Longshot Plays in the Coolmore Turf Mile
By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
The race was shortened to Saturday’s distance in 1994 and was elevated to G1 status in 2001. In 2004 it was renamed the Shadwell Turf Mile.
No matter the name, past winners include Wise Dan, Itsallgreektome, Steinlen and Gio Ponti – not too shabby a list. Its Grade 1 status and $1 million purse makes it a very attractive race to win.
Sprinkle in the fact that it is a major prep to the Breeder’s Cup Mile run at this very track 4 weeks hence adds to the intrigue. It is no wonder the race drew an full field of 12 with 4 horses on the AE list. Firm turf is expected under a glorious sunny fall day with temps in the low 60’s.
A full field of 12 ensures that trip will matter. Pace will matter. Usually, these races are not won by open lengths and this handicapper will demand value.
One could wonder if some trainers will have their charges “fully cranked” for this event or will it be a “prep” for the big prize in a month? I can think of 1 million reasons to win on Saturday so we will look at this event as if everyone is 100% ready to rock but we will keep the Breeder’s Cup in the back of our mind.
1. Classic Causeway 20/1 (J. Leparoux; K. McPeek) A 3yo G1 winner on the turf who has speed in longer races cuts back to this mile. Breaking from the rail, he has no choice but to go. Is he fast enough to make the lead against older, battle tested runners? Most likely no. If so, he could would have to run WAY faster than he has in the past. OUTSIDER
2. Smooth Like Straight 9/2 (JR Velazques; M. McCarthy) Another G1 winner with speed is a proven miler being out of the money only once in 12 tries at the distance. He was 2nd in last year’s B’Cup Mile. He always seems like he is in the picture but more of a bride’s maid than the bride. He will be on or pressing the pace. CONTENDER
3. Order of Australia 8/1 (C. Soumillon; A. O’Brien) A 73-1 winner of the Mile in 2020 when the Breeder’s Cup was last held at Keeneland, this Aiden O’Brien charge was nowhere in last year’s rendition of today’s race. This year he is a 5yo and has followed the same general schedule as 2021 wining a 7f Group 2 in Ireland in July. Perhaps he can find the ’20 magic again. I’m not betting on it. OUTSIDER
4. Grey’s Fable 30/1 (B. Hernandez Jr; B. Lynch) Seems a cut below these. He has won some minor stakes in his career but nothing of this caliber. OUTSIDER
5. Masen 12/1 (F. Prat; C. Brown) 2nd in the Maker’s Mark Mile, the spring equivalent to this race, looked like he could be the next greatest turfer from the Chad Brown juggernaut. Although Masen has 2 wins and 2 in the money finishes from 4 starts, I feel he has been a bit of a disappointment up to now. He will need to improve to win or hit the board. OUTSIDER
6. Ivar (BRZ) 6/1 (J. Talamo; P. Lobo) This Brazilian bred has run some monster races in winning this event 2 years ago and running 4th beat 2 lengths last year. He had an eventful trip up at Woodbine in his last chasing the Euro monster Modern Games. He always shows up. CONTENDER
7. Santin 7/2 (T. Gaffalione; B. Walsh) A Godolphin homebred who has knocked off 2 G1 races this year, both at CD. His changed his style this spring becoming a stalker. I LOVE when horses seem to learn something and change. Santin fits this bill. I assume he is pointing to the Mile and not the Turf by running here. This is a serious horse with a ton of ability. If Brendan Walsh can keep getting him to improve, he is a big threat. CONTENDER
8. Annapolis 10/1 (I. Ortiz Jr.; T. Pletcher) A developing 3yo with seemingly endless upside, Annapolis seems to have some gears. He can lead, stalk or close. This is an ambitious spot from Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher who has carved out a decent living spotting his horses. He belongs. CONTENDER
9. Casa Creed 5/1 (L. Saez; W. Mott) Another multiple G1 winner. This one has won from 6f to 8f in his last two appearances. He will appreciate any pace up front for his late run. No real knocks on this guy. I expect another big effort but he will need to find a way through or around to get there first. CONTENDER
10. Somelikeithotbrown 12/1 (J. Ortiz; M. Maker) Another entrant who likes it on the engine exits a G3 score at Kentucky Downs in his last effort. A winner of more than $1.6 million, this 6yo would be great to own. He always tries hard, ran 3rd in last year’s edition and has beat a few of these on occasion. UNDERNEATH CHANCE
11. Emaraaty 12/1 (F. Geroux; C. Brown) Another Chad Brown entry today who blitzed the G2 Bernard Baruch closing day at Saratoga. The turf was on the soft side of good that day as the later races were rained off. The conditions may have helped him. That said, as mentioned before, perhaps he learned something by showing big speed that day. He is improving and if he can get over and control the pace…LONGSHOT CHANCE
12. Set Piece 15/1 (J. Rosario; B. Cox) A G2 winner and G1 placed deep closer should get the pace he needs to make his run. If he gets a clean run late, he may have a say. He has never “broken through” at this level. UNDERNEATH CHANCE
13. AE- Atone 20/1 (R. Santana; M. Maker) I’ve always thought this Maker charge had some talent. I’m not convinced he has G1 talent, especially breaking from the outside. This is a tall order for him but he was 2nd to Somelikeithotbrown in last. OUTSIDER
14. AE- Dark Shift (GB) 20/1 (V. Cheminaud; C. Murphy) Two wins in 4 starts this season where he has run against 83 horses! That means he beat all but 12 of them as his 11th of 27 hurt his stats. That’s impressive but none of them were of this caliber. OUTSIDER
15. AE- Natural Power (IRE) 30/1 (A. Beschizza; J. Hiles) A five time winner but no graded stakes. PASS
16. AE- Greyes Creek 50/1 (G. Corrales; P. Lobo) This one has always hinted at being a nice one but seems to have been plagued by injuries with only 13 starts as a 6yo. OUTSIDER
Summary:
What a race! There are a lot of ways to go in here. As a rule, in full field turf races, I tend to look for horses that can “trip out” because the best trip and not the best horse usually wins on the day. And for me, that means horses that will be running in the 1st half of the field.
Deep closers, even when they get pace to run into, must negotiate either losing ground going around or find holes that are open only for an instant. They may make one hole but another closes. Best of luck if they get up in time.
That said, I am taking a swing with Annapolis as my top play. He is an improving 3yo from a Hall of Famer. He will be forwardly placed and will get first run on the backers. His 10-1 morning line and the services of Irad Ortiz Jr make him a juicy proposition.
I expect him to tuck behind Classic Causeway, Smooth Like Straight and Emaraaty. If good enough, he will get his run.
Santin will relish the cutback to 1 mile. He shouldn’t be too far back as he has the stamina from his longer efforts to get in the race sooner than later. He will be rolling from mid pack. I would expect him to be somewhere around his morning line of 7/2 when the gates open.
I’ve chosen another price horse in Emaraaty to get in the number. He clearly needs to run the race of his life to win but if Florent sends him, he has the speed to clear and control. The speed of the speed is always dangerous on turf, especially when the other speeds are either cutting back (Classic Causeway) or have shown the ability to rate (Smooth Like Straight).
For the underneath slots, I am looking at Ivar, Casa Creed and Smooth Like Straight.
My Play, based on $100 wagered
$50 win Annapolis
$10 exacta box Annapolis/Santin
$3 exacta box Annapolis/Santin/Emaraaty
$1 trifecta Key Annapolis/Santin, Emaraaty, Ivar, Smooth Like Straight
Good Luck!
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