Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Haskell Stakes (G1)

Three Possible Scenarios in Haskell

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

The Haskell traditionally is the first Grade 1 event post Triple Crown. Toss that out the window. 

This year, the Haskell is a major Kentucky Derby qualifier, with a 100-40-20-10 points scale. 

Seven 3-year-old colts will travel nine furlongs around Monmouth Park’s main oval.

Main Contenders

The Haskell drew three leading contenders, Belmont Stakes (G1) runner-up Dr Post, Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Authentic, and Matt Winn Stakes (G2) runner-up Ny Traffic.  

Authentic could be lone speed, however, Lebda and possibly Ny Traffic could press him. Nine furlongs combined with a pacesetting running style makes the Baffert trainee a vulnerable favorite. 

Dr Post made up ground going six wide around the turn in the Belmont Stakes. He is the one most likely to benefit if Authentic gets pace pressure.  

Ny Traffic is game and generally hangs in there when setting or pressing the pace. His last three breezes have been very sharp, and he could be on the upswing. 

Logical Longshot

Jesus’ Team is on the improve. After winning at the $32,000 maiden claiming and a $25,000 claiming levels, the son of Tapiture faced the stakes trio of Sole Volante, Ete Indien, and Shivaree in a mile Allowance Optional Claiming event. He settled into a good rhythm in third, tracking dueling speedsters Ete Indien and Shivaree. Down the stretch, Jesus’ Team moved with Sole Volante but wasn’t going as fast as that one. It was a reasonable effort.   

Jesus’ Team’s pedigree and off the pace running style suggests nine furlongs is within his scope.

Up Against It

The final three, Lebda, Fame to Famous, and Ancient Warrior, are up against it.

Lebda dueled on the lead in the Ohio Derby then hit a wall, dropping back to finish sixth. He’s the big horse at Laurel, but winless elsewhere. He could be a saver bet for fourth place.

Fame to Famous is the race’s token grass horse hoping his initial dirt start in the Risen Star was a fluke. If he had shown forward movement at any point during that race, I’d be inclined to give him a second chance. Great pedigree, but not well spotted.

Ancient Warrior looked good, winning his debut by 4 1/2-lengths. And then…crickets. He’s been toiling against optional claimers, going nowhere fast.

In the last ten years, the victors were either deep closers or pressed the early pace. Only Bayern (2014) took them gate to wire. 

There are three likely scenarios. 

Speed duel: Is Authentic lone speed, or will Lebda and possibly Ny Traffic press him from the outside? If that scenario evolves, Dr Post can sit a cozy trip behind the pace and take over in the stretch. This seems the most likely outcome.

Steal it: Scenario two is that Smith throttles Authentic’s early speed, nobody notices, and they steal the race. 

Scenario three is that Smith lets a longshot (Lebda) pave the way, then makes his move in the stretch with Dr. Post and Ny traffic hot on his heels.

#1 Dr Post (5-2)

#2 Authentic (4-5)

#7 Ny Traffic (7-2)

#3 Jesus’ Team (15-1)

Handigambling

A crucial element of playing the horses is knowing a good betting race from a so-so one. This is a so-so one. 

There will be no surprises if one of the top three win. There also won’t be any big payouts. 

But if the money is burning a hole in your pocket, have fun with superfectas, either boxing or keying. Add #6 Lebda into the mix for a fourth-place saver.
 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Blue Grass Stakes (G2)

Blue Grass Glory

By: Alex Sausville, Off-the-Turf Podcast

For racing fans in Lexington, Kentucky the countdown began on October 26th, 2019, the last day of the fall meet. From then it has been a lot longer than usual for racing to find its way back to beautiful Keeneland. However when the 13 runners exit the starting gate on their 1 1/8 Mile journey on Saturday, we may feel that sense of normal once again, if only for a fleeting moment.

The Blue Grass Stakes itself has continued to shine in recent years, producing very talented runners going forward since it was downgraded from Grade 1 status in 2016. Most recently the likes of top older horse Vekoma, winner of the Carter and Met Mile has helped show the importance of the Blue Grass on the racing calendar. A race that many were unsure if it would run this year has now assembled a competitive field of 13 runners who will look to lock themselves in the starting gate for a similar but different first Saturday of the month. 

