Who will bloom in the Apple Blossom Handicap?
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Morning Line Favorites
#4 Adare Manor – Baffert/Hernandez J.J. – Winner of $1m in earnings with five wins and two seconds against Grade I or II company in eight attempts. She took time off after losing the BC Distaff last fall, then returned to finish second in Beholder Mile. Can't deny her favoritism in this one. Carries the high weight and has never been over the track. Not my top pick.
#3 Wet Paint – Cox/Prat - Hasn't been seen since a poor showing in the BC Distaff last fall. Apparently loves Oaklawn as she won three out of three against graded company last year at 3. $1.19m winner. The works are great, and I like her coming back after her hard 3-year-old campaign. Like her as a winner here.
#7 Honor D Lady – Joseph/Castellano – Coming off a win in the Royal Delta G3 at Gulfstream from the front after the second call. Gulfstream being what it is, it's hard to beat a strong front running style. That doesn't necessarily work at Oaklawn. She also faces the front end with a couple others here. Like her underneath.
The Field
#2 Taxed – Morse/Torres – lost to Wet Paint here three out of three, skipped the Kentucky Oaks, and won the Blackeyed Susan. After that, she declined in form and took a break from September until her return to Oaklawn, winning an optional claiming race and going 6 furlongs here in mid-March. She has never won at this distance. She doesn't give me the confidence she will be in the top money. Superfecta?
#6 Misty Veil – Maker/Vasquez - She is a consistent ITM lifetime at Oaklawn and four-for-four since December. Last seen losing by a neck in the Azeri G2 on a tracking trip. She's 75% at the distance and 90% at Oaklawn. She'll carry 5 pounds less than top weight today. I'll play her underneath at 12-1 or better.
#8 Bellamor – Asmussen/Asmussen - Came in third behind Misty Veil in the Azeri after drifting out and before that, won the Houston Lady Classic G3 after changing to Asmussen's barn. That was her first run at Oaklawn, but she has never been out of the money at the distance. Another logical to play underneath at 12-1.
#9 Shotgun Hottie – DeVaux/Lopez – This is where we see speed from the outside post. Lopez has been on this lady twice, and both were wins from or near the front. I expect Paco to do what Paco does and run the feet off others for the trip. She has been training here, and she has some fast times in her preps. She might be a win contender. Gotta love the name with Paco riding; it makes sense.
Longshots
#1 Feel Like a Girl – Pomier/Manrrique - Don't know the trainer or jockey, but what I can tell you is the 5-year-old mare has $1.3m in the bank on an average of 9 races per year (mostly LS races), and when Manrrique was up last he missed by a neck to Ballamore in the Houston Lady Classic. She is one for two here, is 6 for 8 ITM at the distance, and 90% ITM for the last 10 races. These 20-1 ML odds horses with that kind of race record get overlooked. It says something about her mental ability to compete. At those odds, she has to be played with others. She'll carry the featherweight of the group. Top longshot!
#5 Flying Connection – Fincher/Santana - This Nyquist filly can be a speedball, and from that post might be a factor for Honor D Lady and Shotgun Hottie. The issue for me is Oaklawn doesn't play well with frontrunners most of the time. She is a multiple-listed stakes winner and loves the distance where she is 3 for three but in her last attempts against graded stakes winners, she did not enjoy the company. If we see a battle up front, I don't think she's stay.
Handigambling - I believe pace will deliver the outcome of this race. The frontrunners will try to wage a battle, and a mid-pack tracker will close in the long stretch to win. Let's keep today's wager around $60.
$1 Trifecta – 3 with 1,6,9 with All - $21
$.50 Trifecta – 1,6,9 with 3 with All - $10.50
$1 Exacta – All with 1 - $8
$1 Exacta – 1 with All - $8
$16 to Show on 1
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