Quality field set for Rebel Stakes
By: John DaSilva,Parx morning line oddsmaker
The 60th running of the Grade 2 $1,000,000 Rebel Stakes at
Oaklawn might not have the quantity of horses that caused the race to be split
in 2019, but the quality might be better than both those races combined.
A
field of eight has been entered and we can say most of the field has the look
of a winner.
The 5/2 morning line favorite is Nadal. Trained by
Bob Baffert, the lightly raced son of Blame drew the rail for his two turn
debut. After an impressive maiden victory going six furlongs in his career
debut, he came back to win the Grade 2 San Vicente at seven furlongs. Bred to
handle the distance, he should be on or close to the pace. But he removes the
blinkers for this spot. So they might be looking for him to rate here. He was
ridden by Joel Rosario that day, who retains the mount here.
Intriguing prospect is Basin. The Steve Asmussen
trainee makes his first start since winning the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga in
September. He has been working at Fair Grounds before shipping up to Oaklawn
for his final work on Monday. He has shown the ability to rate, but the layoff
and having only three career starts could hamper him here. Javier Castellano
picks up the mount and he is the surprising second choice here at 3-1.
Asmussen has an uncoupled entry here and he also sends out
Silver Prospector. Last time out in the Grade 3 Southwest. Ricardo Santana
Jr. had him saving ground with a ton of horse underneath him. On the far turn
he angled out and when asked for run, he responded kindly and won by a measured
length. That was his third start going two turns but first on a fast track
going two turns. Santana retains the
mount again and surprisingly he is the co-third choice at 7/2.
The other horse at 7/2 on the morning line is Three
Technique. Trained by Jeremiah Englehart and owned by Hall of Fame NFL
Coach Bill Parcells, Three Technique comes off a second place finish to off
track loving Gold Start in the Smarty Jones Stakes. That was his first attempt
at two turns. He should be running midpack early versus these. With Jose Ortiz
out with an injury, Luis Saez comes in from Florida for the mount.
No Parole has been a buzz horse since his first start
when he broke his maiden against state-breds by 14 lengths at Fair Grounds in
December. The Tom Amoss trainee then won state bred stakes by 13 and 6 ½
lengths. Sold partially by Maggi Moss to Greg Tramontin after his last start,
he faces open company for the first time. He has been working very well at Fair
Grounds for this spot and Joe Talamo picks up the mount. He is 8-1 on the
morning line.
American Theorem ships in from Santa Anita for George
Papaprodromou. He hasn’t started since finishing second in the Grade 1 American
Pharoah in September, which was his second start and it happened to be at this
distance. He showed improved early speed that day. Brazilian Tiago Pereira rode
him that day and retains the mount here. He is 6-1 on the morning line.
The other two horses in the race are Excession and Coach
Bahe. Both are 30-1 on the morning line. Excession was never a threat in
the last two starts, both graded stakes races. Coach Bahe adds Lasix and is a
first time gelding after breaking his maiden in an off the turf race at Fair
Grounds.
How the race sets up:
Picking a winner will not be easy. Most of the field can
win. Visualizing the race, Nadal and No Parole could battle on
the front end unless the plans for Nadal is to rate. On the far turn, I expect Silver
Prospector to make his move to the lead. He should get it after
straightening out coming into the stretch and hold off Three Technique
for the victory. Nadal should hold on for third.
Handigambling:
The bet for the race is $40 to win on Silver Prospector.
Then play a $20 exacta part wheel of Silver Prospector with
Three Technique and Nadal
Use a backup $10 exacta part wheel saver of Three Technique
and Nadal over Silver Prospector.
