Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (G1)

 Idiomatic defends her Crown in  Spinster Stakes Showdown

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

During Keeneland's Fall opening weekend, the $600,000 Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes is a premiere challenge event for the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

The 1 1/8 mile contest over the main oval has been a springboard to greatness for many fillies and mares. In fact, the last three winners earned year-end championship honors as the Older Dirt Female, including Idiomatic.

 

This year, Idiomatic returns to defend her crown. The last mare to win consecutive runnings of the Spinster Stakes was Blue Prize (ARG) in 2018 and 2019. However, Idiomatic must fend off five other rivals, including Candied, who lost a head decision in the Alabama Stakes (G1).

The Spinster Stakes has a 5:16 PM ET post time on Sunday. The track is expected to be fast.

Let's review the field.

1. Idiomatic (3-5) fought gallantly every step of the way in an exciting renewal of the 1 1/8 mile Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. The 5-year-old mare battled Randomized through increasingly fast fractions, and that one threw in the towel before the 1/8 pole. Leg-weary down the stretch, Curlin's daughter drifted in and out, unable to hold off the furious charge of Raging Sea and was defeated by a head. 

Idiomatic traveled 1 1/8 miles in 1:49, with a :13 final furlong, earning a career-best 104 Brisnet speed rating. Conditioned by Brad Cox, the Spinster is Idiomatic's race to lose. Win contender.

2. Candied (9-2) chased a solid pace from mid-pack in the 1 ¼ mile Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. She circled the field at the 3/8 pole but was unfocused and erratic down the stretch after a chain reaction bumping around the turn. The Todd Pletcher trainee got back on track when Power Squeeze passed, and Candied got her head back in the game and ran with that one. The pair had a thrilling battle to the wire, which Candied lost by a head. 

Candied completed 1 ¼ miles in 2:24.35 with a final quarter of 26.71; Candy Ride's daughter may enjoy the distance cut back. However, as the only 3-year-old in the Spinster, she must stay focused to prove her talent. If Idiomatic stubs a hoof, Candied may be the first to benefit. Exotics.

3. Loved (10-1) made her debut as an early 3-year-old but was given time off until the following year. She rewarded her connections with three straight victories at three different tracks, including Keeneland. The free-running mare couldn't keep up the tempo in a pair of Grade 3 contests, finishing fourth in the Molly Pitcher Stakes and a year later in the Baird Doubledogdare Stakes. 

Brendan Walsh changed Loved's running style, taking her off the pace in her next start, the Mari Hulman George Memorial Handicap at Horseshoe Indianapolis, where she outclassed her rivals by two lengths. 

Loved couldn't get it together in her last race, the Locust Grove Stakes (G2), and finished a distant sixth. This half-sister to Grade 1 hero Maxfield isn't living up to expectations, and I'm not feeling the love. Pass.

4. Honor D Lady (4-1) has finished off the board only twice in her 13-race career. As a tune-up for the Spinster, the 4-year-old daughter of Honor Code dominated the 1 3/16 mile Delaware Handicap (G2) by 5 ½ lengths over an accomplished field that included CCA Oaks (G1) heroine Wet Paint. 

The Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee completed the distance in 1:59.89 and earned a career-best 97 speed rating. Honor D Lady could emulate her distant relative, the champion Inside Information, who captured the 1995 Spinster Stakes.

5. Bow Draw (30-1) is the "why?" horse in the Spinster. She was last seen finishing a distant third against optional claimers at Churchill. She last visited the winner's circle in February, against allowance 1x types. Pass.

6. Occult (8-1) is competitive against graded and listed types, but her sole graded victory was a 10-length score in last year's Monmouth Oaks (G3). She's been knocking at the door since, placing third or fourth in four subsequent stakes. 

Most recently, she closed for second against Allowance types, unable to catch the lone speed at a mile. The Chad Brown trainee isn't a Grade 1 winning caliber filly yet, but she can pick up the pieces. Exotics.

Analysis

All but two of the last ten Spinster heroines won their last race. The Personal Ensign Stakes is the key prep; half of the Spinster winners used it as a springboard, including the previous three winners.

No particular running style is favored; pacesetters, pressers, and closers have been successful, although pacesetters captured the last three editions of the Spinster. Surprisingly, only three favorites won the Spinster, and three placed second or third.

