Handicapper's Corner: 2022 CoolmoreTurf Mile (G1)

 Longshot Plays in the Coolmore Turf Mile

By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

 

This grassy one mile race has been a staple of the fall meet at Keeneland since 1986 when it was named the Keeneland Breeder’s Cup stakes and run at 1 1/8 miles. 

The race was shortened to Saturday’s distance in 1994 and was elevated to G1 status in 2001.  In 2004 it was renamed the Shadwell Turf Mile. 

No matter the name, past winners include Wise Dan, Itsallgreektome, Steinlen and Gio Ponti – not too shabby a list. Its Grade 1 status and $1 million purse makes it a very attractive race to win. 

Sprinkle in the fact that it is a major prep to the Breeder’s Cup Mile run at this very track 4 weeks hence adds to the intrigue.  It is no wonder the race drew an full field of 12 with 4 horses on the AE list.  Firm turf is expected under a glorious sunny fall day with temps in the low 60’s. 

 

A full field of 12 ensures that trip will matter.  Pace will matter.  Usually, these races are not won by open lengths and this handicapper will demand value. 

One could wonder if some trainers will have their charges “fully cranked” for this event or will it be a “prep” for the big prize in a month?  I can think of 1 million reasons to win on Saturday so we will look at this event as if everyone is 100% ready to rock but we will keep the Breeder’s Cup in the back of our mind.

 

    1.   Classic Causeway 20/1 (J. Leparoux; K. McPeek)  A 3yo G1 winner on the turf who has speed in longer races cuts back to this mile.  Breaking from the rail, he has no choice but to go.  Is he fast enough to make the lead against older, battle tested runners?  Most likely no.  If so, he could would have to run WAY faster than he has in the past.  OUTSIDER

 

    2.   Smooth Like Straight 9/2 (JR Velazques; M. McCarthy)  Another G1 winner with speed is a proven miler being out of the money only once in 12 tries at the distance. He was 2^nd in last year’s B’Cup Mile.  He always seems like he is in the picture but more of a bride’s maid than the bride.  He will be on or pressing the pace.  CONTENDER

 

    3.   Order of Australia 8/1 (C. Soumillon; A. O’Brien)  A 73-1 winner of the Mile in 2020 when the Breeder’s Cup was last held at Keeneland, this Aiden O’Brien charge was nowhere in last year’s rendition of today’s race.  This year he is a 5yo and has followed the same general schedule as 2021 wining a 7f Group 2 in Ireland in July.  Perhaps he can find the ’20 magic again.  I’m not betting on it. OUTSIDER

             

    4.   Grey’s Fable 30/1 (B. Hernandez Jr; B. Lynch)  Seems a cut below these.  He has won some minor stakes in his career but nothing of this caliber. OUTSIDER

 

    5.   Masen 12/1 (F. Prat; C. Brown) 2^nd in the Maker’s Mark Mile, the spring equivalent to this race, looked like he could be the next greatest turfer from the Chad Brown juggernaut.  Although Masen has 2 wins and 2 in the money finishes from 4 starts, I feel he has been a bit of a disappointment up to now.  He will need to improve to win or hit the board. OUTSIDER

 

    6.   Ivar (BRZ) 6/1 (J. Talamo; P. Lobo)  This Brazilian bred has run some monster races in winning this event 2 years ago and running 4^th beat 2 lengths last year.  He had an eventful trip up at Woodbine in his last chasing the Euro monster Modern Games.  He always shows up.  CONTENDER

 

    7.   Santin 7/2 (T. Gaffalione; B. Walsh) A Godolphin homebred who has knocked off 2 G1 races this year, both at CD.  His changed his style this spring becoming a stalker.  I LOVE when horses seem to learn something and change.  Santin fits this bill.  I assume he is pointing to the Mile and not the Turf by running here.  This is a serious horse with a ton of ability.  If Brendan Walsh can keep getting him to improve, he is a big threat. CONTENDER

 

