Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Arlington Handicap (G3)

Bandua Lone Speed in Arlington Handicap 

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

 

The Arlington Million is coming up August 10, and time for the local prep races has drawn nigh.  Don't adjust your clocks if it feels like the races are coming a little late: in recent years Arlington has hosted its preps five weeks out from the Million, but this year there are only four weeks between Ride to the Million Day and Arlington's flagship race day.

Though the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap currently serves as the local prep for the Arlington Million, it predates the Million by a few years.  The Handicap was first run in 1929 over the Arlington main track.  It was first run on turf in 1941, though it periodically moved from the turf to the dirt and back over the years.  It has been regularly carded for turf since 1972, and only run on the main twice since then: 1972 and 1975, when it was moved due to turf course conditions.  This year, in its 84th running, the race offers a purse of $100,000.

Since the inception of the Arlington Million in 1981, no winner of the Arlington Handicap has won Arlington's richest race.  However, four winners of this local prep have gone on to finish second in the Million: Evanescent (1993), Fanmore (1994), Just as Well (2009), and Kasaqui (2016).  Though his best finish in the Million was third, few in the history of the Arlington Handicap stand out the way Rahystrada did.  He won the race three times: in 2010, 2012, and 2013.

Race 7: Arlington Handicap (G3), three-year-olds and up, one and three sixteenths miles on the turf, post time 4:46pm CDT.

This year's edition of the Arlington Handicap offers a purse of $150,000, and drew a field of ten horses, though Captivating Moon may or may not go, since he is cross-entered in the day's allowance opener.  Captivating Moon, whether he starts or not, is a good place to start the discussion of this race — because he, like so many in this race, likes to come from well off the pace.  The race drew a respectable-sized field, but it didn't draw much pace.  So, it plays right into Bandua's hands.  Bandua doesn't always make the top, but in his better races he runs on or near the lead, and none of his foes have early pace to rival his.  From the fence Adam Beschizza should be able to send him, save ground, and have plenty left in the lane. Bandua also has a pinch of Arlington form; he has raced over the course once, and ran third behind Analyze It and Carrick in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) last year.  All in all?  Bandua won't be a short price, but with a defined pace advantage and the stamina to get nine and a half furlongs, he is the one to beat.

El Picaro makes his second North American start for trainer Ignacio Correas.  Correas has an excellent sense for which South American horses will do well in the US, and knows how to get them ready...eventually.  I only say eventually because he rarely fires big off the layoff; his horses typically need a start or two to round into their best.  El Picaro made his first North American start and his first start at all in seven and a half months, in last month's Wise Dan (G2) at Churchill.  El Picaro stuck around for sixth in a field of 13, beaten only three and a half lengths in a field significantly tougher than the Arlington Handicap drew.  It was a positive sign for El Picaro's continued campaign in the United States.  As with so many in this field, pace is the question.  But, El Picaro does not need to drop all the way back to the clouds, he gets the top local rider in Jose Valdivia, and he is already a winner at a mile and a quarter in Chile.  He is a horse with upside, more upside than most in this field.

It has been a few years since Florent Geroux rode in Chicago day in and day out, but when he does come to Arlington on a big day, watch out.  He has built a reputation for riding well on big days, and when he returns to this track he knows so well, he typically makes an impact.  Of course, he has to have the horse, and Cullum Road is plenty of horse for this modest renewal of the Arlington Handicap.  Like El Picaro, he comes out of the Wise Dan, though he dropped too far off the pace and only picked off a few horses late.  Still, other recent races suggest Cullum Road does not have to drop quite so far back, and they also suggest that the mile and a sixteenth of the Wise Dan was too short for him.  Trainer Mike Maker comes to Ride to the Million Day locked and loaded, and should have Cullum Road right back in his sweet spot.

Selections

#1 Bandua (7/2)

#5 El Picaro (9/2)

#9 Cullum Road (9/2)

Longshot:  #2 Botswana (30/1) took a while to get going, dropping to maiden claiming levels as cheap as $20,000 last year before finding his stride in protected company on the grass.  This is a class test; he has been holding his own in first- and second-level allowances on the "A" circuits this spring, but he hasn't tried stakes company.  He does need sharp improvement, but with only nine starts underneath him, the four-year-old son of Graydar still has upside.  And, from a pace perspective.  Botswana may not outjump Bandua to the lead, but he reliably finds a spot near the front.  Botswana has the tactical speed so many others in this field lack.  And, don't be surprised if sharp, aggressive local rider Mitchell Murrill uses that to full advantage.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Sanford Stakes (G3)

Can Cicuna cook the field in Sanford Stakes?