My Analysis:

This year’s Blue Grass field features a wide variety of horses coming from all different condition levels. Several runners in this field will be making the step up in class out of Optional Claiming, others coming off of graded stakes placings in recent derby preps. In addition to the slew of colts looking for derby points will be Swiss Skydiver, the lone filly in the field who looks to ride three straight graded stakes victories into a victory over the boys. Several runners such as Mr. Big News and Enforceable are past stakes winners who will be coming back off the layoff in this contest. This race features a lot of horses with experience on the derby trail, however the one that caught my eye has only tried stakes company on the turf.

Off of two impressive victories at Churchill, Art Collector will be making a significant jump up in class to take on a grade 2 level field. He has been visually impressive in Optional Claiming company and after starting his career on the turf has really taken a liking to the dirt. With each race so far, trainer Thomas Drury Jr. has been moving him up in distance each start since he received the horse. Despite this being his first time going the 1 1/8 Mile distance, he has continued to excel moving from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles and being a son of Bernardini out of a mare whose is grade 1 stakes-placed going 1 1/4 Miles should help this horse get the distance.

Even with taking on the boys in this start, Swiss Skydiver will most likely go off as the favorite in this race and based on recent form it will be justified. The backers of Swiss Skydiver will be watching closely on the Friday card as Speech, who finished 2nd to her in the Santa Anita Oaks will be the heavy favorite in the Beaumont giving a potential early indicator of the strength of that win out in Southern California. Visually her recent performances put her in a great spot here and she will be looking to continue to add to the great early success of sire Daredevil’s early crops.

A horse who continues to perform at the top level, Finnick The Fierce is one that needs to be considered underneath in any spot. He has not been able to find his way to the winner’s circle in a while but finished 3rd in the Arkansas Derby and 3rd last time out at Churchill behind my top selection in Art Collector. One last horse to look at that could end up being a strong chance if he’s able to get to the lead is Shivaree on the inside. This son of Awesome of Course has shown speed in recent starts and despite not being able to sustain to win these races going shorter could be the one who controls things pending who decides to go with him. He should have the ability to get himself out to the front and I would expect there to be some early pace on the front end in this field once they hit the first turn. 

My Plays:

$30 Win - 3 Art Collector = $30

$10 Exacta Box - 3,7 = $20

$4 Trifecta - 3,7/2,3,7/1,2,3,7,8 = $48

Total = $98

Final Thoughts:

Despite his move up in class, I am expecting to see a very strong performance by Art Collector. I believe he will handle the distance well and prove that he belongs versus graded stakes company. Swiss Skydiver will run her race and although I am not confident she would be able to get the front to herself like in the Santa Anita Oaks, she should be able to get a good trip and put her best hoof forward.

It has been an enjoyable week for all racing fans to see Keeneland back in action and Saturday will be the exceptional climax for a race meet that few expected to see racing just a few months ago. Although there will not be fans in attendance, many people who would be in the stands will be enjoying the high-class racing product from the comfort of their living room. The show goes on for the sport of horse racing, and we are thankful that it does.

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Manhattan Stakes (G1)

Manhattan Stakes: Chad Brown vs the rest

By: The Turk

Instilled Regard wins the 2020 Fort Marcy Stakes at Belmont Park Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping blog that has been handicapping online since 2008.

A big thank you to The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.

So much has happened in 2020 on a global stage.  I handicapped six races in January/February 2020, as I like to watch the turf racing in the early season in Florida and California as it helps me prepare for when the big races come and I'm looking for value.  While the world, and then the United States, went into a free fall beginning in March, my world went upside down with the death of both my Father in Law on March 12 and my own Father on April 8.  I had no interest in horse racing, I was forced to continue working alone in an office all by myself, and the best therapy for me was my work.  Day in and day out, 12-14 hour days.  My work got me through my grief.  It's time for horse racing to bring me back the feelings of pleasure.

Let's get after this!

My initial reaction was just how even a race this was, even with an albeit small field.  It's a four-horse race by my fair line odds, with my top 4 consuming 80% of the win percentage while the Morning Line uses five runners on a corrected basis (the percentages divided by 100% + Takeout) to get to 80%.  I don't think weather will be an issue and expect firm turf.

