Friday, July 10, 2020

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Blue Grass Stakes (G2)

Blue Grass Glory

By: Alex Sausville, Off-the-Turf Podcast



For racing fans in Lexington, Kentucky the countdown began on October 26th, 2019, the last day of the fall meet. From then it has been a lot longer than usual for racing to find its way back to beautiful Keeneland. However when the 13 runners exit the starting gate on their 1 1/8 Mile journey on Saturday, we may feel that sense of normal once again, if only for a fleeting moment.

The Blue Grass Stakes itself has continued to shine in recent years, producing very talented runners going forward since it was downgraded from Grade 1 status in 2016. Most recently the likes of top older horse Vekoma, winner of the Carter and Met Mile has helped show the importance of the Blue Grass on the racing calendar. A race that many were unsure if it would run this year has now assembled a competitive field of 13 runners who will look to lock themselves in the starting gate for a similar but different first Saturday of the month. 




My Analysis:

This year’s Blue Grass field features a wide variety of horses coming from all different condition levels. Several runners in this field will be making the step up in class out of Optional Claiming, others coming off of graded stakes placings in recent derby preps. In addition to the slew of colts looking for derby points will be Swiss Skydiver, the lone filly in the field who looks to ride three straight graded stakes victories into a victory over the boys. Several runners such as Mr. Big News and Enforceable are past stakes winners who will be coming back off the layoff in this contest. This race features a lot of horses with experience on the derby trail, however the one that caught my eye has only tried stakes company on the turf.

Off of two impressive victories at Churchill, Art Collector will be making a significant jump up in class to take on a grade 2 level field. He has been visually impressive in Optional Claiming company and after starting his career on the turf has really taken a liking to the dirt. With each race so far, trainer Thomas Drury Jr. has been moving him up in distance each start since he received the horse. Despite this being his first time going the 1 1/8 Mile distance, he has continued to excel moving from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles and being a son of Bernardini out of a mare whose is grade 1 stakes-placed going 1 1/4 Miles should help this horse get the distance.

Even with taking on the boys in this start, Swiss Skydiver will most likely go off as the favorite in this race and based on recent form it will be justified. The backers of Swiss Skydiver will be watching closely on the Friday card as Speech, who finished 2nd to her in the Santa Anita Oaks will be the heavy favorite in the Beaumont giving a potential early indicator of the strength of that win out in Southern California. Visually her recent performances put her in a great spot here and she will be looking to continue to add to the great early success of sire Daredevil’s early crops.

A horse who continues to perform at the top level, Finnick The Fierce is one that needs to be considered underneath in any spot. He has not been able to find his way to the winner’s circle in a while but finished 3rd in the Arkansas Derby and 3rd last time out at Churchill behind my top selection in Art Collector. One last horse to look at that could end up being a strong chance if he’s able to get to the lead is Shivaree on the inside. This son of Awesome of Course has shown speed in recent starts and despite not being able to sustain to win these races going shorter could be the one who controls things pending who decides to go with him. He should have the ability to get himself out to the front and I would expect there to be some early pace on the front end in this field once they hit the first turn. 


My Plays:

$30 Win - 3 Art Collector = $30
$10 Exacta Box - 3,7 = $20
$4 Trifecta - 3,7/2,3,7/1,2,3,7,8 = $48

Total = $98


Final Thoughts:

Despite his move up in class, I am expecting to see a very strong performance by Art Collector. I believe he will handle the distance well and prove that he belongs versus graded stakes company. Swiss Skydiver will run her race and although I am not confident she would be able to get the front to herself like in the Santa Anita Oaks, she should be able to get a good trip and put her best hoof forward.

It has been an enjoyable week for all racing fans to see Keeneland back in action and Saturday will be the exceptional climax for a race meet that few expected to see racing just a few months ago. Although there will not be fans in attendance, many people who would be in the stands will be enjoying the high-class racing product from the comfort of their living room. The show goes on for the sport of horse racing, and we are thankful that it does.

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