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

 

The Sanford Stakes was unveiled at in 2019 and renamed the Sanford in 1913. Man O’War suffered his sole defeat in the Sanford. 53 years later, a big Chestnut colt named Secretariat captured the first of his 14 stakes victories in the Sanford. A few years later, Affirmed showed a hint of things to come in the race.

Only five colts were entered in the 2019 Sanford Stakes (G3), including two from the first crops of Constitution and Bourbon Courage. The six furlong event is the first of a trio of Saratoga’s graded stakes on the dirt for 2YO colts.

All except Memorable exited their last start as winners.

CUCINA has recorded the best work tab, with three bullet breezes since May. In his second start, he fought hard in the stretch and prevailed by a neck over a sloppy Belmont track, in a race originally scheduled for turf. He could go to the post as the favorite, but trainer Mark Casse will decide the morning of the race whether to run the colt or possibly wait until next month for a turf stakes. Cucina’s dam was in the money in her only two starts, over dirt and mud. The colt hails from the same distaff line as Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo. Cucina’s second generation includes blacktype earners over dirt and turf.  

TOMATO BILL beat softer company at Delaware in his debut in May, and may be one of the most well-conditioned colts in the field after three consecutive 5 furlong breezes at Saratoga. His half-sister Workaholic is a stakes winning sprinter and their dam is Group 3 stakes placed in Brazil. Second dam Summerly won the Kentucky Oaks, and was third in the Golden Rod as a 2YO. Tomato Bill’s third dam Hear I Go also placed in the Golden Rod.

MEMORABLE regressed in the Tremont Stakes after winning his maiden. He’s had a series of slowish works, but could improve in the Sanford. Many times, a last out maiden winner can regress in their next race. Now that he has that out of the way, let’s see if he can live up to his illustrious pedigree. The son of Uncle Mo has a stamina oriented pedigree. His second generation is filled with blacktype winners, including 2002 Irish Champion 2YO Tomahawk, Starlet (G1) winner Dream Tree, Ashland Stakes (G1) winner Well Chosen, who bore multiple G1 stakes winning turf router Telling, and Travers (G1) winner Golden Ticket.

BY YOUR SIDE is a member of multiple G1 winner Constitution’s first crop. The colt has the pedigree to stretch out to middle distances. In his 5 1/2-furlong debut, By Your Side settled a couple of lengths off the pace, and made a late move to get up by a nose. He’ll appreciate the extra distance, and if a speed duel develops, he’ll be one to watch. There’s some minor blacktype scattered through his pedigree, most notably, Hollywood Starlet (G1) winner Pure Fun and G3 wining sprinter Heavenhasmynikki.

RAGING WHISKY is making his first start for Doug O’Neill after a maiden victory at Santa Anita. He’s from the first crop of Bourbon Courage, whose sole stakes win was in the G2 Super Derby at 1 1/8-miles. There isn’t much blacktype in the first few generations of the colt’s distaff line, however top turf miler Designed For Luck and West Virginia Derby winner Macho Macho are found in the third generation. Raging Whisky’s third dam is G1 stakes winner Fantastic Look.

SELECTIONS

#3 CUCINA (8-5)

#4 TOMATO BILL (9-2)

#1 MEMORABLE (6-1)

HANDIGAMBLING

A five horse race isn’t a good betting opportunity, and if Cucina scratches, prospects for a positive ROI are even worse. I suggest saving the money and betting on Nicole Neulist’s selections in the Arlington Handicap.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Belmont Oaks Invitational

Strong Group of Turf Fillies in Belmont Oaks

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan Member

Saturday's Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational or the “Chad Brown Invitational” is for 3-year-old fillies, going 1 1/4 miles on the inner turf course at Belmont Park.

