Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1)

 8 Possibilities in Frank E. Kilroe Mile

By: The Turk

Mi Hermano Ramon: Benoit Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk Blog where I write about turf racing and exacta bet construction.  I've been a horse racing fan most of my life, but didn't seriously start to handicap until 1986, and I've been doing it ever since.  The blog started in 2008 and continues on as a labor of love.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for offering me a chance to share my thoughts on this race with you today.  

The Frank E. Kilroe Mile is a prestigious Grade 1 turf race held annually at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. Named in honor of Frank Kilroe, a longtime racing secretary and influential figure in California horse racing, the race is contested at 8 furlongs over grass and is open to horses aged four years and older. It was raced at about the classic distance of 10 furlongs until 1987 before becoming a mile event. The event is held on Big Cap Day, Santa Anita Handicap, one of the biggest and most prestigious cards of the year at the great race place.  

First run in 1960, the race was originally known as the Arcadia Handicap before being renamed in 2001 to recognize Kilroe’s contributions to the sport. Over the decades, it has attracted some of the finest turf milers in horse racing history, including champions such as Lure, Wise Dan, and Gio Ponti and the filly, Proviso. 

The Frank Kilroe Mile remains a key race on turf racing calendar. It  serves as an important early-season test for elite turf horses. Santa Anita’s scenic backdrop and fast turf course makes the Kilroe Mile an early season turf racing kick off for this handicapper as the pickings over grass are pretty slim this time of the year, and its a good handle day with the Big Cap bettors.

You'll find scratches and changes here.  The weather should be good with no rain expected until Sunday.  I'm going to assume we are on the turf track and the turf is firm.  

Let's Get after It!

1 Feb 2025 The Thunder Road G3: 1 Mile on Firm Turf SA.  Air Force Red (Show), El Potente (W), Zio Jo (4th), Cabo Spirit (5th/9th)

26 December 2024 The San Gabriel G2: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf at SA.  Mi Hermano Ramon (Place)

So what to do with all of this?  My instincts at the track would be to pass.  I really think as I handicapped there is ~ 66% chance the top two bet horses finish Win/Place.  The play for me here is to hope one of them finishes third.

1, 3 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 a $2 Exacta for $16.  If "winning" is important to you, not a bad bet selection.  If you want a long term ROI, tighten it up and take a stand:  Drop Mi Hermano Ramon to Show and single El Portente and now you have 3 over 5-6-7, a $2 Exacta for $6.  As your handicapping gets better, your hit rate will get better.   Why 5-6-7, lower morning odds horses?  Forget the Morning Line, build your own and look for horses that will be bet less on the tote board that have not so different odds than others, especially name recognition horses (Air Force Red, Cabo Spirit, Formidable Man). 

Have fun friends, Turk out!

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Fourstardave Handicap (G1)

 Longshot worth a look in Fourstardave Handicap

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

Turf milers find the spotlight this weekend at Saratoga, where they will compete in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1).   

 

The race offers a $500,000 purse, as well as a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) at Keeneland this November.

 

The contest was given Grade 1 status in 2016, and reflecting that, the Fourstardave has been an excellent source of Breeders’ Cup Mile winners in the last ten years. Wise Dan (2012, 2013) swept that double twice. Tourist (2016) did it two years later, and then World Approval (2017) won them both as well. Even though Got Stormy (2019, 2021) never won the Breeders’ Cup Mile, in 2019 she completed the exacta, which also franks the form of this race.

This race takes its name from one of the most iconic horses in the history of the Spa. The New York-bred Fourstardave came alive every summer for trainer Leo O’Brien, winning at least one race at Saratoga every year from 1987 through 1994. That includes both the 1990 and 1991 runnings of the Daryl’s Joy Stakes: this same race, which took his name in 1996. Fourstardave led the post parade that first year it was named after him, galloped down the stretch before the race, and even visited the winners’ circle after Da Hoss won.

Saturday, August 13

Race 10: Fourstardave Stakes (G1), three-year-olds and up, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 6:13pm EDT

Usually there is a separate Longshot section, but this is a field of five with a longshot who looks like he can win the whole thing.  So, let’s switch things up and lead with the longshot!

In a field of just five, speed is often king, and Get Smokin has the speed to make the top and attempt to lead this field all the way around. He should have a clear path to the front from the outside gate, but with so few horses, there is not a serious fear of ground loss.

Though he finished fourth in the Forbidden Apple (G3) last time out, he tried to come from off the pace. He made better account in the Arlington (G3) two starts ago, where he made the top and just got nailed by Admission Office late. That was over a mile and a sixteenth; this flat mile suits Get Smokin better.

Also note that Get Smokin’s trainer Mark Casse has been synonymous with the Fourstardave in recent years. Between World Approval and Got Stormy, Casse has won three of the last five editions of the Fourstardave. Furthermore, even though Get Smokin only finished fourth in his last race, unlike many Grade 1 races, a look through recent winners of the Fourstardave turns up several fourth- and fifth-place finishers in their previous start.

Trainer Chad Brown sends out a pair in this race: one of the few top-level turf prizes he has yet to win. The better of them is Regal Glory, winner of her last four starts. Though she is facing males for the first time, she is a stone-cold miler and she is fast enough to be a serious contender in this open race. With pace versatility and a three-for-three record at Saratoga, there are many reasons why Regal Glory is likely the most imposing horse who Get Smokin is going to have to hold off in those final stages of the Fourstardave.

Brown’s other, Masen, has more to prove. Though he has not run a bad race in three starts in the United States, his last two have come against softer company and he needs a clear step up from his win in the Poker (G3) last out to beat his stablemate. He is a perfect example of: sure, he could bounce back, but in such a short field you have to take your stands, and with Masen likely to be such a short price others appeal more.

