Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Haskell Stakes (G1)

Three Possible Scenarios in Haskell

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

The Haskell traditionally is the first Grade 1 event post Triple Crown. Toss that out the window. 

This year, the Haskell is a major Kentucky Derby qualifier, with a 100-40-20-10 points scale. 

Seven 3-year-old colts will travel nine furlongs around Monmouth Park’s main oval.

Main Contenders

The Haskell drew three leading contenders, Belmont Stakes (G1) runner-up Dr Post, Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Authentic, and Matt Winn Stakes (G2) runner-up Ny Traffic.  

Authentic could be lone speed, however, Lebda and possibly Ny Traffic could press him. Nine furlongs combined with a pacesetting running style makes the Baffert trainee a vulnerable favorite. 

Dr Post made up ground going six wide around the turn in the Belmont Stakes. He is the one most likely to benefit if Authentic gets pace pressure.  

Ny Traffic is game and generally hangs in there when setting or pressing the pace. His last three breezes have been very sharp, and he could be on the upswing. 

Logical Longshot

Jesus’ Team is on the improve. After winning at the $32,000 maiden claiming and a $25,000 claiming levels, the son of Tapiture faced the stakes trio of Sole Volante, Ete Indien, and Shivaree in a mile Allowance Optional Claiming event. He settled into a good rhythm in third, tracking dueling speedsters Ete Indien and Shivaree. Down the stretch, Jesus’ Team moved with Sole Volante but wasn’t going as fast as that one. It was a reasonable effort.   

Jesus’ Team’s pedigree and off the pace running style suggests nine furlongs is within his scope.

Up Against It

The final three, Lebda, Fame to Famous, and Ancient Warrior, are up against it.

Lebda dueled on the lead in the Ohio Derby then hit a wall, dropping back to finish sixth. He’s the big horse at Laurel, but winless elsewhere. He could be a saver bet for fourth place.

Fame to Famous is the race’s token grass horse hoping his initial dirt start in the Risen Star was a fluke. If he had shown forward movement at any point during that race, I’d be inclined to give him a second chance. Great pedigree, but not well spotted.

Ancient Warrior looked good, winning his debut by 4 1/2-lengths. And then…crickets. He’s been toiling against optional claimers, going nowhere fast.

In the last ten years, the victors were either deep closers or pressed the early pace. Only Bayern (2014) took them gate to wire. 

There are three likely scenarios. 

Speed duel: Is Authentic lone speed, or will Lebda and possibly Ny Traffic press him from the outside? If that scenario evolves, Dr Post can sit a cozy trip behind the pace and take over in the stretch. This seems the most likely outcome.

Steal it: Scenario two is that Smith throttles Authentic’s early speed, nobody notices, and they steal the race. 

Scenario three is that Smith lets a longshot (Lebda) pave the way, then makes his move in the stretch with Dr. Post and Ny traffic hot on his heels.

#1 Dr Post (5-2)

#2 Authentic (4-5)

#7 Ny Traffic (7-2)

#3 Jesus’ Team (15-1)

Handigambling

A crucial element of playing the horses is knowing a good betting race from a so-so one. This is a so-so one. 

There will be no surprises if one of the top three win. There also won’t be any big payouts. 

But if the money is burning a hole in your pocket, have fun with superfectas, either boxing or keying. Add #6 Lebda into the mix for a fourth-place saver.