Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Fayette Stakes (G2)

Competitive Field in Fayette Stakes

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

This is the last stakes race on the closing day of the Keeneland fall meet. Don’t stress plenty more next week for the Breeders Cup. Weather should be ideal for the race. Small but competitive field with six going the nine furlongs.

 

#1 West Will Power (4-1) – Cox/Rosario – Since moving to the Cox barn, he’s lost by a head in August in his first race since September 2021, rested for some 55 days, and won on the front from post #1 going this distance. The tactic of front running may suit well in this field. Rosario is pretty handy and doling out fractions and getting the job done. I like him as a top pick.

#2 Chess Chief (10-1) – Stewart/Gutierrez – An old War Horse with nearly a million to his name, his speed figures so declined form. He has not done well at this distance. It’s unlikely we’ll see him in the money. Could be in the bottom of a Superfecta.

#3 Fulsome (3-1) – Cox/Geroux – Eight-time winner with one point one million in the bank. His recent run in the AckAck was not so good coming off a break, but this is a second start, and improvement is likely. He has won at this distance and is one for two trying. He seems to prefer one and a sixteenth and likes to move at the top of the stretch to close the deal. I’ll play him in exactas with his stablemate.

#4 First Captain (6/5) – McGaughey/Saez – The odds maker likes this late closing four-year-old. Can’t blame them. He’s been in the money eight of his nine races. He’s been going ten furlongs in his last two against stiff competition. No question he’s a contender here, but the price seems prohibitive. I’ll hook him up with the Cox runners hoping to get a bargain.

#5 King Fury (8-1) – McPeek/Hernandez – Loved him in the Lexington last year and made a lot of cash. But he’s not paid me since. This is a very strong team together, but the colt is not my choice to compete with those above. Bottom of a Trifecta/Superfecta.

#6 Last Samurai (6-1) – Lukas/Gaffalione – Not sure what to make out of his performances since coming to Lukas’ barn because even with the same jockey, his winning ways have faded. He gets the current top jockey at the meet (it could change by the time we race), and he’s coming off a 64-day break. The works look good. He’s the other speed in the race if he is in good form. I’m thinking Tyler is going to be somewhat close to the pace. I give him a chance to win but prefer him in second.

Handigambling – If the favorite is the winner, there is little money in this race. I prefer others and will lay the favorite.

$5 Exacta Box – 1, 3, 6     $30

$3 Trifecta – 1 with 3, 4, 6 with 3, 4, 6    $18

$1 Superfecta – 1 with 3, 4, 6 with 3, 4, 6 with All    $18

If you believe the favorite is the winner, here is the bet:

$2 Superfecta – 6 with 1, 3, 4, with 1, 3, 4, with All   $36