One of those who appeals a bit more than Masen is Casa Creed. Though his Grade 1 wins have come at six furlongs, he can stretch out to a mile as well, and has been particularly effective doing so at the Spa. Casa Creed won the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) going a mile on the Saratoga grass, and was third in the Fourstardave last year. Though Casa Creed has been off since winning the Jaipur (G1) in June, that is the same route he took last year. He is also trained by Bill Mott: winner of a record four editions of the Fourstardave.

Front Run the Fed completes the field. His name is a bit ironic: he is no frontrunner, but rather the truest closer in the field. With a short field and a pace unlikely to fall apart, that does not play to his strengths. He also tends to find his classier form going a sprint distance, not this one-mile trip.

 

Selections:

#5 Get Smokin (8-1)

#3 Regal Glory (6-5)

#1 Casa Creed (5-2)

Handicapper's Corner: Kelso Stakes (G2)

Anticipate a Sharp Win in the Kelso

By: The Turk, Horses, Handicapping & Hijinks

   

Sharp Azteca- Jessie Holmes/Equisport Photos

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to begin by thanking The Thorofan and the Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today about Saturday's Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park.  I  appreciate my new readers and the rabid pack of hardcore degenerates that read my work regularly.

The Kelso will be a six horse affair.

Keep your eye on the scratches and changes as well as the track condition at this link.  Weather does not seem to be an issue and I would expect the track to be fast.

At first take I think the heavy chalk will be Sharp Azteca (pictured above).  Trained by Jorge Navaro with Paco Lopez up, this classy 4 YO Kentucky Bred Freud will become a millionaire the next time he hits the board, is 11 of 13 in the money lifetime, 6 of 6 in the money with 4 wins at the distance and has 9 Win-Place finishes in 11 starts on fast dirt.  Well rested and training very sharply since winning the Monmouth Cup G3 at 1 1/16 Miles by 7+ lengths it's concievable he draws off and no one catches him.

 I started fast and jumped ahead.  Let's take a step back and look at some of the other runners.

Let's Get after this!  

The Forego G1: 7f  on Fast Dirt at SAR  26 August

Four runners exit The Forego who chased Drefong.  Ross(Ire) was a non factor in the The Forego and I see no reason to make him a factor here.  Tom's Ready really came at the end and Divining Rod was gobbled up at the wire.

 The Polynesian $74K: 7F on sealed slop at LRL on 12 August  
Divining Rod over off track. Eh.  

Monmouth Cup G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt at MTH 30 July  
Sharp Azteca in a romp.  Not sure how I feel about the field but he fired well off The Met Mile.  

The Vanderbilt G1: 6F on Fast Dirt at SAR 29 July  
Bird Song.  Have to go back to early year efforts at Gulfstream to envision a win.

  Belmont Sprint G2: 7F on fast Dirt at BEL on 8 July
Tommy Macho- No match for Mind Your Biscuits.  

Met Mile G1:  1 Mile Fast Dirt at BEL on 10 June 2017  

Tom's Ready, Tommy Macho and Sharp Azteca.  I liked Tommy Macho's chase more than anything in this race.  No shame for Sharp Azteca on this day.

 What's it all add up to?
   

Sharp Azteca seemingly has the angles and has picked the right spot and avoided the right competition to add a win to his already impressive credentials.  While anything can happen on any day (blah blah blah ....fill in the blank CYA handicapper stuff) I'm going to single Sharp Azteca in my base handicap and look for a vertical betting opportunity if it presents itself, otherwise I'll stick to the horizontal Pick 3 that has potential with Race 7 a 12 horse field MSW $75K and Race 8 a 12 horse field N1X $90K.

The morning line placed Divining Rod second at 2-1 but I like Tommy Macho here.  The Pompa runner for Trainer Pletcher is 5 of 6 imn the money at Belmont, 5 of 6 at the distance, fired off a 105 career Beyer this calendar year, set a 101 in a good chase of the front running Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca in the Met Mile, and I don't think the differences in current form justify the spread in values between Tommy Macho and Divining Rod. 

So what of Diving Rod? Two starts in 2017 including a lack luster Forego and a win over no one at Laurel Park over sealed slop.  I loved his game beat by head in the Cigar Mile but that was a year ago, the fourth effort in three month stretch and he built towards that.  I like the horse, respect the connections, but if looking for value, I'm, shading him into Show or Exotic on the ticket.  

Tom's Ready can hit the board anywhere from Win to 4th.  Not overly fast, he does have tactical speed and a late turn of foot, but I think he'll be too far back to rally to Win, but rally onto the board not unrealistic.

Bird Song is a bit of a wild card.  He was no match at 6f  in The Vanderbilt.  He was no match to Tommy Macho in the Hal's Hope in early 2017.  

Ross (Ire) seems to be entered in the wrong race.

If you're compelled to bet this race, and you feel like I do that Sharp Azteca will win, you could try this:

$1 Super:  5 OVER 2-4 OVER 2-4-1 OVER 1-2-6 for $7.  It's not a big commitment and avoids a big bet and poor risk/reward.

If you feel that Sharp Azteca is vulnerable, and let's be real, this is a Grade 2 and no one here is invulnerable then possibly try $1 Super: 5-2-4 OVER 5-2-4 OVER 1-2-4 OVER 1-2-6 for $16.

OR....if you like high risk/high reward...

$1 Super:  2 Over 5-4 OVER 5-4-1 OVER 1-4-6 for $7.

I think that extinguishes my current thoughts on this edition of The Kelso. Whatever you do, have fun, keep the betting real, don't lie to yourself about your losses, and don't waste money on other people's thoughts.

Turk Out!