------------$24.00

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1)

Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) Analysis and Picks

By Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off 

The Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) anchors the Del Mar card on Friday. Going a mile and a half on the turf, the race drew an overflow field: twelve, plus two also-eligibles.

Race 7: Hollywood Turf Cup (G2), three-year-olds and up, one and one half miles on the turf, post time 3:30pm PST 

 

Arklow, the east coast invader, will probably be the favorite. On form, he deserves it: he is a well-proven mile and a half horse, and though he was off the board in the Breeders' Cup Turf, he wasn't embarrassed: less than four lengths beaten by Tarnawa. He is also versatile enough to track in range of the pace or sit well off, as the race demands. Though he has never gone to Del Mar before, he has always been the kind who can go to different tracks and show up strongly. Though, Brad Cox doesn't always win when he ships to Del Mar; he has only shipped seven starters in the last five years, but with only one winner among them despite five of the seven going off at 5/1 or shorter. Four of the seven have hit the board, but it's enough to beware at a short price.

 

Say the Word has gotten as good as ever this year. He surprised almost everyone when he not only won at 51/1 odds at Saratoga on August 14, but set a new course record. He is no flash in the pan, however: he has held his form in two starts since, and impressed in the Northern Dancer (G1) when he sat well off a pedestrian pace and still kicked on well enough to win by a measured length. He now moves to the Phil d'Amato barn, a positive angle, and gets a switch to the red-hot Flavien Prat. (He also has a speedy stablemate entered, Acclimate; if he has the same speed he did before a yearlong lay, Acclimate may help set things up mighty well for Say the Word, along with rail-drawn North County Guy and Ward 'n Jerry further outside, and Fivestar Lynch if he draws in.) Though there is a question of whether he will handle California firm ground as well as he handled Woodbine, Say the Word has been able to take his form to different tracks (and barns), and should be a serious threat in the lane.

 

German invaders can be hit-or-miss in the United States; judging from his outing in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), Laccario may well be a hit. He ran on well from midpack for second in that race behind only Channel Maker, who franked that form with a third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Though Laccario was still trained by German Andreas Wohler at that point, he has now moved to the barn of Graham Motion, who excels with new arrivals to his barn. However, be careful; his shippers to southern California do not win as often as hoped; he is only 6-for-77 over the last five years, 30% in the money, and has not had a winner at Del Mar specifically since 2016. So, the signals on Laccario are mixed; he merits some confidence underneath off that last effort, though with that trend he may be an underlay in the win pool.

 

Red King won three straight this summer, progressing from a one-other-than to the San Juan Capistrano (G3) to the Del Mar Handicap (G2), before finishing a flat ninth in the Breeders' Cup Turf. the mile and a half shouldn't trouble him. And, though he is only one-for-nine at Del Mar, he is seven-for-nine in the money, so at least he runs well over the course. He also keeps Umberto Rispoli in the irons — and that's perhaps the biggest thing in his favor. Rispoli is continuing his strong form into the Del Mar fall meet, and it speaks volumes that Rispoli knew Red King well enough to make that early move in the Del Mar Handicap and trust that it would be the winning one.

 

Selections:

#4 Say the Word (5/1)

#8 Laccario (3/1)

#3 Red King (5/1)

Longshot: At a price, #12 Another Mystery (10/1) intrigues. An Illinois mainstay last year, he has landed in California with trainer Michael McCarthy, and has not been disgraced against the West Coast turf set. his race in the John Henry last out was particularly encouraging, running on well late and almost nipping second at 61/1 odds. His third-place finish in the Bald Eagle Derby last year suggests potential at a mile and a half, as does the fact that he is such a close relative to the long-winded Ioya Bigtime. Under the red-hot Mike Smith, Another Mystery may just pull off another surprise.

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Kennedy Road (G2)

 Pink Lloyd Aiming for Fourth Kennedy Road Victory

By Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 

ThoroFan heads north of the border to Canada for our race of the week. We travel to Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, Ontario, for the Kennedy Road Stakes.

The six-furlong Grade 2 event with a purse of $175,000 is named after Canada’s champion colt from 1970-1973.

This year’s running of the Kennedy Road features the defending champion, Pink Lloyd, who also won this race in 2017. Canada’s Champion Male Sprinter the last three consecutive years, Pink Lloyd, has won 10 of 11 starts over the last two seasons, and is undefeated in 4 starts this year, including winning the Jacques Cartier for a record fourth time. 

The eight-year old is having another terrific season and a third Kennedy Road victory would assure him a fourth consecutive Sovereign Award for Champion sprinter honors. 