Let's start with looking at some video.

Belmont Park; 6 June 2020; 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf (Square around T for newbies on PP)  The Fort Marcy G2

Belmont Park; 4 June 2020; 1 3/8 Firm Turf (Circle around T for Main Turf);  The Tiller Stakes $80K


 Fairgrounds; 21 March 2020; 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; The Muniz Memorial Classic G2

I feel a bit rusty.  I have been handicapping for, hard to believe, 35 years this year, so rusty is relative, but I'm torn on my position on this race.  That's not a bad thing.  When you watch racing long enough you start to spot patterns, archetypes, a recurring pattern.  This movie seems very familiar.  I'm also not the type of race fan or handicapper that bemoans the quality of the field; handicap what you are given to work with and if you don't like the action, walk away.  It's that sentiment that allows me still have a roof over my head and a twenty eight year year marriage.

What to make of all this?  Instilled Regard is going to get bet hard.  Winning the Fort Marcy over this route of grass for Trainer Chad Brown who has Ortiz Jr up, does not hurt.  Brown sends three into a gate of eight, it almost doesn't seem fair or equitable.  I like Brown, I've been a fan of his for a very long time, but someone has to challenge is growing dominance on turf just to keep the dynamics of racing fair: 25% Graded Stakes winner in 241 starts, 27% Route Winner in 789 Starts, 26% Turf Winner in 666 Starts, 30% Won Last Start in 240 opportunities and 28% with the 2nd off a >45 day layoff.  Shocking numbers, and he dominates the top of the board here also saddling Rockemperor (Ire) and Devamani (Fr).  

Archetypes. Favorites for decades hovered as 30% winners from the gate.  That number is going up.  Does Instilled Regard come out of the gate, rate slightly off the flank and to the outside of  early speed Cross Over before handily passing and finishing by a length or two in front of a charging Rockemperor or Sadler's Joy? Admit it, you've seen this movie too.  Let's not be too jaded though.  Let's assume all Brown runners are allowed to compete fairly against each other, and we have no reason to believe he's dishonest (i discount his fine last year for back OT- the laws are slanted to protect workers, not employers, rightfully so, even if Brown was following standard practice on the backstretch), then is there value to be found in this race?  That's the only question a gambler has.  Yes, horse racing fans have other interests and concerns, but a gambler, the lifeblood of this sport, should have a narrow focus: Is there money to be made? Possibly, but not betting Brown horses Win Place Show.

My base handicap is in the chart.  It confuses some, but just because I handicap a winner doesn't mean I'll bet the handicap, its not sound gambling practice.  I'm leaning, tote board dependent, towards Devamani (Fr) on top, my tepid chalk.  While coming up short against Instilled Regard at 1 1/8 miles in June's Fort Marcy G2, Instilled Regard has a pretty low Tomlinson (309) for the extra furlong and has only one try at it in 17 lifetime starts.  Devamani has a field best 385 Tomlinson and his Class is off the charts, bred by Aga Khan Studs and selling for $322,000 (against only $294,000 career earnings).  The gelding may be a late bloomer, although conditioned by turf genius, Christophe Clement and Rob Atras, he is very sharp now in Brown's barn.  I'm hoping for 3-1 or better.

If you can't tell, I'm not estatic about this race from a gambling perspective.  Too much Brown, too much good Brown.  It's not top say crazy things don't happen, it's just not this gambler's business plan to hope for crazy.  I don't think it's crazy to think Sadler's Joy is starting to fade.  1 win in last 12:  Last 12 back to June 2018:  1 Win, 2 Place, 6 Show, 3 6th place finishes.  No longer a Grade 1 horse (except in fields like this), perhaps i'm wrong, and I have been before on older Champions, but I don't like the pace of this field for him.  He will get bet though, that's good.  So will Instilled Regard and Rockemperor.  That's good.  I'm going to keep my betting conservative and put Devamani on top with Dot Matrix and Cross Border to Show, a $2 bet for $4.  Plausible, not crazy, is the business plan.

It feels good to be back.  Thank you Thorofan.

Turk Out!