Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

Dornoch & Sierra Leone headline  100th edition of Blue Grass Stakes 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello racing friends, this Saturday, ThoroFan travels to Lexington, Kentucky for the $1 million Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, an iconic springtime fixture for 3-year-olds, held at Keeneland racetrack. 

 

Eleven horses are set to go to post, including three from trainer Chad Brown and a pair from conditioner Brad Cox.

 

This year’s renewal marks the 100th running of the 1 1/8-mile race and is headlined by the top two finishers of last year’s G2 Remsen Stakes, Dornoch and Sierra Leone. As three-year-olds in 2024, both horses have acquitted themselves nicely on the Kentucky Derby trail, with the former winning the G2 Fountain of Youth and the latter having won the G2 Risen Star. The 50 points each horse earned winning their respective preps have basically assured them a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

 

For some other hopefuls looking to grab enough points to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby to be run May 6th at Churchill Downs, this major test and steppingstone offers 200 points toward qualification on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale to the first-through fifth-place finishers.

 

Post time for the Blue Grass is scheduled for 5:52 p.m., E.S.T.

 

 

 

Let’s have a brief look at the field from the rail out.

 PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML -

1 - Top Conor – Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown – 15-1 - Twirling Candy colt was a debut winner at Gulfstream Park back in mid-February. He stalked the pace before drawing clear to win by two lengths. Deep waters here.

2 - Be You – Irad Ortiz/Todd Pletcher – 8-1 - Took six starts to break his maiden which he finally did last month at Gulfstream Park. This son of Curlin showed some promise as a juvenile last season finishing fourth, beating more than half the field in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, and then was shipped out to Santa Anita where he finished third behind Muth in the American Paharoah Stakes.

3 - Seize the Grey – Nik Juarez/D. Wayne Lukas – 20-1 - The ‘Coach’ brings this son of Arrogate back on just two weeks rest following his race in the nine-furlong Jeff Ruby Stakes, where he sat mid-pack for much of the race before closing to grab the show spot at the wire. To his credit, he does have plenty of dirt experience.

4 - Dornoch – Luis Saez/Danny Gargan – 3-1 - After a couple of second place finishes in his first two starts, this son of Good Magic impressively broke his maiden at Keenland last fall. He then fought off Sierra Leone, after being passed by that rival, to win the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct in December. He started off his 3-year-old campaign easily taking the Fountain of Youth, where he was in control from the start, winning wire-to-wire.

5 - Good Money – Javier Castellano/Chad Brown – 20-1 - Another son of Good Magic. This colt was a first-time out winner at Tampa which earned him a shot in the Tampa Bay Derby where he led the field into the stretch through pedestrian fractions before tiring and fading to fourth, beaten less than a length.

6 - Just a Touch – Florent Geroux/Brad Cox – 7-2 - Son of Triple Crown winner, Justify, has made two lifetime starts, both on sloppy tracks. He was debut winner going six furlongs at Fairgrounds and then as the betting favorite he was runner-up Gotham Stakes. He makes his first start beyond one mile and gets tested around two turns here for the first time.

7 - Lat Long – Brian Hernandez/Ken McPeek – 30-1 - Son of Liam’s Map broke through maiden ranks in his fifth and final start of 2023 at Oaklawn Park. He comes off an even third-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes, his only start this season.

8 - Epic Ride – Adam Beschizza/John Ennis – 20-1 - First or second in all four starts, (2 wins, 2 seconds), all at Turfway Park, for the son of Blame. The Blue Grass Stakes will be his first attempt on dirt and in graded company.

9 - Mugatu – Joe Talamo/Jeff Engler – 30-1 - The most experienced horse in the group with eleven races, but only shows a maiden win. Subsequently, he couldn’t get the job done against allowance and lower stakes company. Unless a miracle happens, he won’t get a win picture taken here against graded company.

10 - Sierra Leone – Tyler Gafflione/Chad Brown – 2-1 - Gun Runner colt has raced just three times, but two of them are at nine furlongs, including the Remsen Stakes where he closed from 12-lengths back at the half mile mark, battled with Dornoch as both horses traded the lead back and forth through the stretch, before losing by a neck. His two-race prep campaign leaves little room for error, but the 50 points he received winning the Risen Star basically earned him a berth in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

11 - Encino – Flavien Prat/Brad Cox – 12-1 - Sired by Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist, this Godolphin home-bred broke his maiden second time out then followed up winning the John Battaglia Stakes last month at Turfway Park beating Epic Ride by one length. All three lifetime races have been over the Turfway synthetic surface. He too tries dirt and graded stakes company here for the first time.

 

ANALYSIS

In my opinion, the most likely and logical winner of this race is either Dornoch or Sierra Leone. But what horse should be bet? Take the higher-priced horse. Usually, one horse will be an underlay, the other a low-priced overlay. If both horses are underlays, pass.

Bettors can consider Dornoch and Sierra Leone to have a relatively equal chance, and the rest of the field some chance. By this reasoning, either the Danny Gargan runner or the highly touted Chad Brown entrant is a fair win bet at 2-1 odds, an underlay below those odds, and an overlay at 5-2 or greater.

If exactas are to be bet, I urge the bettor to place the overlay on top of the underlay multiple times, and the underlay atop the overlay only as a saver.

If you play trifectas, Seize the Grey, Encino and Just a Touch are the logical ones to be used along with the top two.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!