 The Belmont Oaks Invitational is the first leg of the “Turf Tiara.”  The second leg coming Friday, August 2, at Saratoga with the inaugural Saratoga Oaks at 1 3/16-miles, and the final leg will be the new Jockey Club Oaks September 7 at Belmont.

Olendon - Bary/J. Velazquez

Find it interesting that this French-bred was just purchased by well-meant owners and will be trained by Chad Brown after this race.  Beaten just one-length in a Group 1 over the pond last time out racing the one mile and a quarter distance. Has run well on soft turf as well.  Looking for this girl to make a good representation of herself in here with a bright future ahead.

Newspaperofrecord - C. Brown/I. Ortiz Jr.

Clearly the Breeders’ Cup Champ has talent but her last two raise a red flag as to how far does she really want to go.  In her first two starts this year she has appeared headstrong.  Concrete Rose appeared to be more prepared for their last meeting.  With some other potential speed in here (Jodie) she might get a better pace to rate and if so, may be very tough to run down in the stretch even with the distance question mark.

Coral Beach - A. O’Brien/M. Hussey

Filly has already started 16 time but with just two wins.  Has kept good company with two Grade 1 appearances.  May enjoy the added ground.

Concrete Rose - G. Arnold II/J. Leparoux

This young lady has done little wrong thus far in her career winning four of five.  Her only defeat came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf won by Newspaperofrecord.  Rose took the win however in their last matchup as much the best.  Hard to ignore this one.

Café Americano - C. Brown/J. Castellano

Unbeaten in two career starts she is stepping up big time in class to this Grad event, but after all it is the Chad Brown invitational so who knows.

Just Wonderful - A. O’Brien/W. Lordan

The second one in here from O’Brien has kept good company this being her fifth Grade 1 appearance.  Would need to step up her game to make an impact in     here, maybe the increase in distance helps her do just that.

Jodie - H. Toda/M. Muto

The Japan invader appears to bring speed with her to this event. This Miss has run the distance twice.  Reportedly runs better turning left.

Dyna Passer - T. Albertrani/J. Rosario

Ran well in both starts this year on the turf breaking her maiden going longer in her last.  While her figures seem low her breeding for the grass and distance intrigues me a bit.  She could pick up a share at a price if she improves.

Cambier Parc C. Brown/J. Ortiz, another filly from Brown, she comes in here off a win in the Wonder Again on the Belmont grass (outer course) besting Newpaperofrecord.  She appears to be improving with racing and age, also working well.

The Plays

Would not be surprised to see two of the three Chad Brown fillies run one/two in here.  Although concerned about if she can get the distance, Newspaperofrecord gets a better set up in here than in her last two and beats this field at what most likely will be another short price.  I’m going to try to be creative in this event and see if maybe just maybe we can squeeze out a fair priced trifecta.

$3 tri  1-2-8 / 1-2-4-8-9 / 1-2-4-6-8-9 $72

Have A Day!

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

En Garde at the Wire

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

 

This is a renewal for this race at Belmont Park on Stars and Stripes weekend. It is also a renewal for this handicapper to try to figure out the race. Last year my pick, Hunting Horn, finished third. None of my other picks were in the money. Although I am hoping this year will be different, the large field of highly competitive horses is a challenge. 

The weather may impact the turf for the Belmont Derby Invitational and make this handicapping assignment even more difficult. With a 40% chance of scatter thunderstorms it is likely to make the turf soft. Watch for those that like softer going. 

 With a million-dollar purse the race has attracted a large field of good horses. A case can be made for a number of them to win or figure into the exotics.  Tough race.

A tell to understanding this race’s outcome may be the breeding and European entries who may like the soft going better than others. Three of them are using Lasix for the first time; a drug that is not used in their respective countries, but thought to have some performance enhancing qualities. O’Brien’s two are first-time-starters in North America and are first-time Lasix users.  

Three horses have shown sufficient early speed to keep the pace honest. They are Standard Deviation, Social Paranoia and Spinoff---all North American horses. However, it seems the strength in the race is possessed by those that come off the pace. This race should have an exciting finish.

Here is the field:

1.       Moon Colony (Uncle Mo) Won last out and will like the soft going; if it is. Distance may be his problem. Post position is not a plus. Not today.