Another notable participant seeking to nail down the top sprinter award for 2020 is, Silent Poet. The five-year old gelding is Woodbine’s top turf sprinter, having won 4 of 5 grass starts this year, including a pair of Grade 2 stakes.

 Post time is slated for 5:28 pm E.S.T.

 

Let’s have a look at the field from the rail out.

PP–HORSE–Jockey/Trainer – ML

1-SOUPER STONEHENGE–Emma Jayne Wilson/Mark Casse - 12-1 Lightly-raced runner has quietly advanced through preliminary allowance conditions and now finds himself facing a tall task against some tough foes in his first stakes try. He’s won confidently and comfortably each time, so you can’t blame connections for trying to find out if this gelding can take it to a higher level.

 

2-RIDE A COMET–Patrick Husbands/Mark Casse – 5-2 - Brings a two-race winning streak to the race, including a rallying score over this synthetic surface last out. That was his first start in over two years when he was last seen winning the G2 Del Mar Derby. Obviously, his last was strictly a prep for this, and he sure looked good. Has talent, is a multiple-stakes winner, so don’t underestimate his chances.

 

3–ESKIMINZIN–Darryl Holland/Carlos Grant – 20-1 - Strung together back-to-back wins on turf to kick-off the second half of the year, but hasn’t repeated that winning form on either grass or synthetic since then. Last time out, he dueled between rivals throughout, then was steadied by the sixteenth pole and tired. Faces a tougher assignment here.

 

4-SILENT POET–Justin Stein/Nick Gonzalez – 2-1 - Fresh off a gate to wire score in last month’s Neartic Stakes. The multiple graded stakes winner has won 9 of 14 turf races, but also owns a victory on the Woodbine polytrack, plus 3 of 4 in-the-money synthetic finishes. Big chance.

 

5-DIXIE'S GAMBLE–Luis Contreras/Josie Carroll – 15-1 - Made his only appearance of the year three weeks ago when finishing fifth on the grass in the Overskate Stakes, a race he won last season when held on the main track. He closed out his 2019 campaign in this event, and he did quite well to recover from a slow start to end up fourth.

 

6-ROARING FORTIES–Kazushi Kimura/Dan Vella – 20-1 - This colt seems to possess a versatile running style. Like to be up close when going a route of ground, but prefers to come from off the pace when sprinting. If he employs that latter style, he’ll need pace help, lots of luck and prayers, as it appears on paper he is outclassed.

 

7-PINK LLOYD–Rafael Hernandez/Bob Tiller – 7-5 - What can you say about this win machine? He knows where the wire is and how to get it done. The elder statesman of the group has won 26 of 32 lifetime starts. In addition to three-time top sprinter honors, he was twice named Champion Older Male Horse (2017, 2019) and Canadian Horse of the Year (2017). He remains in top form, so his foes will have an arduous task trying to keep him from winning this race for a third time.

 

ANALYSIS: Championship honors for sprinter of the year is on the line in this Grade 2 contest, and it’s extremely difficult to look past the top two marquee names.

Fan favorite Pink Lloyd is having another terrific season and has racked up all his 26 victories on the Woodbine all-weather surface, while Silent Poet, returns to the Tapeta track since 2018. He did some good running on the synthetic stuff early in his career, but turned into a turf monster since switching over to the sod and has vastly improved.

 

Looking at the running styles of the entrants, there doesn’t appear to be much pace, and that could be a big advantage to Silent Poet, who does his best running and winning while racing on or near the lead. He can dictate his own terms on the front end like he did in his last two races and that will make it tough to run him down.

 

However, running down opponents is what Pink Lloyd does best and he’s done it 26 times in his career. He possesses competitiveness, late drive, determination, readiness, stamina, endurance and courage. All the attributes of a champion - which he is - It isn’t easy to keep coming up with superlatives to describe Pink Lloyd, he has completely dominated the sprint stakes at Woodbine for several years.

 

If one questions the 11-week layoff, let it be known, that off similar rest periods, he demonstrated he can be at the top of his game and win comfortably. From my sentimental side, I’d love to see him win again.

 

Ride a Comet returned after a two-year layoff, showing no rust and scored an impressive win. Turning back to six furlongs is a concern because he does like to come from well back, so he may be at the mercy of the pace. 

 

Dixie’s Gamble was done in by a slow start and lacked room on the turn in this race last year, but still managed to rally and be part of the superfecta. On speed figures, he isn’t as fast as the other three, but should be able to earn a share.

 

WAGER: The above four horses in a superfecta box. If the 2-1 morning line on Silent Poet holds or rises, a win wager is warranted. In addition, I’ll add a fist pump should Pink Lloyd do it again.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!