Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Fourstardave Handicap (G1)

 Longshot worth a look in Fourstardave Handicap

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

Turf milers find the spotlight this weekend at Saratoga, where they will compete in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1).   

 

The race offers a $500,000 purse, as well as a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) at Keeneland this November.

 

The contest was given Grade 1 status in 2016, and reflecting that, the Fourstardave has been an excellent source of Breeders’ Cup Mile winners in the last ten years. Wise Dan (2012, 2013) swept that double twice. Tourist (2016) did it two years later, and then World Approval (2017) won them both as well. Even though Got Stormy (2019, 2021) never won the Breeders’ Cup Mile, in 2019 she completed the exacta, which also franks the form of this race.

This race takes its name from one of the most iconic horses in the history of the Spa. The New York-bred Fourstardave came alive every summer for trainer Leo O’Brien, winning at least one race at Saratoga every year from 1987 through 1994. That includes both the 1990 and 1991 runnings of the Daryl’s Joy Stakes: this same race, which took his name in 1996. Fourstardave led the post parade that first year it was named after him, galloped down the stretch before the race, and even visited the winners’ circle after Da Hoss won.

Saturday, August 13

Race 10: Fourstardave Stakes (G1), three-year-olds and up, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 6:13pm EDT

Usually there is a separate Longshot section, but this is a field of five with a longshot who looks like he can win the whole thing.  So, let’s switch things up and lead with the longshot!

In a field of just five, speed is often king, and Get Smokin has the speed to make the top and attempt to lead this field all the way around. He should have a clear path to the front from the outside gate, but with so few horses, there is not a serious fear of ground loss.

Though he finished fourth in the Forbidden Apple (G3) last time out, he tried to come from off the pace. He made better account in the Arlington (G3) two starts ago, where he made the top and just got nailed by Admission Office late. That was over a mile and a sixteenth; this flat mile suits Get Smokin better.

Also note that Get Smokin’s trainer Mark Casse has been synonymous with the Fourstardave in recent years. Between World Approval and Got Stormy, Casse has won three of the last five editions of the Fourstardave. Furthermore, even though Get Smokin only finished fourth in his last race, unlike many Grade 1 races, a look through recent winners of the Fourstardave turns up several fourth- and fifth-place finishers in their previous start.

Trainer Chad Brown sends out a pair in this race: one of the few top-level turf prizes he has yet to win. The better of them is Regal Glory, winner of her last four starts. Though she is facing males for the first time, she is a stone-cold miler and she is fast enough to be a serious contender in this open race. With pace versatility and a three-for-three record at Saratoga, there are many reasons why Regal Glory is likely the most imposing horse who Get Smokin is going to have to hold off in those final stages of the Fourstardave.

Brown’s other, Masen, has more to prove. Though he has not run a bad race in three starts in the United States, his last two have come against softer company and he needs a clear step up from his win in the Poker (G3) last out to beat his stablemate. He is a perfect example of: sure, he could bounce back, but in such a short field you have to take your stands, and with Masen likely to be such a short price others appeal more.

One of those who appeals a bit more than Masen is Casa Creed. Though his Grade 1 wins have come at six furlongs, he can stretch out to a mile as well, and has been particularly effective doing so at the Spa. Casa Creed won the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) going a mile on the Saratoga grass, and was third in the Fourstardave last year. Though Casa Creed has been off since winning the Jaipur (G1) in June, that is the same route he took last year. He is also trained by Bill Mott: winner of a record four editions of the Fourstardave.

Front Run the Fed completes the field. His name is a bit ironic: he is no frontrunner, but rather the truest closer in the field. With a short field and a pace unlikely to fall apart, that does not play to his strengths. He also tends to find his classier form going a sprint distance, not this one-mile trip.

 

Selections:

#5 Get Smokin (8-1)

#3 Regal Glory (6-5)

#1 Casa Creed (5-2)