    8.    Annapolis 10/1 (I. Ortiz Jr.; T. Pletcher) A developing 3yo with seemingly endless upside, Annapolis seems to have some gears.  He can lead, stalk or close.  This is an ambitious spot from Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher who has carved out a decent living spotting his horses.  He belongs.  CONTENDER

 

    9.   Casa Creed 5/1 (L. Saez; W. Mott) Another multiple G1 winner.  This one has won from 6f to 8f in his last two appearances.  He will appreciate any pace up front for his late run.  No real knocks on this guy.  I expect another big effort but he will need to find a way through or around to get there first.  CONTENDER

 

    10. Somelikeithotbrown 12/1 (J. Ortiz; M. Maker) Another entrant who likes it on the engine exits a G3 score at Kentucky Downs in his last effort.  A winner of more than $1.6 million, this 6yo would be great to own.  He always tries hard, ran 3^rd in last year’s edition and has beat a few of these on occasion.  UNDERNEATH CHANCE

 

    11. Emaraaty 12/1 (F. Geroux; C. Brown) Another Chad Brown entry today who blitzed the G2 Bernard Baruch closing day at Saratoga.  The turf was on the soft side of good that day as the later races were rained off.  The conditions may have helped him.  That said, as mentioned before, perhaps he learned something by showing big speed that day.  He is improving and if he can get over and control the pace…LONGSHOT CHANCE

 

    12. Set Piece 15/1 (J. Rosario; B. Cox) A G2 winner and G1 placed deep closer should get the pace he needs to make his run.  If he gets a clean run late, he may have a say. He has never “broken through” at this level.  UNDERNEATH CHANCE

 

    13. AE- Atone 20/1 (R. Santana; M. Maker)  I’ve always thought this Maker charge had some talent.  I’m not convinced he has G1 talent, especially breaking from the outside.  This is a tall order for him but he was 2^nd to Somelikeithotbrown in last. OUTSIDER

 

    14. AE- Dark Shift (GB) 20/1 (V. Cheminaud; C. Murphy) Two wins in 4 starts this season where he has run against 83 horses!  That means he beat all but 12 of them as his 11^th of 27 hurt his stats.  That’s impressive but none of them were of this caliber.  OUTSIDER

 

    15. AE- Natural Power (IRE) 30/1 (A. Beschizza; J. Hiles)  A five time winner but no graded stakes.  PASS

 

    16. AE- Greyes Creek 50/1 (G. Corrales; P. Lobo)  This one has always hinted at being a nice one but seems to have been plagued by injuries with only 13 starts as a 6yo.  OUTSIDER

 

Summary:    

What a race!  There are a lot of ways to go in here.  As a rule, in full field turf races, I tend to look for horses that can “trip out” because the best trip and not the best horse usually wins on the day.  And for me, that means horses that will be running in the 1^st half of the field. 

Deep closers, even when they get pace to run into, must negotiate either losing ground going around or find holes that are open only for an instant.  They may make one hole but another closes.  Best of luck if they get up in time. 

 

That said, I am taking a swing with Annapolis as my top play.  He is an improving 3yo from a Hall of Famer.  He will be forwardly placed and will get first run on the backers.  His 10-1 morning line and the services of Irad Ortiz Jr make him a juicy proposition. 

I expect him to tuck behind Classic Causeway, Smooth Like Straight and Emaraaty.  If good enough, he will get his run. 

Santin will relish the cutback to 1 mile.  He shouldn’t be too far back as he has the stamina from his longer efforts to get in the race sooner than later.  He will be rolling from mid pack.  I would expect him to be somewhere around his morning line of 7/2 when the gates open. 

I’ve chosen another price horse in Emaraaty to get in the number.  He clearly needs to run the race of his life to win but if Florent sends him, he has the speed to clear and control.  The speed of the speed is always dangerous on turf, especially when the other speeds are either cutting back (Classic Causeway) or have shown the ability to rate (Smooth Like Straight).   

For the underneath slots, I am looking at Ivar, Casa Creed and Smooth Like Straight. 

