Euros Could Take Command of the Q.E. II Challenge Cup
By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off
The most important recent winner of the Queen Elizabeth II is Rushing Fall (2018), who had won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) the year before and went on to be named the champion turf female of 2020. Rushing Fall finished a good second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf during her championship year — just a head in front of Harvey’s Lil Goil, who returned quickly from winning the 2020 Queen Elizabeth II to run third in that same race.
2012 winner Dayatthespa also went on to become a champion. She went on to win the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) as well as the First Lady (G1) that year, cementing top turf mare honors.
Saturday, October 15 — Keeneland
Race 9: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, three-year-old fillies, one and one eighth miles on the dirt, post time 5:16pm EDT
Typically, European-based speed does not appear to prevail in an American horse race. But it might in a short field with no other speed. That is what we get here with #7 Paris Peacock, the improving runner who Jessica Harrington brings over from Ireland for American-based owners Glen Hill Farm.
She tracked right off the pace two back when breaking her maiden in a listed race at Gowran, and then was forward early before settling back and re-rallying when winning a Group 3 at Gowran last out.
Both of those wins came at 1 3/16 miles, raising the question of whether 1 1/8 miles is just too short, though she is an improving type who should get a pace advantage in this spot. Especially with high-percentage American rider Florent Geroux aboard, it appears Paris Peacock found the right spot.
#5 Bellabel won the Blue Norther earlier this year tracking a downright pedestrian pace and opening up late, and that race was only a flat mile. She is an even better horse now than she was so early this year, as shown in her two most recent starts. Yes, she was a clear second in her only nine-furlong try, but that came behind Spendarella, a proper Group 1 horse who ran second at Royal Ascot earlier this year. That is plenty of class to take to this spot, and with her tactical speed, she should be able to carve a trip.
Trainer Chad Brown has been a force in the QEII in recent years. He has won the race four times total, all in the last ten years, including three out of the last four runnings. This year, he sends out both #6 McKulick and #2 Gina Romantica.
Between the two, odds-on morning-line chalk McKulick is the more class-proven. However, her better form against class horses has come with more pace in front of her and going a longer distance. Her class has a good chance to get her into the picture underneath, though she sill be underlaid in the win pool.
Gina Romantica has class to prove, as her only stakes win came in restricted company. However, this Into Mischief half to Gift Box has some upside on the stretch out to her longest distance yet, and she showed some ability to adapt closer to the pace when clearing her first-level allowance condition over dirt back in May. In a race that may come down to tactics, this gives Gina Romantica an interesting win chance at a better price than her stablemate.
Selections:
#7 Paris Peacock (10/1)
#5 Bellabel (5/1)
#2 Gina Romantica (7/2)
Longshot: #1 California Angel (15/1) made her name coming from the clouds last year in the Jessamine (G2) over this course, but she showed an interesting new dimension in the Dueling Grounds Oaks on September 5. She did not run on the pace, but she did not drop as far back as she had been. Perhaps part of that was a function of the distance of that last race, as the 1 5/16 miles were longer than she had ever gone.
However, this 1 1/8 miles is still longer than she has gone in any start other than that one, suggesting she may not have to drop all the way back. With that, her strong effort at Keeneland last year, and her ability to handle just a bit of cut in the ground (a distinct possibility with some rain in the forecast Saturday), California Angel may be a live price horse once again.
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