There aren't any need-the-lead types in the Spinster; however, Idiomatic will likely contest the pace from post 1. She could be lone speed in this small field but could be closely hounded by Loved and Occult.

Honor D Lady and Candied have tactical speed. I predict a chalky finish. (cough).

Selections

1. Idiomatic (3-5)

2. Candied (9-2)

4. Honor D Lady (4-1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

 Who will bloom in the Apple Blossom Handicap?

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Welcome back to Oaklawn Park to see older fillies and mares work their magic. Forecast is excellent, with a touch of early summer temperatures. Post time for race 11 is 5:46 PM CT.

Morning Line Favorites

#4 Adare Manor – Baffert/Hernandez J.J. – Winner of $1m in earnings with five wins and two seconds against Grade I or II company in eight attempts. She took time off after losing the BC Distaff last fall, then returned to finish second in Beholder Mile. Can't deny her favoritism in this one. Carries the high weight and has never been over the track. Not my top pick.

#3 Wet Paint – Cox/Prat - Hasn't been seen since a poor showing in the BC Distaff last fall. Apparently loves Oaklawn as she won three out of three against graded company last year at 3. $1.19m winner. The works are great, and I like her coming back after her hard 3-year-old campaign. Like her as a winner here.

#7 Honor D Lady – Joseph/Castellano – Coming off a win in the Royal Delta G3 at Gulfstream from the front after the second call. Gulfstream being what it is, it's hard to beat a strong front running style. That doesn't necessarily work at Oaklawn. She also faces the front end with a couple others here. Like her underneath.

 

The Field

#2 Taxed – Morse/Torres – lost to Wet Paint here three out of three, skipped the Kentucky Oaks, and won the Blackeyed Susan. After that, she declined in form and took a break from September until her return to Oaklawn, winning an optional claiming race and going 6 furlongs here in mid-March. She has never won at this distance. She doesn't give me the confidence she will be in the top money. Superfecta?

#6 Misty Veil – Maker/Vasquez  - She is a consistent ITM lifetime at Oaklawn and four-for-four since December. Last seen losing by a neck in the Azeri G2 on a tracking trip. She's 75% at the distance and 90% at Oaklawn. She'll carry 5 pounds less than top weight today. I'll play her underneath at 12-1 or better.

#8 Bellamor – Asmussen/Asmussen  - Came in third behind Misty Veil in the Azeri after drifting out and before that, won the Houston Lady Classic G3 after changing to Asmussen's barn. That was her first run at Oaklawn, but she has never been out of the money at the distance. Another logical to play underneath at 12-1.

#9 Shotgun Hottie – DeVaux/Lopez – This is where we see speed from the outside post. Lopez has been on this lady twice, and both were wins from or near the front. I expect Paco to do what Paco does and run the feet off others for the trip. She has been training here, and she has some fast times in her preps. She might be a win contender. Gotta love the name with Paco riding; it makes sense.

 

Longshots

#1 Feel Like a Girl – Pomier/Manrrique  - Don't know the trainer or jockey, but what I can tell you is the 5-year-old mare has $1.3m in the bank on an average of 9 races per year (mostly LS races), and when Manrrique was up last he missed by a neck to Ballamore in the Houston Lady Classic. She is one for two here, is 6 for 8 ITM at the distance, and 90% ITM for the last 10 races. These 20-1 ML odds horses with that kind of race record get overlooked. It says something about her mental ability to compete. At those odds, she has to be played with others. She'll carry the featherweight of the group. Top longshot!

#5 Flying Connection – Fincher/Santana  - This Nyquist filly can be a speedball, and from that post might be a factor for Honor D Lady and Shotgun Hottie. The issue for me is Oaklawn doesn't play well with frontrunners most of the time. She is a multiple-listed stakes winner and loves the distance where she is 3 for three but in her last attempts against graded stakes winners, she did not enjoy the company. If we see a battle up front, I don't think she's stay.

 

Handigambling  - I believe pace will deliver the outcome of this race. The frontrunners will try to wage a battle, and a mid-pack tracker will close in the long stretch to win. Let's keep today's wager around $60.

$1 Trifecta – 3 with 1,6,9 with All - $21

$.50 Trifecta – 1,6,9 with 3 with All - $10.50

$1 Exacta – All with 1 - $8

$1 Exacta – 1 with All -  $8

$16 to Show on 1