Bandua Lone Speed in Arlington Handicap
By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off
The Arlington Million is coming up August 10, and time for
the local prep races has drawn nigh.
Don't adjust your clocks if it feels like the races are coming a little
late: in recent years Arlington has hosted its preps five weeks out from the
Million, but this year there are only four weeks between Ride to the Million
Day and Arlington's flagship race day.
Though the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap currently serves as
the local prep for the Arlington Million, it predates the Million by a few
years. The Handicap was first run in
1929 over the Arlington main track. It
was first run on turf in 1941, though it periodically moved from the turf to
the dirt and back over the years. It has
been regularly carded for turf since 1972, and only run on the main twice since
then: 1972 and 1975, when it was moved due to turf course conditions. This year, in its 84th running, the race
offers a purse of $100,000.
Since the inception of the Arlington Million in 1981, no
winner of the Arlington Handicap has won Arlington's richest race. However, four winners of this local prep have
gone on to finish second in the Million: Evanescent (1993), Fanmore (1994),
Just as Well (2009), and Kasaqui (2016).
Though his best finish in the Million was third, few in the history of
the Arlington Handicap stand out the way Rahystrada did. He won the race three times: in 2010, 2012,
and 2013.
Race 7: Arlington Handicap (G3), three-year-olds and up, one
and three sixteenths miles on the turf, post time 4:46pm CDT.
This year's edition of the Arlington Handicap offers a purse
of $150,000, and drew a field of ten horses, though Captivating Moon may
or may not go, since he is cross-entered in the day's allowance opener. Captivating Moon, whether he starts or not,
is a good place to start the discussion of this race — because he, like so many
in this race, likes to come from well off the pace. The race drew a respectable-sized field, but
it didn't draw much pace. So, it plays
right into Bandua's hands. Bandua
doesn't always make the top, but in his better races he runs on or near the
lead, and none of his foes have early pace to rival his. From the fence Adam Beschizza should be able
to send him, save ground, and have plenty left in the lane. Bandua also has a
pinch of Arlington form; he has raced over the course once, and ran third
behind Analyze It and Carrick in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) last year. All in all?
Bandua won't be a short price, but with a defined pace advantage and the
stamina to get nine and a half furlongs, he is the one to beat.
El Picaro makes his second North American start for
trainer Ignacio Correas. Correas has an
excellent sense for which South American horses will do well in the US, and
knows how to get them ready...eventually.
I only say eventually because he rarely fires big off the layoff; his
horses typically need a start or two to round into their best. El Picaro made his first North American start
and his first start at all in seven and a half months, in last month's Wise Dan
(G2) at Churchill. El Picaro stuck
around for sixth in a field of 13, beaten only three and a half lengths in a
field significantly tougher than the Arlington Handicap drew. It was a positive sign for El Picaro's
continued campaign in the United States.
As with so many in this field, pace is the question. But, El Picaro does not need to drop all the
way back to the clouds, he gets the top local rider in Jose Valdivia, and he is
already a winner at a mile and a quarter in Chile. He is a horse with upside, more upside than
most in this field.
It has been a few years since Florent Geroux rode in Chicago
day in and day out, but when he does come to Arlington on a big day, watch
out. He has built a reputation for
riding well on big days, and when he returns to this track he knows so well, he
typically makes an impact. Of course, he
has to have the horse, and Cullum Road is plenty of horse for this
modest renewal of the Arlington Handicap.
Like El Picaro, he comes out of the Wise Dan, though he dropped too far
off the pace and only picked off a few horses late. Still, other recent races suggest Cullum Road
does not have to drop quite so far back, and they also suggest that the mile
and a sixteenth of the Wise Dan was too short for him. Trainer Mike Maker comes to Ride to the
Million Day locked and loaded, and should have Cullum Road right back in his
sweet spot.
Selections
#1 Bandua (7/2)
#5 El Picaro (9/2)
#9 Cullum Road (9/2)
Longshot: #2
Botswana (30/1) took a while to get going, dropping to maiden claiming
levels as cheap as $20,000 last year before finding his stride in protected
company on the grass. This is a class
test; he has been holding his own in first- and second-level allowances on the
"A" circuits this spring, but he hasn't tried stakes company. He does need sharp improvement, but with only
nine starts underneath him, the four-year-old son of Graydar still has upside. And, from a pace perspective. Botswana may not outjump Bandua to the lead,
but he reliably finds a spot near the front.
Botswana has the tactical speed so many others in this field lack. And, don't be surprised if sharp, aggressive
local rider Mitchell Murrill uses that to full advantage.
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