My Play, based on $100 wagered

$50 win Annapolis

$10 exacta box Annapolis/Santin

$3 exacta box Annapolis/Santin/Emaraaty

 $1 trifecta Key Annapolis/Santin, Emaraaty, Ivar, Smooth Like Straight

Good Luck!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Fourstardave Handicap (G1)

 Longshot worth a look in Fourstardave Handicap

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

Turf milers find the spotlight this weekend at Saratoga, where they will compete in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1).   

 

The race offers a $500,000 purse, as well as a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) at Keeneland this November.

 

The contest was given Grade 1 status in 2016, and reflecting that, the Fourstardave has been an excellent source of Breeders’ Cup Mile winners in the last ten years. Wise Dan (2012, 2013) swept that double twice. Tourist (2016) did it two years later, and then World Approval (2017) won them both as well. Even though Got Stormy (2019, 2021) never won the Breeders’ Cup Mile, in 2019 she completed the exacta, which also franks the form of this race.

This race takes its name from one of the most iconic horses in the history of the Spa. The New York-bred Fourstardave came alive every summer for trainer Leo O’Brien, winning at least one race at Saratoga every year from 1987 through 1994. That includes both the 1990 and 1991 runnings of the Daryl’s Joy Stakes: this same race, which took his name in 1996. Fourstardave led the post parade that first year it was named after him, galloped down the stretch before the race, and even visited the winners’ circle after Da Hoss won.

Saturday, August 13

Race 10: Fourstardave Stakes (G1), three-year-olds and up, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 6:13pm EDT

Usually there is a separate Longshot section, but this is a field of five with a longshot who looks like he can win the whole thing.  So, let’s switch things up and lead with the longshot!

In a field of just five, speed is often king, and Get Smokin has the speed to make the top and attempt to lead this field all the way around. He should have a clear path to the front from the outside gate, but with so few horses, there is not a serious fear of ground loss.

Though he finished fourth in the Forbidden Apple (G3) last time out, he tried to come from off the pace. He made better account in the Arlington (G3) two starts ago, where he made the top and just got nailed by Admission Office late. That was over a mile and a sixteenth; this flat mile suits Get Smokin better.

Also note that Get Smokin’s trainer Mark Casse has been synonymous with the Fourstardave in recent years. Between World Approval and Got Stormy, Casse has won three of the last five editions of the Fourstardave. Furthermore, even though Get Smokin only finished fourth in his last race, unlike many Grade 1 races, a look through recent winners of the Fourstardave turns up several fourth- and fifth-place finishers in their previous start.

Trainer Chad Brown sends out a pair in this race: one of the few top-level turf prizes he has yet to win. The better of them is Regal Glory, winner of her last four starts. Though she is facing males for the first time, she is a stone-cold miler and she is fast enough to be a serious contender in this open race. With pace versatility and a three-for-three record at Saratoga, there are many reasons why Regal Glory is likely the most imposing horse who Get Smokin is going to have to hold off in those final stages of the Fourstardave.

Brown’s other, Masen, has more to prove. Though he has not run a bad race in three starts in the United States, his last two have come against softer company and he needs a clear step up from his win in the Poker (G3) last out to beat his stablemate. He is a perfect example of: sure, he could bounce back, but in such a short field you have to take your stands, and with Masen likely to be such a short price others appeal more.

One of those who appeals a bit more than Masen is Casa Creed. Though his Grade 1 wins have come at six furlongs, he can stretch out to a mile as well, and has been particularly effective doing so at the Spa. Casa Creed won the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) going a mile on the Saratoga grass, and was third in the Fourstardave last year. Though Casa Creed has been off since winning the Jaipur (G1) in June, that is the same route he took last year. He is also trained by Bill Mott: winner of a record four editions of the Fourstardave.

Front Run the Fed completes the field. His name is a bit ironic: he is no frontrunner, but rather the truest closer in the field. With a short field and a pace unlikely to fall apart, that does not play to his strengths. He also tends to find his classier form going a sprint distance, not this one-mile trip.

 

Selections:

#5 Get Smokin (8-1)

#3 Regal Glory (6-5)

#1 Casa Creed (5-2)