Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Rebel Stakes (G2)

Play these horses in the Rebel Stakes

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) is the second-to-last leg of the  Oaklawn Park prep races for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. 

The weather may be a factor as it is forecasted to have showers during the latter part of the day. 

 

 

 

Let's review the horses to bet.

We have an unbeaten favorite in #2 Newgrange who’s Baffert’s entry with Johnny V up for the task. Hard to argue with an unbeaten favorite who’s trained by the guy who has won like 8 of the last 10 Rebel Stakes, but there are some entries that could hamper the favorite along the way.

We have a proven winner over the track in wet conditions in #11 Dash Attack, who took the Smarty Jones here last month.

Second behind the favorite in the Southwest last out, #9 Barber Road is a tough character and is a winner or place horse in 5 of his 6 races.

#1 Kovad and #7 Ben Diesel might be the pace factors. Kovad set a fairly strong pace in the Southwest and was caught by the favorite and others. He has improved since changing barns under Chris Hartman. Ben Diesel seems solid until the top of the stretch and gives it up.

There are two who have speeds that can compete and are on the improve. #10 Ethereal Road won last out with a furious closing bid to win by four, and #8 Chasing Time, whose two wins and a place in four starts makes him my top pick of the Asmussen trained entries.

The others on the card do not show enough to mention.

If it is a fast track, the favorite is the likely winner, given his record. If it’s good to sloppy, I’d look for an upset. The safe betting says play the favorite on top in any exotics with those that are proven. 

 

Handigambling

$.50 Trifecta Fast Track bet: 2 with 9, 11, 8 with 9, 11, 8, 1, 7, 10     cost $7.50

$.50 Trifecta Wet Track bet: 9, 11, 8 with 2 with  9, 11, 8, 1, 7, 10    cost $7.50

You can multiply the bet to suit your taste. And as always, stay within your limits.

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Rebel Stakes (G2)

Quality field set for Rebel Stakes

By: John DaSilva,Parx morning line oddsmaker

The 60th running of the Grade 2 $1,000,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn might not have the quantity of horses that caused the race to be split in 2019, but the quality might be better than both those races combined. 

A field of eight has been entered and we can say most of the field has the look of a winner.

The 5/2 morning line favorite is Nadal. Trained by Bob Baffert, the lightly raced son of Blame drew the rail for his two turn debut. After an impressive maiden victory going six furlongs in his career debut, he came back to win the Grade 2 San Vicente at seven furlongs. Bred to handle the distance, he should be on or close to the pace. But he removes the blinkers for this spot. So they might be looking for him to rate here. He was ridden by Joel Rosario that day, who retains the mount here.

Intriguing prospect is Basin. The Steve Asmussen trainee makes his first start since winning the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga in September. He has been working at Fair Grounds before shipping up to Oaklawn for his final work on Monday. He has shown the ability to rate, but the layoff and having only three career starts could hamper him here. Javier Castellano picks up the mount and he is the surprising second choice here at 3-1.

Asmussen has an uncoupled entry here and he also sends out Silver Prospector. Last time out in the Grade 3 Southwest. Ricardo Santana Jr. had him saving ground with a ton of horse underneath him. On the far turn he angled out and when asked for run, he responded kindly and won by a measured length. That was his third start going two turns but first on a fast track going two turns.  Santana retains the mount again and surprisingly he is the co-third choice at 7/2.

The other horse at 7/2 on the morning line is Three Technique. Trained by Jeremiah Englehart and owned by Hall of Fame NFL Coach Bill Parcells, Three Technique comes off a second place finish to off track loving Gold Start in the Smarty Jones Stakes. That was his first attempt at two turns. He should be running midpack early versus these. With Jose Ortiz out with an injury, Luis Saez comes in from Florida for the mount.

No Parole has been a buzz horse since his first start when he broke his maiden against state-breds by 14 lengths at Fair Grounds in December. The Tom Amoss trainee then won state bred stakes by 13 and 6 ½ lengths. Sold partially by Maggi Moss to Greg Tramontin after his last start, he faces open company for the first time. He has been working very well at Fair Grounds for this spot and Joe Talamo picks up the mount. He is 8-1 on the morning line.

American Theorem ships in from Santa Anita for George Papaprodromou. He hasn’t started since finishing second in the Grade 1 American Pharoah in September, which was his second start and it happened to be at this distance. He showed improved early speed that day. Brazilian Tiago Pereira rode him that day and retains the mount here. He is 6-1 on the morning line.

The other two horses in the race are Excession and Coach Bahe. Both are 30-1 on the morning line. Excession was never a threat in the last two starts, both graded stakes races. Coach Bahe adds Lasix and is a first time gelding after breaking his maiden in an off the turf race at Fair Grounds.

How the race sets up:

 

Picking a winner will not be easy. Most of the field can win. Visualizing the race, Nadal and No Parole could battle on the front end unless the plans for Nadal is to rate. On the far turn, I expect Silver Prospector to make his move to the lead. He should get it after straightening out coming into the stretch and hold off Three Technique for the victory. Nadal should hold on for third.

Handigambling:

The bet for the race is $40 to win on Silver Prospector.

Then play a $20 exacta part wheel of Silver Prospector with Three Technique and Nadal

Use a backup $10 exacta part wheel saver of Three Technique and Nadal over Silver Prospector.