Handicapper's Corner: Head-to-Head Handicapping the 2019 Haskell Invitational (G1)

Head-to-Head Handicapping the Haskell Invitational

ThoroFan handicappers John Caro and Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate) go head-to-head in handicapping the Haskell Invitational (G1). They both like the same horses, but betting strategies differ.  

JOHN CARO

I’ll dispense with the usual individual list of players as I know those of you reading this have your program in your hand, so I’ll give you my overall view of the race. Fast and Furious appears to be the name of the game as all but one runner, Everfast, love the front or press very close to the pace. So I think we are looking for a versatile fellow who might stay a little off the pace and fire up at a key point in the race and a jock who can time the finish to his horse’s best advantage.

ROBERT MARKS

With Saratoga’s Saturday card cancelled due to the excessive heat forecast, expect a lot of eyeballs to be watching and betting this race.

JOHN CARO	ROBERT MARKS
#1 - King for a Day and #5 – Mucho Gusto have shown their ability to set off the pace in fairly fast split times to win. King was able to win here last time out against Maximum Security in a hot pace.	#1 King for a Day– This lightly raced Pletcher colt will be our win bet. Comes off a win on this track on 6/19/19 going 1 1/16 with Maximum Security 2nd. He has been working very well at Belmont and Saratoga with a sharp 4-furlong work at the Spa last week suggesting he has remained in great form. If he can save ground on the rail there is no reason, he can’t repeat his prior Monmouth performance. Will be a steal if he stays at 5-2 or higher.
I suspect Lezcano will take back with #2- Joevia and let Max and #4 - Bethlehem Road duel in front.  Lezcano has been wicked good at Saratoga the past week doing just that to bring home the bacon if his boss gives him the green light.	#5 Mucho Gusto – Bob Baffert always loves to ship into Monmouth and run in the Haskell and this year is no exception. All this horse does in come in the money (7-7) with 5 wins. He should show some early speed. Has trained well coming into this race. Will have to run his best race speed wise to match King for a Day.
Both Bethlehem Road and #3 – Spun to Run are scary fast and probably set up the race for other. Paco Lopez is super-hot at Monmouth and is always aggressive in this situation.	#7 Maximum Security – Your 2019 Kentucky Derby winner who was then disqualified and placed 17th looks to get back on the winning board after placing 2nd to King for a Day last time out on this same racetrack. His workouts since then have not been sharp. He will be up on the early pace with King for a Day and the others but I see a regression here and will pass on any win bets for this one.
Lastly, there is the dead closer, #6 – Everfast, who has made me so much money in the Holy Bull that I thought we all had something in a true closer but then came the next three awful races before he broke into his dance to come second in the Preakness at 29-1. Unreliable? Sure. But don’t be fooled. This may be the perfect setup for a true closer.

Handigambling:

JOHN CARO	ROBERT MARKS
No question in my mind who is the best horse in this race by his record and he has the speed to get it done, Maximum Security. There will be challenges to overcome but he has to be played as a key in any bet. My suggested bets are below with $100.	My strategy will be keying on King for a Day to win and putting him on top of my Exacta’s and Trifecta’s. Here is my $100 worth of betting for the race.
$2.50 Trifecta ($50) 7 with 1,2,5,6 with All $1.50 Trifecta ($30 *) 1,2,5,6 with 7 with All       $1.00 Trifecta ($20 *) 1,2,5,6 with All with 7	Trifecta ($5 Box for $10 total) 7/5,6/5,6
$22 Exacta - 7 with 5 $10 Exacta – 7 with 1 $4 Exacta – 7 with 2 $4 Exacta – 7 with 6 $3 Exacta – 7 with 3 $3 Exacta – 7 with 4	Exacta Key Box: ($10 for $40 total)  1/5,7
	Win Bet ($50) 1

Final Thoughts:

John:  See the site below to calculate your Trifectas.

https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling-calculator

Exacta Betting - To help with calculating your Exacta bets see the site below which is based on a $2 bet.

http://www.pharosgaming.com/FairExactaPayouts.html

Robert: As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!