2.       Standard Deviation (Curlin) Did OK in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year. Working nicely. Gets Brown’s rider Ortiz (J). May be Brown’s pace setter with some early speed. Is showing an improving pattern. Should be a contender through the stretch, as long as he can last.

3.       Seismic Wave (Tapit) Working nice. Mott prepped him over Belmont turf for this one. Fast in the lane.  He has a good deal of stakes-turf experience. He is a contender for exotics.

4.       English Bee (English Channel) Big class jump for this one. Will have trouble in the last furlong.

5.       Plus Que Parfait (Point of Entry) UAE Derby win causes respect. May try to push the pace. Turf ability is questionable.

6.       Henley’s Joy (Kitten’s Joy) Lower level turf stakes experience will help him here. Bullet work shows Maker has him ready. If the turf is soft it may compromise his chances. Not sure.

7.       Master Fencer (JPN) (Just a Way) His close in the Belmont Stakes (GI) on the wrong lead was impressive. Turf and distance seem ok. If he performs equally on the turf as he has on the dirt, he is a serious contender. Bringing in Japanese jockey Hamanaka is a powerful message. Contender.

8.       Social Paranoia (Street Boss) Looks like the best of Pletcher’s duo. However, J. Ortiz goes to Brown’s entry. Ran well over Belmont turf. Is expected to take the lead out of the gate. Maybe Franco can do it. Be cautious.

9.       Cape of Good Hope (IRE) (Galileo) This a solid O’Brien runner. Perfect for distance. Had trouble in last finding a gap. Not sure if that explains the result or is his form waning. Has a win going left-handed in April at Epsom. New jockey raises questions.

10.     Spinoff (Hard Spun) Has grade one experience, albeit without a win. Maybe too much to ask here as he tries turf for the first time. One thing seems likely. He will be pushing the pace out-of-the-gate.

11.     Blenheim Palace (IRE) (Galileo) Another O’Brien horse that comes west with new jockey and Lasix for first time. Plenty of left-handed running experience. Breeding by Galileo is a positive against these. Ran well against older-horses last time, which may be an important angle. Possible.

12.     Demarchelier (IRE) (Dubawi) Brown’s English entry who comes into the race undefeated on turf with jockey Castellano. Each race showed improvement. Belmont experience a positive. Distance may be an issue down the stretch. Could be in exotics.

13.     Digital Age (IRE) (Invincible Spirit) Keeps Irad Ortiz after closing to win a grade two at Churchill Downs on Derby Day and remaining undefeated. Rested with nice turf works at Belmont. Should be ready. Breeding questions distance. Contender, if has the stamina.

14.     Rockemperor (IRE) (Holy Roman Emperor) Gets jockey Velazquez in his North American debut. Brown tries Lasix for first time. Showed good form over turf at this distance last year. Should like the soft going. Brown’s best chance to win.

15.     He’s No Lemon (Lemon Drop Kid) [AE] Chance he will draw into the race, if Brown scratches Demarchelier. Castellano performed with him in last Belmont. Too much to ask here, if he draws in. Pass

With full field it is likely some horses’ performance could be compromised by post-position and bumping coming out of the gate. Condition of the turf course may be a factor, as well. As the field rounds the first turn the aforementioned speed horse should be in the first wave. The others will be positioning for their later moves. The most dangerous horse in the field is the Japanese horse, Master Fencer. He will be positioned near the rear of the field down the backside. As they enter the stretch Standard Deviation should have the lead with the closers coming. The likely challengers to take the lead are Master Fencer, the O’Brien entry, Blenheim Palace, Mott’s Seismic Wave and Brown’s, Rockemperor. This a race worth chasing some value. 

Here is how I see the race finishing:

1.      Master Fencer (#7)

2.      Blenheim Palace (#11)

3.      Seismic Wave (#3)

4.      Rockemperor (#14)

Handigamble ($100)

$10 to win and $30 to place on Master Fencer (#7)  ($40)

$5 Exacta Box (Master Fencer (#7), Blenheim Palace (#11) and Seismic Wave (#3))  ($30)

$1 Trifecta Box (Master Fencer (#7), Blenheim Palace (#11), Seismic Wave (#3) and Rockemperor (#14) ($24) (Use the balance to celebrate your win).

Good Luck, but keep the day job.